NIGERIA: ARMY MINISTER DISMISSES OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000803 SIPDIS LONDON FOR C. GURNEY CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ARMY MINISTER DISMISSES OPPOSITION THREATS OF NON-RECOGNITION REF: ABUJA 749 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) During an April 28 meeting, Ambassador Jeter and Minister of State for Defense (Army) Lawal Batagarawa discussed the recent Presidential elections. Batagarawa thought opposition candidate Mohammadu Buhari's calls to reject President Olusegun Obasanjo's electoral victory would be ineffective - most people would ignore Buhari's exhortation. He said the PDP was "opening channels of communication" to Buhari's supporters, encouraging them to take their grievances to the electoral tribunals. (COMMENT: In an April 24 meeting the Ambassador (REF), Minister of Defense T.Y. Danjuma also indicated the PDP would be reaching out to the opposition parties this week. END COMMENT.) ¶2. (C) The Ambassador suggested that President Obasanjo could ease some of the political tension and be seen as taking a conciliatory high road by publicly acknowledging the elections were defective and emphasizing the need for the electoral tribunal to cure these problems. Batagarawa responded that the President had already asked the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to look into allegations of electoral misconduct. However, the President was loathe "to make statements that would cause more problems than they would solve" by undermining both the electoral tribunals and INEC. Batagarawa expressed confidence in the Nigerian legal system and said any investigations into electoral misconduct must originate with the tribunals, not the Presidency. Batagarawa stated he would like to see international observers involved in the tribunals to enhance the credibility of the process. ¶3. (C) Citing Kano and Katsina as examples, the Minister complained ANPP used traditional rulers and religion to insure its victory in parts of the North. In addition to accusing the ANPP of threatening PDP supporters in Kano, Batagarawa said the Emir of Katsina instructed his followers to vote for Buhari. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Batagarawa was actively involved in the PDP campaign in the North and thus his views are those of an interested party. Nevertheless, his assertion of ANPP exercise of undue pressure in Northern states is credible. Batagarawa's view that the electoral tribunals would correct all the defects in the elections is overly optimistic. ¶5. (C) At bottom, Batagarawa seemed to be saying that both major parties cheated, thus the ANPP should not be complaining. While this may not be the most noble sentiment it probably dominates the PDP mind-set. END COMMENT. JETER