NIGERIA: LEGISLATIVE RESULTS AND REACTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000697

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LEGISLATIVE RESULTS AND REACTIONS


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons: 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: The Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) has posted results from about 80 percent
of the Senate and House races around the country.
Registering over 50 percent of the vote nationwide, the
ruling PDP will retain its majority in both chambers unless
there is a radical reversal in the voting trends. If this
election is a forecast of the April 19 Presidential and
gubernatorial contests, this weekend will affirm the power
of incumbency in Nigeria. President Obasanjo and the
lion's share of Governors will be returned to office.
However, there is a wide variance between INEC's official
results and the expectations of many opposition parties,
particularly the ANPP and AD. The dissonance is widespread
and opposition party leaders have been huddling to
determine next steps. Accusations of vote tampering and
manipulating tabulations are growing and many seem
credible. By reversing previously announced results in
some races, INEC has not helped matters and has only added
to the opposition's suspicions. The political temperature
has increased significantly. The April 19 election will be
tense and the specter of violence looms too near in many
places. Press reports indicate that elections that did not
hold on April 12 took place variously on April 13, 14 or 15
in areas of six states in the South-South and Southeast.
END SUMMARY.


REPORTED RESULTS
--------------



2. (C) Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) is reporting results in about 80 percent of the
Senate and House districts around the country. The ruling
PDP is almost assured of retaining its majority on both
sides of the National Assembly with 170 seats in the House
going to the PDP. (The PDP needs 181 seats for a
majority.) The ANPP has improved its representation,
winning 80 seats thus far. The AD is winning 30 seats and
other parties gaining representation include UNPP (two
seats),NDP (two),PRP (one),and AGPA (one). In the
Senate, the PDP has won 60 of the 109 seats. The ANPP has
25 seats and the AD has won just 5 seats. No other parties
have yet been awarded a Senate seat. Unless reporting
trends reverse significantly, PDP likely will be announced
as the winner of at least 15 of the remaining 19 seats in
the upper house, a significant increase in its existing
majority (68/109).



3. (U) Press reports indicate that elections that could
not hold on April 12 took place variously on April 13, 14
or 15 in areas of six states in the South-South and
Southeast -- Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Anambra, Akwa Ibom and
Cross River.




HARBINGER
--------------



4. (C) The "bandwagon effect" is said to be the
irresistible force in Nigerian electoral politics.
Consequently, many Nigerians see these results as a preview
of the gubernatorial and Presidential elections scheduled
for April 19. If the legislative returns are indicative of
this Saturday's likely outcome, the PDP could be expected
to maintain its current 21 gubernatorial seats and perhaps
capture a few state capitals in the Southwest. The results
from April 12 would indicate that the incumbent PDP
President Obasanjo could expect to win at least 55 percent
of the popular vote. The ANPP would not exceed 30 percent
of the national vote, with little hope of gaining much
ground by teaming with any of the other opposition parties,
except for the AD (which is more likely to stand aloof than
to join forces with Buhari). Making Buhari's position even
bleaker, the ANPP would be unable to meet the
constitutional requirement for a presidential victor to win
25 percent of the vote in two-thirds (25) of the 37 state
jurisdictions (36 states plus the Federal Capital
Territory). Thus far, the ANPP is polling less than 25
percent in 18 states.


CRITICISM MOUNTS
--------------



5. (C) For many races, INEC's returns diverge from the
expectations of many observers and activists in all the
parties. The magnitude of the PDP "landslide" has
surprised security elements of the government, as well. A
senior State Security Service official told POLOFF that his
organization was "studying the results," with concern
mounting for maintaining public order.



6. (U) General Muhammadu Buhari, the ANPP Presidential
candidate, denounced the election results, calling them a
"coup against democracy." Castigating the results as
"spurious," Buhari said "the rigging and fraud that
attended the collation of the results of the just concluded
election is so blatant that 1983 now looks like some child's
play." (NOTE: Buhari knows about coups against a troubled
democracy. He took power in a late-1983 coup that ousted an
unpopular civilian regime widely viewed as corrupt and
ineffective after it manipulated a "landslide" victory in
elections earlier that year. Buhari's allusion to 1983 is
viewed as ominous by some and by others as ironic. END
NOTE.) Another Presidential candidate, Gani Fawehinmi,
described the parliamentary election as a "rigging spree."
Making the same allusion as Buhari, he said, "the same
scenario as in 1983 is playing out." ANPP Chairman Don
Etiebet issued a statement on behalf of 12 of the 14
political parties participating in these elections (all
except NCP and PDP) on April 15 rejecting the results.
While the parties identified many alleged irregularities,
Etiebet stressed that the parties would not boycott the
Presidential and gubernatorial elections. Buhari echoed
this in a broadcast on BBC Hausa service. He reiterated his
warning to be vigilant for fraud, pointing out that he had
issued the same advice at almost every campaign stop in the
past few months.


FUNNY BUSINESS (POLITICAL STYLE)
--------------



7. (C) The INEC results surprised many people and, in
many instances, are seen to diverge with preliminary
indications based on field observations of party agents,
domestic and international monitors and Mission officers.
Internal discrepancies are found throughout the results
announced thus far by INEC. Perhaps the most stunning
development is the overwhelming PDP victory in the
Southwest region. The PDP basically dominated the results
in a region up to then in the firm grasp of the AD. While
the PDP was expected to make some inroads, according to
both AD and PDP partisans, the margin of PDP victory was
vast. One PDP campaigner told POLOFF that his expectation,
based on consultation with his AD counterparts immediately
after the close of the polls, was that the PDP would pick
up about six Senate seats and between 8 and 12 House seats.
"When I woke on Sunday, I was embarrassed and unable to
explain the turnaround," he said. A similar assessment was
provided by an AD campaigner, who thought the PDP would
gain six Senate and between 6 and ten House seats in the
Southwest.



8. (C) The reported 90 percent voters turnout in Rivers
State (South-South) is also being heavily questioned.
MissionOffs reported a light turnout in Rivers, ranging
from 15 to 30 percent of the registered voters.
MissionOffs also encountered strong support for the ANPP in
many areas. However, INEC results show that the PDP won
roughly 90 percent of this very high turn-out, making for
an embarrassing rout of the ANPP. Reported turnout or
results in Edo State (South-South) and Katsina State
(Northwest) are also at odds with Emboffs firsthand, albeit
incomplete, observations. Agents from both PDP and
opposition parties highlight results from many other
locations, including Adamawa, Bauchi and Kaduna States in
the North and Imo, Enugu and Anambra States in the
Southeast that did not jibe with their unofficial tallies.
Other critics comment that awarding some races to one party
on Sunday and reversing the decision on Monday raises
questions of the accuracy and efficiency of INEC's
collation efforts.



9. (C) COMMENT: The April 12 results thus far show the
PDP to be the big and only real winner. The ANPP did well
only in the North and did not gain the ground in the South-
South and Southeast that they had expected. The AD was
rousted from its own house and may have been dealt a mortal
blow. The other opposition parties' vote totals were
little more than crumbs. In effect, the National Assembly
vote, if repeated on April 19, would make the PDP the only
national party, rendering the ANPP a northern party,
wrecking the AD and marking the other parties as entirely
inconsequential. Thus, the cries of foul and cheating must
be seen from this perspective; the opposition parties are
fighting for sheer survival. However, more is at play.
The allegations of fraud and tampering are multiplying and
many cannot be dismissed. Many of these allegations are
credible and jibe with our own observations. While our
observations were more spot-checking than rigorous
monitoring, it would defy statistical probability to
suggest that the voting and tabulation trends we observed
in our sampling in, for example, Rivers and Katsina had
virtually no external validity. The opposition parties
have grounds to be upset and their "rejection" of the
results was a predictable reaction. However, they have
decided not to boycott but to work together to observe more
stringently the vote tabulation process. Thus, the April
19 election will be conducted in an atmosphere of palpable
suspicion and distrust. It will make for an uneasy
Saturday and a tension-filled Easter. INEC faces its
biggest trial yet.
JETER