NIGERIA: A SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000660

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: A SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) Poloff completed a pre-election trip toigeria's
northeast region, the home of incumbent Vice President
Atiku Abubakar and a key to President Obasanjo's re-
election bidPoloff found crumbling infrastructure,
pessimism about the elections and worried Obasanjo-Atiku
campaign officials. Political violence has occurred in the
area, with the worst conflicts in Adamawa. INEC's pre-
election groundwork was minimal; the sense was that the
elections would produce an Obasanjo victory, whether he
actually won or not.


ADAMAWA
--------------



2. (C) Adamawa State, the home of Vice-President Atiku
Abubakar, is an important electoral battleground. The
incumbent governor, Boni Haruna, facing his first ever
election, might lose. (NOTE: Haruna assumed the
governor's office when Atiku vacated it after being
selected as Obasanjo's running mate. END NOTE.) Most
local observers rank Atiku's election in 1999 as suspect,
with his victory the result of manipulating the vote count.
The man he beat, Bala Takaya, is the AD candidate this
time. The ANPP candidate is an established, somewhat
popular politician, Adamu Mu'azu Modibbo. Adding to Boni's
difficulties, Bala hails from the same hometown. But
Boni's heaviest baggage has been his non-performance.
Roads are decaying, electrical and water supplies are
sporadic; the state government has been remiss in paying
salaries on time. The state paid two months of arrears to
pensioners and bureaucrats last week, leaving them only six
months behind. The roads are so bad, according to one PDP
member, that Haruna and the Vice President took a
helicopter to a town about 150 km. away from the capital
last week to "avoid pieces of the road being tossed at
them" by residents along the route.


BAUCHI
--------------



3. (C) ANPP presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari and
current Vice-President Atiku held campaign rallies in
Bauchi in the past week. Buhari attracted thousands of
supporters on arrival at the local airport. According to
one man who attended the rally, Buhari was late due to the
throng blocking the route from the airport to the stadium,
a scene allegedly repeated at most Buhari campaign
whistlestops throughout the north and northern middlebelt.
In contrast, members of Atiku's campaign entourage
complained to Poloff that the Obasanjo-Atiku ticket was a
hard sell. "We have to pay local government chairmen to
hire busloads of people to attend rallies," one lamented.
Further, Bauchi's traditional rulers refused to attend the
Atiku rally, declining due to "illness." The PDP governor
of Bauchi Mu'azu faces serious opposition from an ANPP
candidate backed by the traditional rulers and the
conservative elements of the Bauchi communities. His
detractors claim that he is an unpopular candidate who
"stole" the 1999 elections. His supporters say he is
popular on the ground, and that the assets of incumbency
combined with a solid track record of community
achievements will allow him to prevail.


BORNO
--------------



4. (C) Buhari's rally in Maiduguri, capital of Borno
state, was one of the few Buhari events which gained some
media attention. According to a PDP activist in Borno, the
stadium was overflowing and en route to the city, Buhari
was stopped by cheering reporters. Incumbent Governor Mala
Kachalla, who jumped to the AD after losing the ANPP
nomination, faces a serious challenge by both the PDP and
ANPP candidates. In spite of lapses in paying salaries and
neglect of the development of vast areas of the state,
traditional and conservative elements in Borno support him,
but that may not be enough to carry the day.


GOMBE
--------------



5. (C) When Obasanjo arrived in Gombe for a campaign
appearance, he found a party in disarray. According to a
PDP senator, virtually the entire PDP membership has moved
to the ANPP. Both Buhari and Atiku appeared there, with
tales similar to those from Bauchi being repeated. While
the state has a larger Christian population than some of
its neighbors, Buhari seems to transcend the religious
divide.


YOBE AND TARABA
--------------



6. (C) Yobe and Taraba states comprise the northern and
southern extremes of the Northeast. In Yobe, the ANPP
holds the cards, with an incumbent governor and a
conservative populace. PDP candidates complained of
harassment and attacks, but compared to other areas, these
are of minor scale. In Taraba, where the religious divide
is most evident, Buhari received an outpouring of support
on his visits to the state. The incumbent PDP governor is
increasingly isolated from the national party and is
vulnerable; however, opposition candidates are not very
attractive.


COMMON THEMES
--------------



7. (C) Violence is present throughout the area, with the
worst conflicts occurring in Adamawa. Most common are
localized clashes between PDP and ANPP supporters and
attacks on motorcades. In Adamawa, the grandson of the
Vice-President's father-in-law was arrested on the orders
of the incumbent governor for alleged "anti-government
activities;" he was caught distributing ANPP posters in the
capital of Yola. Throughout the region, INEC has yet to
complete preparations for displaying a voters list or a
candidates list. While everyone assumes that the polling
places will be the same as the September registration
sites, much concern remains about last minute
substitutions.



8. (C) COMMENT: Regardless of party, there is widespread
disenchantment with incumbent office holders at all levels.
However, most people believe election rigging is inherent
in the political culture and note manipulation will keep
far more incumbents in office than actually deserve to
return. On the presidential election, Obasanjo and Atiku
might not attract the crowds that Buhari has, but they have
the assets of incumbency and some real support as well.
However, it appears that Buhari has captured the momentum
in this region and will carry it into election day. This
represents a reversal of fortune from several months ago.
Immediately after the PDP and ANPP party conventions in
January, Obasanjo would likely have carried the region.
Now, a growing number of northeasterners believe that the
only way Obasanjo can take the region is by tampering with
the vote count.


JETER