NIGERIA: BUHARI SAYS NIGERIA NEEDS DISCIPLINE, WANTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000419

SIPDIS


NSC FOR FRAZER
CAIRO POL FOR MAXSTADT
LONDON FOR GURNEY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS EFIN KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BUHARI SAYS NIGERIA NEEDS DISCIPLINE, WANTS
TO VISIT U.S. BEFORE ELECTIONS


Ref: ABUJA 418


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND
(D).



1. (U) This message contains a recommendation. See para 5.


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INTRODUCTION
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2. (U) DCM January 31 met with ANPP Presidential candidate
Mohammadu Buhari and two associates (Bello Abubakar, an aide
when Buhari was Head of State previously) and Mouftah Baba-
Ahmed (a businessman and brother to both Nafiu Baba-Ahmed
(Secretary-General of the Supreme Council for Sharia in
Nigeria) and Hakeem Baba-Ahmed (Secretary of the Independent
National Electoral Commission-INEC)). DCM February 2 met
separately with Buhari campaign coordinator Sule Hamma.
Buhari expressed interest in visiting the U.S., while Hamma
described how Buhari planned to win.


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OBASANJO LACKS CREDIBILITY, HAS BETRAYED HIS 1999 SUPPORTERS
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3. (C) Buhari, Baba-Ahmed and Abubakar argued Obasanjo had
betrayed an electorate that had trusted him to combat
corruption and instill discipline. The key to economic
efficiency and prosperity was to be found in disciplined
leadership by example (from the top),not in expanded
privatization. Nigeria's "privatization" program had thus far
succeeded merely in handing state-owned enterprises over to
Obasanjo's political allies, they said. A Buhari government
would focus on rebuilding Nigeria's social and physical
infrastructure, they added. Asked whether he would support
the bodies charged with combating corruption, such as the
Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) and the Code
of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal, Buhari hedged. He would
support all bodies that were "constitutional" but felt that
Nigeria had plenty of laws on the books to fight corruption;
again, the problem was lack of disciplined leadership at the
top and impartial enforcement of existing laws. COMMENT: The
constitutionality of the ICPC has survived all challenges to
date, but at least one case is still pending. END COMMENT.



4. (C) Buhari said he was interested in visiting the U.S. and
key European countries during a to-be-determined 10-day period
before the elections. DCM repeated the message he had given
to Baba-Ahmed earlier; a visit would be welcome but reception
at the highest levels was not possible. Buhari understood and
said it was essential for Nigeria's most important partners to
get to know and "understand" him. DCM concurred, noting that
Buhari had a "formidable" reputation from his earlier stint as
Head of State. "Yes, but you know me very well," Buhari
replied, alluding to an association dating back to 1994.


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RECOMMENDATION
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5. (C) Recommendation: That Buhari be received by A/S
Kansteiner should the proposed trip take place. While other
candidates may have been received at the DAS level, Buhari is
a former Head of State and Obasanjo's only real opposition.


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THE GAME PLAN
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6. (C) Sule Yahaya Hamma was once Sani Abacha's political
counselor. Now, he is the coordinator of the Buhari campaign
organization. The campaign itself is yet to take off. Its
principal had gone on the Hajj and just returned to Nigeria
with a cold and without a voice. Notwithstanding this lack of
domestic campaign activity by the candidate, Hamma professes
to believe that Buhari will win.



7. (C) According to Hamma, Buhari will win by large margins
all 19 Northern states except Adamawa (VP Atiku Abubakar's
turf) and will get at least 25% of the vote in Adamawa, Ekiti,
Ondo, Lagos, Anamabra (VP candidate Chuba Okadigbo's home),
one other Southeast state, and four of the six South-South
states. Hamma counts on a heavy Northern voter turnout to
produce the overall margin for victory. Hamma does not
perceive a divide between Northern Muslims and Northern
Christians, arguing that adherents of both religions have
suffered at the hands of the Obasanjo Administration for their
regional identities. He claimed that neither Obasanjo nor
Atiku understood the depth of antipathy toward the incumbent
government. Hamma expressed concern, however, that opening
ballot boxes and tallying votes in "counting and collation
centers" would give the ruling PDP the means to rig (by
switching ballot boxes).


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COMMENT
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7. (C) We have not been able to confirm Hamma's allegation
that INEC plans to establish "counting and collation centers"
but would agree that offsite tallying increases the risk of
fraud. Nonetheless, it is an axiom of Nigerian politics that
"you only rig where you are strong." Practically, this means
that one can inflate vote totals to enhance the margin of the
candidate favored in a particular area. One risks unrest,
however, by announcing a candidate as the winner of an area
whose voters know they overwhelmingly voted for the other
contestant. Rigging to strength can have a net percentage
effect of near zero nationally if practiced by all. This
phenomenon explains why most international observers felt the
1999 presidential election, though marred by fraud on both
sides, broadly reflected the will of the Nigerian electorate.



8. (C) Although we cannot rule out a Buhari presidency, it
does not seem highly likely. Incumbents have certain inherent
advantages that challengers need energy and determination to
overcome. In Nigeria, they also need a lot of money. Thus
far, Buhari has manifested determination but relatively little
energy, and the funds available to him are unknown but judged
by most observers as significantly less than the resources
Obasanjo and Atiku can marshal. Of course, if Buhari used the
margins of the Hajj to raise money, his position might now be
somewhat improved, but Obasanjo and Atiku almost certainly can
outspend him regardless. Meanwhile, his campaign remains in
the starting blocks fully two weeks after the February 13
Obasanjo/Atiku launch.



9. (C) The rationale for a Washington meeting for Buhari has
more to do with engaging his support base than with engaging
him. Many Buhari supporters are deeply suspicious of the USG.
Buhari has been a Mission contact for many years. It is in
our interest now to engage with him at a senior Washington
level, and to be seen by his supporters as in dialogue with
him. History and the nature of Buhari's base suggest that a
Buhari presidency probably would not be as favorably inclined
toward us as the Obasanjo Administration has been (or would
be),but Buhari himself could exercise a moderating influence
on his supporters. Even if he loses, his influence will
remain substantial. Finally, scheduling conflicts prevented
Buhari from meeting Andrew Natsios in Nigeria and hearing the
USAID Administrator's message on the importance of non-violent
elections. However, the points on the imperative of avoiding
violence in the upcoming elections were made by the Ambassador
during a separate meeting with Buhari (Septel).
JETER