NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 10

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000291

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: POLITICAL ROUNDUP FEBRUARY 10


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter: Reason: 1.5(b) and
(d)



1. (U) This periodic joint political report from Abuja and
Lagos includes:
--Second Round of Voter Registration
--New PDP Gubernatorial Caucuses
--Potential Party Coalition vs. Obasanjo
--Will AD Support Obasanjo?
--Counterfeit Voter Cards in Lagos
--Igbo Group Chooses Presidential Candidate
--Atiku Gets a New Title


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SECOND ROUND OF VOTER REGISTRATION
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2. (U) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
has completed its second round of voter registration for the
upcoming presidential elections. While INEC has not
published the number of voters registered in this round, our
observations and discussions with numerous politicians
indicate the turnout was low. Prior to this second round,
INEC reportedly gave the police the names of over two million
people who allegedly registered more than once during the
initial registration last September.



3. (C) Perhaps further delaying finalization of the voters
list, press reports indicated the names of over one million
registrants in Kano state, the North,s most populous state,
might have been erased from INEC,s database due to computer
error. INEC confirmed that it had experienced computer
errors, but declared the number of lost names to be
significantly less. COMMENT: A Northern figure close to ANPP
candidate Muhammadu Buhari alleged that all Northerners in
INEC's computer department had been reassigned to other
duties and suggested that these moves were part of an effort
to manipulate upcoming polls. Whether either part of this
allegation is true or not, many Northerners will decide to
believe it as it conforms to their fears. END COMMENT.


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NEW PDP GUBERNATORIAL CAUCUSES
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4. (U) After protests two weeks ago at PDP Headquarters in
Abuja, the People,s Democratic Party leadership ordered new
gubernatorial caucuses in Kwara, Anambra, Osun and Borno.
The protests alleged material irregularities in the previous
caucuses in these states. The date has not been set yet for
Anambra and Osun. The new primaries in Kwara and Borno took
place February 1 with results the same as the first caucuses.
No violence was reported. No decision has been made
concerning protests of the Enugu caucus. The party formally
approved the results of the Plateau caucus.


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POTENTIAL PARTY COALITION VS. OBASANJO
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5. (SBU) Representatives from the majority of the new
political parties met in Abuja January 29 to discuss a
possible coalition. The ostensible rationale for the
coalition was to oppose the two major parties and their
flagbearers, President Obasanjo and his fellow former
military Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari. Several parties
had already convened presidential primaries and chosen their
candidates (UNPP, JP, NDP, and APGA). As of right now, no
party has publicly committed itself to the idea, with its
suggestion of a joint opposition candidate. Most of them
planned to "study" the concept further.


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WILL AD SUPPORT OBASANJO?
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6. (C) Riven by internal conflict, the already factionalized
AD may split again. Much of the friction revolves around the
question of whether the party will support Obasanjo or field
its own candidate. Apparently, most AD governors and the
faction loyal to National Chairman Abdulkadir support
Obasanjo. However, two other factions opposed to Obasanjo
have issued public statements purporting that Abdulkadir has
been removed from office. The Abdulkadir group is probably
larger than the other two factions combined. Meanwhile, the
Yoruba leaders group, Afenifere, has been at loggerheads with
the AD governors for control of the party. Partly because of
this competition and some longstanding antipathies between
Afenifere leaders and the President, Afenifere has delayed
enunciating its position on whether the AD should back
Obasanjo. (COMMENT: While the anti-Obasanjo factions in the
party do not seem to represent the majority, their activities
have made an untidy spectacle of the AD. These factions may
be receiving support from Obasanjo opponents outside the
party. In the end, the AD will likely support Obasanjo.
Although AD factionalism will diminish that endorsement's
value somewhat, it still will be seen by many as an
expression that Obasanjo is secure in the Southwest. END
COMMENT.)


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COUNTERFEIT VOTER CARDS IN LAGOS
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7. (C) Newspapers reported the alleged confiscation of
two-five million fake voter registration cards last week.
Our contacts confirm that the actual event was the arrest of
a clerk who had been bribed to make five cards, with possibly
more on the way. The clerk is still in detention, and no
other arrests have been made. (COMMENT: Once again the
sensationalist press got it wrong. However, the publication
of such stories demonstrates how ready people are to believe
that electoral fraud will be on a massive scale and INEC is
either powerless to stop these designs or is complicit in
them. END COMMENT)


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IGBO GROUP FAILS TO CHOSE CONSENSUS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
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8. (C) Ohaneze Ndigbo, the most influential Igbo leadership
group, has been unable to select a consensus candidate from
among the six Igbo candidates chosen by different parties.
The January 31 meeting Ohaneze held with the Igbo candidates
ended in stalemate. APGA, the only predominately Igbo party,
argued that Ohaneze should first direct Igbos to the party
where their influence is the strongest, i.e. APGA. If
APGA,s petition had been accepted, selection of its
candidate, controversial former Biafran leader Emeka Ojukwu,
would have been a foregone conclusion. The other Igbo
candidates contended that Ohaneze should concentrate on
identifying the candidate most likely to win (clearly not
Ojukwu) and not on the parties. (COMMENT: The fractious
nature of Igbo politics makes reaching a consensus very
difficult. Ohaneze and the candidates will meet again in
Abuja the week of February 10-14 to continue discussions.
END COMMENT.)


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ATIKU GETS A NEW TITLE
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9. (C) The Ooni of Ife, the preeminent Yoruba traditional
leader, conferred the Yoruba chieftancy title of &Aare
Adimula8 on Vice President Abubakar Atiku February 1 in an
apparent acceptance of the VP by the Yoruba leadership. The
conferment was the Ooni,s way of repaying Atiku for standing
by Obasanjo during the PDP convention last month. During the
ceremony, the Ooni stated that Atiku could be assured of
Yoruba support for &any future political activities,8 a not
too oblique reference to the 2007 presidential contest.
(COMMENT: Atiku February 7 told DCM he was very pleased with
the title and the implication of future support it conferred.
END COMMENT).
JETER
JETER