NIGERIA: FRIENDS OF NIGERIA MEETING ON ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000276 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FRIENDS OF NIGERIA MEETING ON ELECTION PREPARATIONS REF: A. A) ABUJA 49 ¶B. B) ABUJA 48 ¶C. C) ABUJA 16 ¶D. D) ABUJA 15 Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter: Reason: 1.5(b) and (d) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The Ambassador convened a meeting of the Friends of Nigeria January 14. The British High Commissioner, Canadian High Commissioner and German Ambassador attended. The discussion focused on the presidential conventions of the major political parties, the second round of voter registration, and international observers for the general elections. END SUMMARY -------------- CONVENTION READ-OUT -------------- ¶2. (C) The Chiefs of Mission provided their observations of the PDP and ANPP conventions held in early January. Reftels cover these details at length. Conclusions regarding the PDP convention were that President Obasanjo encountered a stiff challenge from former Vice President Ekweume and that the political stock of Vice President Atiku and the State Governors rose as a result of the convention but that President Obasanjo may likely backtrack from many of the promises made to Atiku and the Governors in the heat of the moment. (It is believed that Obasanjo promised to turn over control of most, if not the entire domestic agenda to Atiku). A major issue regarding how the important South-South region will vote is whether Obasanjo will honor his vow to sign the oil dichotomy bill (ref B). On the ANPP side, all agreed that former Head of State Mohammedu Buhari will have a difficult time beating Obasanjo due to Buhari's lack of support in the South. With the ascendance of Buhari, the ANPP will be viewed as a northern party. Also discussants expressed concern that religion may play a divisive role in the election. -------------- VOTER REGISTRATION -------------- ¶3. (C) The general belief was that the January 21-24 second round of registration indicated a show of good faith by INEC to respond to the public criticism of the initial round of registration. Nevertheless, the second round will be little more than an event to boost public confidence and will not register many new voters. (Comment: This prediction of a low turn-out proved to be correct. End Comment.) -------------- OBSERVERS -------------- ¶4. (C) Participants discussed the GON Diplomatic Note outlining the accreditation process for international election observers. Prospective monitors must submit biographic information; depending on the detail required by the GON, this requirement could be onerous. Discussion also focused on the need to develop a deployment plan for the observers to maximize geographic coverage and to prevent too many observers from converging in too few areas of the country. It was agreed to hold another meeting to begin developing the deployment plan. ¶5. (U) Note: In view of the GON requirement that prospective international monitors submit CV,s, we urge those U.S. organizations planning to send election observers to submit the names and CV,s of the observers with utmost dispatch. JETER JETER