NIGERIA: UWECHUE SEES SMOOTH SAILING AHEAD FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000256 SIPDIS CAIRO POL FOR MAXSTADT LONDON FOR GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: UWECHUE SEES SMOOTH SAILING AHEAD FOR OBASANJO CAMPAIGN CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). (C) During a January 9 meeting with Ambassador Jeter, Nigerian Special Presidential Envoy on Conflict Resolution Ambassador Raph Uwechue shared his thoughts on President Obasanjo's prospects for reelection. Uwechue said that All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) nominee Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Mohammedu Buhari is well liked and respected among Northern Muslims. However, Buhari is singularly unpopular with Christians and Southerners, making it unlikely that he could win the election. Uwechue did not believe Buhari's partner on the ticket, former Senate President Chuba Okadigbo, and Igbo, would rally many Southerners to the ANPP flag. In the absence of other credible opposition, Uwechue thought President Obasanjo would easily win a second term. JETER JETER