BUHARI TRIAL ADJOURNED UNTIL JANUARY 19

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002132 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2013 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI SUBJECT: BUHARI TRIAL ADJOURNED UNTIL JANUARY 19 REF: A. ABUJA 2029 ¶B. ABUJA 1872 AND PREVIOUS CLASSIFIED BY COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASON 1.5 D. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) : The ANPP/Buhari suit continues at its slow pace. The complainant ANPP continues to score points with its evidence, and the defense (Obasanjo) attempts to delay the process through objections to virtually every witness and document. The "Independent" National Electoral Commission (INEC) attorney has resumed following the lead of PDP President Obasanjo,s defense attorney, Afe Babalola. Testimony continued on the election in Imo and Kaduna states, and the complainant also told the judges that the State Security Service (SSS) and police are harassing its witnesses after they testify. ¶2. (SBU) With the justices attending the annual Nigerian judiciary conference, the case has been adjourned until January 19, 2004. Buhari and ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet still plan to visit the U.S. to highlight the continuing instability and insecurity in Nigeria. The two remain concerned about the effect that perceived "USG backing of rigged elections" might have on future U.S.-Nigeria relations and on Nigerian public opinion. They plan to visit Washington after the Christmas holidays, when the U.S. Congress is back in session. END SUMMARY. -------------- EVIDENCE OF ELECTION TAMPERING -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The ANPP/Buhari suit continues slowly at the Court of Appeals, with the prosecution methodically presenting evidence of INEC,s failures and the complicity of Obasanjo/PDP and the security services in controlling the outcome of the 2003 elections. Witnesses presented new evidence about hijacked ballot boxes in many areas of Kaduna state, and claimed that known PDP supporters then conspired with police to change the results. Two more victims of police shootings on elections day also testified. ¶4. (SBU) A copy of a letter from Imo State Regional Elections Commissioner Alhaji Garba Bawa, presented to the court by ANPP Imo State Chairman Dr. Edmond Onyewuchi, seemed to confirm that massive irregularities took place in Imo. The letter corroborated Bawa,s April 28 comments at a press conference that "INEC ad hoc staff compromised the election." Obasanjo defense lawyer Babalola objected to the use of a copy as evidence. After recessing, the justices allowed the copy to be admitted, on the principle that a party to the suit (defendant INEC) might not produce the original in its possession, even when subpoenaed. (NOTE: INEC so far has not produced in court various other subpoenaed documents, including the National Voters Register that was required by law before a legal election could take place. End Note.) Witnesses from both Imo and Kaduna states added further testimony that INEC did not allow ANPP party agents to inspect and certify election materials before distribution to polling sites, as required by INEC,s own electoral guidelines. -------------- HARASSMENT OF WITNESSES -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Many witnesses for the complainant have been questioned by police and SSS following their testimony. ANPP Adamawa State Gubernatorial candidate Alhaji Mu,azu Modibbo was detained for several days in October and has been subjected to surveillance since. ANPP Imo State Chairman Onyewuchi was also detained on his return to Owerri from the court in Abuja, and interrogated by SSS. Many others have reported being followed or otherwise harassed in Ogun, Adamawa, Kaduna and Imo states, the four states presented thus far in the proceedings. The witnesses detained were later released without charges after spending varying amounts of time in custody. ¶6. (SBU) Buhari's lawyer complained to the judges about the harassment by the security services. Obasanjo attorney Babalola denied any presidential knowledge of the harassment, and urged the judges not to permit the issue to become part of the election suit proceedings. Head Justice Umaru Abdullahi told Buhari's lawyers that they were responsibility for protecting their witnesses. The press weighed in on the issue, pointing out that it was more logical for the government to control its overzealous security services than to ask opposition parties to take that task. -------------- BUHARI/ETIEBET TRIP TO THE U.S. -------------- ¶7. (C) With the justices attending Nigeria's annual judiciary conference, the case has been adjourned until January 19, ¶2004. ANPP candidate Buhari and ANPP Chairman Don Etiebet plan to visit the U.S. (Ref A) to present their case against the election results and highlight the continuing instability and insecurity in Nigeria. While they are not happy about missing resumption of the trial, they say they are more concerned at what they see as "the USG,s apparent backing of the rigged elections," and the effect such perceived backing might have on future U.S.-Nigeria relations. Their current plan is to try to visit the U.S. after the Christmas holidays, when Congress is back in session. While Buhari's presence in the courtroom is useful for public relations, they think it should not supersede other, more important activities that Buhari might undertake. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: As long as Buhari sticks to the judicial process, the likelihood of public disturbances in the north against Obasanjo is diminished, although not eliminated. Without a spark from another region, mass action is unlikely to commence until after all legal means have been exhausted. On the other hand, the longer Obasanjo keeps the process going, the more potent his lawyer's argument becomes that it is too late for the court to annul the April 2003 election (Ref B). While other factors -- such as the internal strife in the PDP and the continued anger among Nigerians on many issues -- could trigger nationwide demonstrations or even an in-house coup attempt by elements of the current ruling party, any such event also remains unlikely before the Appeals Court (and if it goes that far, the Supreme Court) announces its decision. MEECE