MFA DOUBTFUL OF MUGABE INVITE TO CHOGM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001995 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2013 TAGS: PREL ZI NI SUBJECT: MFA DOUBTFUL OF MUGABE INVITE TO CHOGM REF: HARARE 2256 Classified by CDA Roger Meece. Reason 1.5 (b/d) ¶1. (C) During a November 20 meeting with MFA Permanent Secretary Amb. Daniel Hart, CDA asked about any new SIPDIS developments related to the upcoming Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) arising out of President Obasanjo's recent visit to Zimbabwe. Hart professed not to know the details of Obasanjo's discussions in Harare, but expressed doubt that any significant changes will be made to summit arrangements. Pressed a bit further, Hart said that he thinks it "too late" for a summit invitation to be issued to Zimbabwe President Mugabe. Hart characterized Obasanjo's Harare trip as "taking the pulse" so that he would be able to discuss the Zimbabwe issue fully with Commonwealth counterparts. In this regard, he observed that it is unlikely that current Chair Australia would be making a high-level visit to Zimbabwe soon. Hart said that he was well aware of Mugabe's public statements that he is looking forward to participating in the CHOGM summit, but dismissed these as being entirely for Zimbabwe domestic consumption. ¶2. (C) Hart emphasized that the Nigerians are very aware of the potential for the issue of Zimbabwe to dominate if not disrupt the summit. The GON wants to ensure that this does not happen. Hart said that while the issue is important and will certainly be an important topic, there are many other issues that the Commonwealth leaders need to discuss as well. ¶3. (C) Comment: Hart's views are not definitive; Obasanjo is capable of surprising his own officials by independent action. It is conceivable that Obasanjo could be personally swayed by sufficient concerted pressure by fellow African leaders to do something for Mugabe. Hart's thinking does reflect, however, prevailing sentiment in MFA and much of the GON. As well, Obasanjo certainly does not want the Abuja summit to break up in disarray over controversy centered on Mugabe's presence, and he is well aware of that possibility. We therefore think it likely that Hart has this basically right - Obasanjo felt the need for a personal visit to demonstrate his conscientious discharge of responsibility, but without intent of trying to deliver a personal CHOGM invitation to Mugabe. End comment. MEECE