NIGERIA SUFFERING CONTINUED BUDGET SHORTFALLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001529

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2013
TAGS: EFIN PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA SUFFERING CONTINUED BUDGET SHORTFALLS


CLASSIFIED BY DCM RICK ROBERTS FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) AND (d).



1. (U) Nigeria continues to suffer from budgetary
shortfalls to fund current expenditures, severely limiting
government operations. According to the Minister of State
for Finance, Nenadi Usman, the GON had only Naira 145.9
billion available for its August obligations totaling Naira
183.1 billion. MinState Usman said that the GON again tapped
into the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) crude oil reserve
account to make up the Naira 37.246 billion shortfall.



2. (C) According to a source at the CBN, the central bank
was "out of funds." Source told Poloff that the GON was
shopping a Naira 150 billion bond offering to cover current
expenditures and expected future shortfalls. (Note: This is
the first time in 16 years that the GON has issued long-term
bonds to service domestic debt. End Note.) The CBN official
claimed that the CBN was under strict orders to limit
disbursements, and would only fund the following in priority
order based on the availability of funds:


a. the Presidency,
b. the All-Africa Games (COJA),
c. the Commonwealth Head of Government Meeting (CHOGM),
d. "selected" contractors, and
e. salaries and operating expenses.



3. (C) A source in the Vice President's office confirmed
these priorities to Poloff in a separate meeting. He stated
that, inside the Presidential Villa, the only two things
currently funded were COJA and CHOGM. "There is nothing more
important for Nigeria that a successful COJA," he said.
According to this source, funding for COJA was a major
deciding factor in the GON's attempt to raise the price for
gasoline to Naira 40 per liter in June. The agreement to
limit the price hike to Naira 36 per liter, after the strike,
has created serious cash flow problems for the GON even while
it attempts to support COJA and CHOGM in the same year it has
already held presidential, legislative, and gubernatorial
elections, a summit, and a deployment to Liberia.



4. (C) COMMENT: We know that the GON is devoting itself to
putting on COJA and CHOGM, two high-visibility events that
will be attended by heads of state. Businessmen and
politicians have been complaining about the continued lack of
GON resources for normal government operations since the
election campaign season began in October, 2002. There are
also various "promises" made in the campaign and in labor
negotiations -- most notably the 12.5 percent pay increase
for civil servants -- that have yet to be fulfilled. With
the overwhelming majority of the budget devoted to paying for
the GON's day-to-day operations, continuing revenue
shortfalls will hamper any efforts by the GON to overcome
Nigerian criticisms of non-performance and insensitivity.
The long-term bonds will help, as well as deepen the capital
market, and are less likely to provoke inflation than the
alternative of CBN sterilizing more of Nigeria's forex
inflows.
MEECE