RENEWED WARRI VIOLENCE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN

UNCLAS ABUJA 001328 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EPET PINS ASEC PREL PGOV NI SUBJECT: RENEWED WARRI VIOLENCE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN REF: REUTERS REPORT-03AUG03 1904GMT 1.(SBU) SUMMARY: Inter-ethnic violence has erupted again in the Warri region, this round initiated by the Itsekiris. There have been indications that the military heretofore passively deployed to the area are preparing to be more assertive. This latest spasm might make the prospects for military intervention to stop the inter-ethnic fight and to secure oil production more likely. END SUMMARY 2.(SBU) Embassy Corporate Responsibility Officer (CRO) was contacted early August 3 by the security manager for Shell's Western Operating Region, which encompasses Warri. The manager reported violence in the Warri creeks caused by Itsekiri militants. According to Shell and, later, a Lagos-based Reuters report (ref),Itsekiri militants attacked three villages in the Warri area late August 2. Local sources claimed 10-25 deaths but the total is unconfirmed. 3.(SBU) CRO on August 3 contacted Daniel Ekpedibe, a leader of the Ijaw militant's Federated Niger Delta Ijaw Communities (FNDIC),who claimed three Ijaw villages near Koko in Warri North local government area (LGA) and one village across from the Warri refinery in Warri Southwest LGA were attacked and destroyed by armed Itsekiri youth. According to Ekpedibe, 15 were killed in the Warri North attacks and 10 in the attack near the refinery. (Note: This latter attack took place within site of Warri town. End Note) While angered by the attacks, the militant leader asserted FNDIC would not retaliate, but would be compelled to action should the Itsekiri seek further damage. Ekpedibe's account of the attacks were later corroborated by Joel Bisina (ethnic Ijaw), head of Warri-based NGO "Niger Delta Professionals for Development." The War is Back -------------- 4.(SBU) Bisina disclosed that he had attended an emergency meeting held by Ijaw militants in Warri August 3 and was convinced that reprisals were imminent. Throughout the day, police and military forces in Warri Town reportedly fired shots in the air in a show of force to dissuade any attacks within the oil city. According to Bisina, many Ijaw believe Sapele, about 50 kilometers from Warri, is the staging area for Itsekiri militants and may likely be a target for future Ijaw actions. Bisina has also heard unverified reports that the army was planning to mobilize in an operation against Okerenkoko and Egbema, two villages in the Warri swamp considered the bases of the militant members of the Gbaramatu and Egbema clans, respectively. 5.(SBU) Comment: The Warri conflict has taken a sharp turn for the worse, which will make thus far unsuccessful attempts at a political settlement even more difficult. If the fighting continues, at the rate of loss of life and property damage, the military will be hard pressed not to intervene. Yet any such intervention will raise the possibility of heavy-handedness by the military. The Ijaw militants, not known for self-restraint, will likely strike back soon, notwithstanding Ekpedibe's disavowals. While Sapele may be viewed as the base for Itsekiri militants, the Itsekiri villages surrounding the huge Chevron tank farm and terminal in Escravos also present attractive targets for Ijaw reprisal attacks. These villages have been the victims of past Ijaw exertions. Such attacks (as in March 2003) could complicate the operations of this terminal that handles 440,000 barrels of oil production per day. LIBERI