NIGERIA: FUEL STRIKE ENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001195

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2008
TAGS: ELAB EPET ENRG PGOV PHUM ASEC CASC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FUEL STRIKE ENDS

REF: (A) ABUJA 1172 (B) ABUJA 1168 AND PREVIOUS




Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; For Reasons 1.5 (B)
and (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) accepted
the GON's 34 naira (23 cents) fuel price offer early this
morning. With this, Labor's eight-day strike has ended, one
day after the most violent twenty-four hours of the strike.
Five to ten demonstrators were reportedly killed in Lagos
yesterday, with hundreds injured and jailed. The end came
after an all-night session that Labor sources described as
"lengthy debate and arm twisting from the Senate President
and Speaker of the House." Both sides appeared concerned
that a prolonged strike would incite further violence.
However, the NLC vowed it would resume the strike if the GON
refused to pay workers who honored the strike or failed to
investigate strike-related killings. END SUMMARY.



2. (U) Labor's eight-day strike ended at 0600 July 8, when
the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) agreed to the Government's
34 naira/liter (23 cents) offer. Following what has been the
most violent day of the strike, the agreement caught some by
surprise. We expect neither Abuja nor Nigeria as a whole to
rebound immediately. Businesses remained closed today. The
lack of fuel will likely delay Nigeria's return to normalcy
for two or three days as deliveries begin to arrive
throughout the country. Meanwhile, an official at the
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation stated the Petroleum
Products Pricing Regulatory Agency would officially announce
the new price today.



3. (U) The Monday activity which brought the strike to a
close included widespread demonstrations in Lagos, Abeokuta,
Suleja, Lokoja and other locations. NLC leaders claimed that
at least 10 people died in Lagos during the final day of the
strike. Along with the 10 previously reported deaths in
Abuja and three reported deaths in Port Harcourt, the toll
may be at least 23 persons. Hundreds have been injured
(including the victims of the Abuja Wuse Market stampede) and
many labor and student leaders were detained. We have not
heard whether those still under detention have been released.





4. (U) Labor leaders said that the agreement came after a
ten-hour session and "arm-twisting" by government officials,
including Senate President Adolphus Wabara and Speaker of the
House Aminu Masari. One member of the NLC's National
Executive Council told Poloff that the stridency of the
protests had "surprised and worried" labor leaders. However,
the NLC warned that it would resume the strike if workers who
stayed home were not paid and if the police do not
investigate the killings that occurred during the
demonstrations around the country.



5. (C) Comment: The strike has ended with few people
satisfied but with just about everyone feeling a sense of
relief. Right now, it is difficult to gauge winners and
losers. Labor proved its muscle by dragging the strike out
for nine days but still agreed to a 30 percent price
increase. The GON also won an increase in prices, but below
the 35 naira level it argued was the minimum to spur further
fuel imports and thus ease the country's shortage. In the
wake of yesterday's violence, both sides were anxious to end
the strike before more potential violence spread further.
However, this may not be the final chapter. The GON wants
fuel prices to reach 40 naira by year's end. Given the
lesson of the strike, perhaps the Government will do a better
job of consulting with Labor the next time around. End
Comment.
JETER