NIGERIA: GON AND LABOR REMAIN AT LOGGERHEADS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001157 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR STATE PASS AF/W, INR, EB E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2008 TAGS: ELAB EPET ENRG PGOV ASEC CASC NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: GON AND LABOR REMAIN AT LOGGERHEADS AS FUEL STRIKE CONTINUES REF: (A) ABUJA 1147 (B) ABUJA 1135 (C) ABUJA 1107 (D) ABUJA 1091 Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter: Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D). ¶1. (U) Summary: Nigeria has entered the third day of a national strike, with no agreement in sight between the National Labour Congress (NLC) and the Obasanjo Administration over fuel prices. Tensions in Abuja rose today as police clashed with NLC leaders and demonstrators. Street clashes continued in Lagos and other parts of the south and a major demonstration is planned in Kano later today. Crude oil production appears unaffected thus far, but the senior staff union PENGASSAN has now stated it will join the strike if no agreement is reached by midnight Sunday, July 6. Air traffic experienced increased delays and disruptions, as strike supporters found ways to sporadically block operations. End Summary. Obasanjo Intransigent -------------- ¶2. (U) A senior official at the Presidency told Poloff that Obasanjo was, for now, "intransigent" on rolling back the fuel price increase. "These meetings are a waste of time because we have been instructed not to compromise," he claimed. During a speech at the Presidency on Monday, Obasanjo professed that with the fuel subsidy gone, the GON would better fund hospitals, roads and schools; the same justification he used for the last increase. He also said that the price hike was good because it would curb Nigerians' appetite for road travel. Obasanjo's logic was that since fuel was now more expensive, the average Nigerian would travel less, stay at home more, and be more industrious. He also quipped that less travel on Nigerian roads would save the GON millions of naira on road repair bills. NNPC Not Optimistic -------------- ¶3. (U) Austen Oniwon, a senior aide to Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Group Managing Director Gaius-Obaseki, confirmed to Econoff that the GON and NLC remained at loggerheads. Stating that during yesterday's meeting, the NLC indicated willingness to accept a small fuel price increase. The two sides could not agree on the exact amount. Oniwon was not optimistic that the NLC and GON would reach an agreement during meetings scheduled for today. Although the Permanent Secretary and Acting Minister of Labor told the Ambassador this afternoon that progress was being made and he thought a settlement was imminent. ¶4. (U) NLC officials privately indicated to Emboff that they would be willing to accept a 5 to 7 naira increase in fuel prices but maintain their public posture that no increase is acceptable. Press reports on Monday indicated that the GON might consider a reduction. Nonetheless, in public appearances over the last two days, Obasanjo has stubbornly advocated keeping the full price hike in place. (Comment: Obasanjo, by engaging the NLC in marathon meetings, may be stalling for time in hopes that the strike will fizzle. End Comment) NLC Prepared For The Long-Haul? -------------- ¶5. (U) NLC senior official Benson Upah confirmed last night's negotiations made no headway. Upah said he was very pessimistic that an agreement could be reached soon, stating "we are in for the long haul, and we are prepared". All NLC officials were concerned by the GON's continued excessive use of force to quell labor's peaceful demonstrations at Abuja's Federal Secretariat and other locations, he stated. White Collar Oil Union May Join NLC -------------- ¶6. (U) Kenneth Narebor, General Secretary of the white-collar petroleum workers' union PENGASSAN, confirmed that he issued a warning yesterday that PENGASSAN members will join the nation-wide strike next week if no agreement were reached by midnight, July 6. Narebor said a directive will be sent out later today to all PENGASSAN's units instructing them to shut down oil production facilities if ongoing negotiations between the NLC and the federal government remain deadlocked by Saturday, July 5. He also said his union is "dead serious" about this warning, and will ensure that the oil and gas sector is completely shut down by the weekend if a breakthrough were not achieved. He stated he was, however, optimistic that on-going talks between NLC and GON would produce positive results. ¶7. (U) Meanwhile, NUPENG Organizing Secretary Bernard Ugbi reported that his union had not previously considered a shut-down option, but added that it cannot be ruled out in view of PENGASSAN's new statements. Until now, the two unions have agreed to keep oil flowing during the strike so as not to completely undermine Nigeria's economy while NLC pressures the federal government for action on the fuel price issue. On July 2, a Conoco representative echoed earlier reports from Shell and ExxonMobil that while its headquarters are operating with skeleton staff, crude production has not been affected in the first two days of the strike. Police Assaults Journalists, Imprison Labor Leaders -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) Demonstrations continue throughout Abuja on Wednesday. Police reportedly fired shots and used tear gas to disperse demonstrators at the Federal Secretariat, the Federal Capital Development Authority, Ministry of Works and Housing and Abuja's main market. We have no information on possible injuries during these incidents. During a NLC-led demonstration at the Federal Secretariat yesterday, police assaulted four journalists, hospitalizing one, for taking photos. Police incarcerated over twenty labor leaders in Abuja yesterday and reportedly imprisoned scores of NLC local leaders nation-wide. Maj. Gen. G. A. Kpamber was accused of ordering security at the Secretariat to use live ammunition to prevent a speech by NLC President Adams Oshiomhole on Monday. ¶9. (C) Confirming previously reported deaths, a security official told Emboff that the strike is "gaining momentum." A senior military officer echoed this sentiment, telling Poloff that Defense HQ is "increasingly concerned" about the situation. ¶10. (U) More vehicles have taken to the streets in Abuja, but virtually all of the North remains shut down. Gas stations throughout the North have received no deliveries for more than 10 days, but fuel has been generally unavailable at stations for more than a year. In Abuja, the stations opened for business Wednesday, but were evidently ordered closed after the morning demonstrations, stranding hundreds of vehicles queued up for fuel. ¶11. (U) Port Harcourt remained very calm on Wednesday morning. Some private cars are plying the streets, but gas stations have run out of fuel and are shuttered. In spite of reports in the government-influenced press that the strike has had no effect in Rivers State, only 20 percent of the civil service, almost all senior staff, reported for work at the Federal Secretariat today. NLC representatives entered the buildings on Tuesday and effectively chased workers out. Workers arriving Wednesday morning found an increased police presence at the Secretariat compound. The federal government is both tightening security and offering incentives to civil service workers willing to come to work. One government circular requires staff to display their certificates of employment to their superiors on a daily basis. Another lists incentives such as increased housing allowances, transportation and meals upwards of 300 percent more than present rates as a ploy to entice workers back to their desks. However, similar proposals were forwarded several months ago before the dispute over wages, so most civil servants view these incentives as empty promises. FLIGHTS ON OR OFF? -------------- ¶12. (U) Domestic airlines and the government-influenced press report that normal flight operations have resumed throughout the country. Spot checks indicate, however, that many flights have been canceled for lack of passengers. Many of the few remaining flights have been delayed. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The strike appears to be holding its own into its third day. While it is difficult to assess the compliance with the NLC's "stay-at-home" directive, it is apparent that the level of confrontation on the street has risen since Monday. While the GON-influenced press generally downplays the strike, wire service reports that the country is in flames are equally exaggerated. ¶14. (C) The truth remains somewhere in between. It is unlikely that the NLC will be willing to show much flexibility without significant concessions on the part of government. Meanwhile, the Obasanjo Administration is losing even greater political support the longer the strike drags on. End Comment. JETER