NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON LIBERIA: TAYLOR IS FINISHED;

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001078 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2013 TAGS: PREL MOPS LI SL NI ECOWAS SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO ON LIBERIA: TAYLOR IS FINISHED; GON WILLING TO PROVIDE ASYLUM REF: A. ACCRA 1164 ¶B. STATE 138730 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) In two meetings on other issues during the past week, Ambassador raised developments in Liberia with President Obasanjo. Obasanjo said Taylor was "finished" as President of Liberia. Obasanjo said he, Ghanaian President Kufuor and others at the Accra talks had leaned hard on Taylor to accept a three-stage plan precluding Taylor's participation in a transition government that ultimately would lead to internationally supervised elections in Liberia. According to Obasanjo, it was this pressure that precipitated Taylor's announcement that he would leave office. ¶2. (C) Notwithstanding Taylor's indictment by the Special Court in Sierra Leone, Obasanjo reiterated the GON's willingness to offer Taylor asylum if he chooses to leave Liberia. Obasanjo said he was willing to take Taylor in, however, "something would have to be done" about the indictment. ¶3. (C) Ambassador advised Obasanjo that the GON use its influence with the LURD to get the insurgents to bridle their ambitions and maintain the cease-fire in order to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe in Monrovia. Obasanjo replied the U.S. could influence the LURD since he believed the U.S. supported and provided military assistance to the rebel group. Ambassador strongly denied USG support for the LURD. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Obasanjo still appears willing to give Taylor asylum provided the legal complications arising from the Special Court's indictment can be resolved in a manner that does not put Nigeria in violation of international law. Taylor has vowed to fight to the end and on this part he might be truer to his word than on most other commitments he has made. The GON is convinced that if Taylor remains in Liberia this will result in a blood bath for innocent Liberians, and a humanitarian catastrophe for the region. Obasanjo believes that Taylor's exile is the obvious preferred choice. Not only is Taylor's fate in the balance, the fate of thousands of Monrovians may also be at stake. Exile seems like the most practical solution and, as far as we know, Obasanjo's offer is the only one on the table. END COMMENT. JETER