NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS HE WANTS ARTICLE 98

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001033

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS KTIA NI KICC
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS HE WANTS ARTICLE 98


REF: A. STATE 144906

B. STATE 139892

C. ABUJA 1025

D. ABUJA 989

E. ABUJA 905

F. ABUJA 552

G. ABUJA 342

H. 02 ABUJA 2978

I. 02 ABUJA 2972


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) During a June 11 meeting with President Obasanjo on
Article 98 and security assistance issues (SEPTEL),
Ambassador Jeter explained the ramifications of not
concluding an Article 98 agreement by the July 1 deadline.
Obasanjo said he was in favor of Article 98. He thought
such agreements were necessary to "protect" Nigerian
soldiers and commented that Nigeria would "not participate
in peacekeeping" operations without such agreements.



2. (C) These statements indicate that Obasanjo is thinking
differently than some of his former Ministers. Former
Minister of Defense Danjuma told DCM June 7 that the inter-
ministerial committee set up to examine Article 98 opposed
the agreement (REF C). During the Ambassador's
conversation with the President, however, Obasanjo seemed
uninformed about the inter-ministerial committee's
recommendation. Also, there was some confusion amongst the
advisors present as to whether the inter-ministerial
committee had actually met.



3. (C) COMMENT: Obasanjo's support for an Article 98
agreement is welcome but it does put him at odds with many
of his advisors. Thus, this matter may not be settled
despite the strong indication given by Obasanjo in his
meeting with the Ambassador. During a private aside at
that meeting, Ambassador Jeter mentioned to Obasanjo that
Danjuma had said Nigeria would follow South Africa's lead
and not sign Article 98 (REF C AND D). Obasanjo retorted
that Nigeria was sovereign and would make its own decisions
based on its interests, not South Africa's.



4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: In the final analysis,
Obasanjo's meeting with this ad-hoc committee or his
reaction to its report (should the meeting already have
taken place but not yet reported to Obasanjo) will likely
determine if Nigeria signs an Article 98 agreement. While
it would not be unprecedented for the Obasanjo to disregard
the counsel of his advisors if he has his own strong
convictions about an issue, it is too soon to predict. END
COMMENT.
JETER