NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS HE WANTS ARTICLE 98

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001033 SIPDIS CAIRO FOR POL - MAXSTADT E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS KTIA NI KICC SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS HE WANTS ARTICLE 98 REF: A. STATE 144906 ¶B. STATE 139892 ¶C. ABUJA 1025 ¶D. ABUJA 989 ¶E. ABUJA 905 ¶F. ABUJA 552 ¶G. ABUJA 342 ¶H. 02 ABUJA 2978 ¶I. 02 ABUJA 2972 CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) During a June 11 meeting with President Obasanjo on Article 98 and security assistance issues (SEPTEL), Ambassador Jeter explained the ramifications of not concluding an Article 98 agreement by the July 1 deadline. Obasanjo said he was in favor of Article 98. He thought such agreements were necessary to "protect" Nigerian soldiers and commented that Nigeria would "not participate in peacekeeping" operations without such agreements. ¶2. (C) These statements indicate that Obasanjo is thinking differently than some of his former Ministers. Former Minister of Defense Danjuma told DCM June 7 that the inter- ministerial committee set up to examine Article 98 opposed the agreement (REF C). During the Ambassador's conversation with the President, however, Obasanjo seemed uninformed about the inter-ministerial committee's recommendation. Also, there was some confusion amongst the advisors present as to whether the inter-ministerial committee had actually met. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Obasanjo's support for an Article 98 agreement is welcome but it does put him at odds with many of his advisors. Thus, this matter may not be settled despite the strong indication given by Obasanjo in his meeting with the Ambassador. During a private aside at that meeting, Ambassador Jeter mentioned to Obasanjo that Danjuma had said Nigeria would follow South Africa's lead and not sign Article 98 (REF C AND D). Obasanjo retorted that Nigeria was sovereign and would make its own decisions based on its interests, not South Africa's. ¶4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: In the final analysis, Obasanjo's meeting with this ad-hoc committee or his reaction to its report (should the meeting already have taken place but not yet reported to Obasanjo) will likely determine if Nigeria signs an Article 98 agreement. While it would not be unprecedented for the Obasanjo to disregard the counsel of his advisors if he has his own strong convictions about an issue, it is too soon to predict. END COMMENT. JETER