NIGERIA: ECONOMIC ROUNDUP JUNE 13

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001026 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE PASS OPIC, TDA, AND EXIM STATE PASS USTR COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV EAIR EPET NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ECONOMIC ROUNDUP JUNE 13 REF: A. LAGOS 524 ¶B. ABUJA 576 ¶C. ABUJA 440 ¶1. (U) This periodic economic report from Abuja and Lagos includes: --Obasanjo Highlights Economy in Inaugural Speech . . . But Disputes Poverty Figures --Obasanjo Holds Off Naming Cabinet --GON Bans Import of Baryte, Mineral Used for Oil Drilling --World Airways Lands in Lagos --Parallel Market Exchange Rate Premium Widens --Central Bank Buys U.S. Equipment Obasanjo Highlights Economy in Inaugural Speech . . . -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) In his May 29 inaugural speech, President Obasanjo highlighted corruption, infrastructure, power supply, industrialization, agriculture, healthcare, and education as key issues for his next term. ¶3. (U) On corruption, the President said he would strengthen the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission Act to improve the handling of corruption cases in court. He pledged to construct more roads and better maintain existing ones and said his government aims to increase electrical generation to at least 10,000 megawatts a day by 2007. (Note: Current installed capacity is 6,000 megawatts a day; however, output as of January 2003 fluctuated from around 3,000 to 4,000 megawatts a day. End Note) ¶4. (U) Privatization and assistance to small and medium enterprises would be the focus for industrialization policy, Obasanjo stated. For the agricultural sector, the President said achieving food security through increased crop and livestock productivity would be the priority. The President also stressed the importance of better marketing strategies to improve returns for farmers. ¶5. (U) The President said more resources will go to hospitals and healthcare delivery systems, while in education the GON will focus on refurbishing educational institutions and implementing the World Bank's $101 million Universal Basic Education Project. . . . But Disputes Poverty Figures -------------- ¶6. (U) At a May 28 Children's Day event in Abuja, President Obasanjo disputed claims that 70 percent of Nigerians are living in poverty, declaring that such claims by economists do not reflect reality. Obasanjo said, "I was told that in 1992 it was 42 percent of Nigerians and in 1996, it jumped to 70 percent. I don't believe it . . . but if I had been informed that it was 42 per cent before the (July 2000 to October 2001 IMF) Structural Adjustment Program, and after SAP it jumped, I would gladly have accepted it." ¶7. (U) While contesting the poverty figure, Obasanjo acknowledged "intolerable poverty among our people both in rural and urban areas." However, he said that despite rural poverty, "people in villages eat relatively well and also have schools to send their children to, have feeder roads and dispensaries at their disposal at certain levels." ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Obasanjo's questioning of poverty statistics and readiness to blame the IMF was an unfortunate statement made for domestic political consumption. Coming on the eve of his inauguration, Obasanjo may have been attempting to shield his previous administration from blame for the Nigerian economy's poor performance and lack of progress in poverty alleviation. The attempt to shift blame is understandable but not very helpful. However, while Obasanjo may disagree with the actual poverty figures and grumble about the IMF, he knows that poverty is a huge problem and economic growth is a must. The priorities he outlined in his inaugural speech are useful steps to alleviate poverty and in line with the Mission's economic policy recommendations. End Comment. Obasanjo Holds Off Naming Cabinet -------------- ¶9. (U) The President said he will hold off on formally announcing his new Cabinet until the National Assembly reconvenes on June 24. Meanwhile, Abuja is buzzing with speculation on who will get what roles on Obasanjo's new economic team. ¶10. (SBU) Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a Vice President at the World Bank, is being considered for the top position at the Ministry of Finance. Okonjo-Iweala, educated at Harvard and MIT, has been with the World Bank since 1982. In 2000, she took time off from the World Bank to assist President Obasanjo in establishing a Debt Management Office. Mission contacts say Okonjo-Iweala has asked Obasanjo to appoint Charles C. Soludo as Chief Economic Advisor. Soludo, now Executive Director of the African Institute for Applied Economics, has consulted extensively for multilateral development organizations as well as USAID. Magnus Kpakol, the President's former Chief Economic Advisor, has confirmed that he will hold a new position devoted exclusively to poverty alleviation. ¶11. (SBU) Saidu Samaila Sambawa, who lost the Kebbi State governor's race as the PDP's candidate, appears to be slated to head the Ministry of Agriculture. Sambawa is an accountant, banker, and international businessman who holds a Master's Degree in Business Administration from the University of Wales. Recent press reports, however, indicate that Sambawa may be upstaged, as PDP Chairman Audu Ogbeh is rumored to be interested in the job. ¶12. (SBU) Julius Ihonvbere is rumored as the new Minister of Petroleum Resources. The new portfolio would oversee Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and manage the country's participation in OPEC. Ihonvbere is a political economist who worked from 1999 to 2002 at the Ford Foundation in New York. He returned to Nigeria June 2002 and was appointed head of Nigeria's Bitumen Implementation Commission. GON Bans Import of Baryte, Mineral Used for Oil Drilling -------------- -------------- ¶13. (U) On May 14, GON Minister for Solid Minerals Modupe Adelaja announced an import ban on baryte, a mineral form of barium sulphate. Baryte is used in oil well drilling to counter-act the force of oil and gas when released from the ground and prevent their explosion. The mineral is abundant throughout Nigeria, according to the Ministry for Solid Minerals, and is mined in small quantities. ¶14. (SBU) Oil industry contacts tell Econoffs the ban has actually been in effect for a year. They say that for a fee they have been able to get exemptions from the ban so that they can import enough baryte to continue drilling. World Airways Lands in Lagos -------------- ¶15. (U) World Airways, inaugural flight from Atlanta arrived in Lagos May 29, ending the Mission's five-month advocacy campaign on the airline's behalf to ensure the GON honored our Open Skies Agreement (Refs. A and B). At the arrival ceremony, Consul General Hinson-Jones highlighted the U.S. role in bolstering safety and security at Nigerian airports and lauded the importance of improved passenger and cargo links between the two countries. World Airways officials commended Mission advocacy efforts during the event. ¶16. (SBU) Comment: World Airways' and its booking agent Ritetime Travel's inexperience in Nigeria complicated their efforts to obtain landing rights. In early January, World advertised service from the United States to Nigeria without consulting Minister of Aviation Kema Chikwe. Slighted by the presumptive announcement, Chikwe stalled the airline's approval. The logjam was broken only when Ambassador Jeter raised the matter with President Obasanjo. World Airways--now positioned to profit from the lucrative U.S.-Nigeria cargo and passenger routes, will fly weekly from New York, Atlanta, and Houston into Lagos. End Comment. (Note: Several press reports indicate that Kema Chikwe will not return to the Ministry of Aviation, probably true because she demonstrated very little political drawing power in her home state of Imo. End Note.) Parallel Market Exchange Rate Premium Widens -------------- ¶17. (U) The Central Bank reports that the naira held steady against the dollar in April, falling by 8 kobo to 127.77 naira per dollar from the March average. Meanwhile, the naira depreciated by 1.75 naira to the dollar in the parallel market, falling to 138.75. That depreciation widened the parallel market premium from 7.6 to 8.5 percent. The naira held steady against the dollar in May, closing the month at 127.82 in the official market and 139.50 in the parallel market. Meanwhile, the Central Bank reports that external reserves stood at $9.4 billion at the end of April, up from 7.4 billion just six months ago. ¶18. Comment: In keeping steady with the U.S. dollar, the naira has weakened against the euro, falling from about 137 naira to the euro at the beginning of March to about 152 by the end of May. As a result, imported European goods are noticeably more expensive. It is unclear to what extent inflation, down to a 10.6 percent yearly rate in April, will reflect these price increases. Meanwhile, U.S. suppliers may exploit a price advantage over their European competitors if exchange rates remain steady. End Comment. Central Bank Buys U.S. Equipment -------------- ¶19. (U) In April 2003, Currency Systems International (CSI), a Dallas-based subsidiary of U.K.-based currency printing company De La Rue Systems, sold three high-speed banknote sorting machines worth $3.43 million to the Central Bank of Nigeria. CSI hopes for more sales to the Central Bank and plans to provide service and training contracts to the Central Bank in the near future. In making the sale, CSI broke a 13-year monopoly held by a German firm on sales of printing and sorting equipment to the CBN. ¶20. (SBU) CSI and De La Rue's Nigerian representatives, Interprods Ltd. of Lagos, tell Econoff that the Central Bank is poised to acquire more printing and sorting equipment later this year. In addition to banknote printing and sorting equipment, the Central Bank would require new coin pressing and sorting equipment that Interprods says it may source from the United States. ¶21. (SBU) Comment: Nigeria is a cash-based economy, and the 500 naira note is its highest denomination. This note is worth approximately four dollars, making large-scale transactions very cumbersome (Ref. A). A 1,000 naira note would simplify things to a degree. The Central Bank had plans to introduce such a note, but recently scrapped the idea citing inopportune economic conditions. For now, economists' concerns that a 1,000 naira note could encourage inflation apparently have bested consumers' demands for convenience, but the issue will likely be revisited in the next few years. End Comment. JETER