TFIZ01: PUBLIC OPINION WRAP-UP:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 001467

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR IRAQ PD TASK FORCE, NEA/ARP
AND NEA/P

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PREL PGOV TC
SUBJECT: TFIZ01: PUBLIC OPINION WRAP-UP:
RESIGNATION TURNING TO ANGER

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (U) Six days into Operation Iraqi
Freedom, even our closest and most
westernized Emirati contacts are disturbed
by the coverage they are seeing of the Iraq
war. The emotional impact of the images of
civilian casualties and the negative spin
being imparted by the vast bulk of the Arab
media are having a real effect. As one pro-
western, Boston University-educated Emirati
technocrat put it: "We are reacting
emotionally as Arabs to the death of Arab
civilians and the humiliation of a once-
proud Arab state."


2. (U) Emiratis would like the war to end as
soon as possible and with a minimum loss of
life. Several close contacts have urged us
to keep Iraqi TV off the air. Our contacts
don't understand why the U.S. has allowed
the Iraqi regime to get its message out in
what has been a devastatingly effective
propaganda campaign. While there is little
doubt here that the coalition will
ultimately prevail, there is a growing sense
that we are losing the information war.


3. (SBU) While we may not be able to turn
the tide on the strong anti-American
sentiment -- which predated this conflict --
we are taking steps to get our story on the
air and in the papers. Our Public Affairs
Office, like other in the region, is in
daily contact with the Iraq PD Task Force
and CENTCOM with recommendations on how we
can better shape our message. We are also
disseminating information, via IIP products,
to the media and the public on coalition
efforts. To help counter the slew of
misinformation, we intend to deploy our
Arabic-speaking officers to engage
informally with local journalists. At the
appropriate time, the Ambassador, a fluent
Arabic speaker, will meet with select
members of the press to get the humanitarian
story out. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT

SLEEPLESS IN ABU DHABI:
WAR WATCHING TILL DAWN
--------------


4. (U) In the UAE, as elsewhere in the Arab
world, people are closely monitoring the
course of Operation Iraqi Freedom. In a
country where even newspaper deliverymen
carry cell phones, many receive regular news
updates on their mobiles while others
exchange text messages with the latest dark-
humor jokes on the conflict. Families
gather late into the night in front of the
television set surfing the major Arabic news
satellite channels, namely, Al-Jazeera, Abu
Dhabi TV and Al-Arabiya. As one of our
contacts put it, "No one is working because
everyone is up late watching TV."


5. (SBU) Television is clearly having an
impact on public opinion in the UAE. Senior
Emiratis have expressed consternation at the
disturbing and often gruesome visuals of
dead, burned and maimed Iraqi civilians
being aired on Al-Jazeera. While there is a
belief that the coalition forces will win
the conflict on the ground in Iraq, there is
growing concern that we are losing the
information war across the entire Arab
world. As a well-connected Sharjah notable
put it to Dubai Consul General on March 25:
"Get the cameras out [of Iraq]."


AGREEMENT THAT SADDAM MUST GO
BUT RESIGNATION TURNING TO
ANGER AS CASUALTIES INCREASE
--------------


6. (U) Among elites, there is a widespread
recognition that Saddam Hussein must go, and
in this regard, key opinion makers are still
with us (in a way that they are most
definitely not on the Palestinian/Israeli
conflict). However, they are nervous
because they fear that the daily bombardment
of negative images will make it impossible
to support a goal they believe in -- getting
rid of Saddam.


7. (U) As the days go by and the number of
Iraqi civilian casualties increase, our
contacts' focus is shifting from the
suffering of the Iraqi people at the hands
of Saddam Hussein and 12 years of sanctions
to the perceived suffering of the Iraqi
people as a result of coalition bombing.
There is a general disbelief that bombs
dropped in Baghdad are hitting only
strategic targets. Rather, most comment
that "what the U.S. is doing is brutal --
bombing the people."


8. (U) The specter of an Arab country under
attack has brought to the fore an emotional
identification with fellow Arabs and
Muslims. An Emirati banker stated:
"Baghdad is the historical capital of Arab
culture and civilization. It is being
attacked and occupied. It is disgraceful
and shameful, and the images [of the
civilian casualties in Basra] are
horrifying." These sentiments are not
shared by the large Iraqi expatriate
community. An Iraqi physician downplayed
the anti-American hype in the Arab media as
a throwback to the cold war when the press
was state-controlled.

FEAR OF A LONG, DRAWN-OUT CONFLICT
--------------


9. (U) Our interlocutors' general
impression before the war was that the
operation to remove Saddam Hussein would be
quick and painless. Instead, based on what
they see on television, their general
impression is that coalition forces are not
much closer now to removing Saddam Hussein
than they were on Day 1. Many are comparing
this conflict unfavorably to the 1991 Gulf
War, in which the ground campaign lasted
only 100 hours.


10. (U) Prominent interlocutors believe
that a long, drawn-out conflict will bring
untold negative consequences to regional
economic and political stability. Their
unified message: "Hurry up and get it over
with." (Comment: In this regard, messages
from the White House and CENTCOM preparing
Americans for a long conflict, while
necessary for managing the expectations of
the American public, go down very badly here
for the coalition but in the long term will
serve to lower expectations. End comment.)


11. (U) This cable was coordinated with
ConGen Dubai.

WAHBA