Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ABUDHABI1088
2003-03-05 13:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abu Dhabi
Cable title:
UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL
how-tonull Diana T Fritz 05/24/2007 04:56:23 PM From DB/Inbox: Search Results Cable Text: CONFIDENTIAL SIPDIS TELEGRAM March 05, 2003 To: No Action Addressee Action: Unknown From: AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI (ABU DHABI 1088 - ROUTINE) TAGS: EPET, PGOV, BEXP, ENRG, ECON, EINV Captions: None Subject: UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL MARKET Ref: None _________________________________________________________________ C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 01088 SIPDIS CXABU: ACTION: ECON INFO: P/M AMB DCM POL Laser1: INFO: FCS DISSEMINATION: ECON CHARGE: PROG APPROVED: DCM: RALBRIGHT DRAFTED: ECON:CCRUMPLER CLEARED: ECON: TWILLIAMS VZCZCADI685 RR RUEHC RUEHHH RUEHDE RUCPDOC RHEBAAA DE RUEHAD #1088 0641358 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 051358Z MAR 03 FM AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8704 INFO RUEHHH/OPEC COLLECTIVE RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 2844 RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001088
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/RA, NEA/ARP, INR/EC, EB/IEP, EB/CBA
USDOE FOR INT'L AFFAIRS OBURN, ALSO CALIENDO
USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY HONDA HUDOME
USDOC FOR 1000/OC/
USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/IEP/ONE
USDOC FOR 4530/ITA/MAC/ONE/DGUGLIELMI
4500/ITA/MAC/DAS/WILLIAMSON
3131/CS/OIO/ANESA
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/05/08
TAGS: EPET PGOV BEXP ENRG ECON EINV TC
SUBJECT: UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL
MARKET
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001088
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/RA, NEA/ARP, INR/EC, EB/IEP, EB/CBA
USDOE FOR INT'L AFFAIRS OBURN, ALSO CALIENDO
USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY HONDA HUDOME
USDOC FOR 1000/OC/
USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/IEP/ONE
USDOC FOR 4530/ITA/MAC/ONE/DGUGLIELMI
4500/ITA/MAC/DAS/WILLIAMSON
3131/CS/OIO/ANESA
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/05/08
TAGS: EPET PGOV BEXP ENRG ECON EINV TC
SUBJECT: UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL
MARKET
1. (U) Classified by DCM Richard Albright, for reasons 1.5
(B) and (D).
2. (C) The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) Deputy
CEO, Abdullah Bin Nasser Al-Suwaidi does not believe that
the oil market would collapse following a military conflict
with Iraq and removal of Saddam Hussein from power. In a
March 3 meeting with Econchief and Econoff, Al-Suwaidi
posited that oil prices would likely soften a bit -- to the
$18-20 range -- if Iraq produced at full capacity, but would
not drop significantly beyond that. (Note: Others in the
UAE government, including senior officials at the mammoth
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which makes the Emirates
overseas portfolio investments, have privately expressed a
concern that a drastic drop in oil prices is inevitable,
down to possibly $8 a barrel.) Al-Suwaidi elaborated that
prices are artificially high right now, and that he recently
signed contracts for the next two months fixing the UAE's
signature 'Murban' crude at $34 per barrel.
3. (C) Al-Suwaidi does not believe that Iraq's oil
production will increase substantially in the short term,
and -- although cheap to produce -- Iraqi oil fields will
require billions of dollars in investment and several years
to realize their full potential. He intimated that the
Kirkuk and Basra fields, in particular, are in poor
condition, having been producing for decades. He also
suggested that Iraq's claimed reserves may be overstated; in
any case, he doubted that there are any large, undiscovered
deposits of oil in Iraq.
Wahba
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR NEA/RA, NEA/ARP, INR/EC, EB/IEP, EB/CBA
USDOE FOR INT'L AFFAIRS OBURN, ALSO CALIENDO
USDOE FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY HONDA HUDOME
USDOC FOR 1000/OC/
USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/IEP/ONE
USDOC FOR 4530/ITA/MAC/ONE/DGUGLIELMI
4500/ITA/MAC/DAS/WILLIAMSON
3131/CS/OIO/ANESA
E.O. 12958: DECL 03/05/08
TAGS: EPET PGOV BEXP ENRG ECON EINV TC
SUBJECT: UAE OIL OFFICIAL'S VIEWS ON IRAQ AND THE OIL
MARKET
1. (U) Classified by DCM Richard Albright, for reasons 1.5
(B) and (D).
2. (C) The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) Deputy
CEO, Abdullah Bin Nasser Al-Suwaidi does not believe that
the oil market would collapse following a military conflict
with Iraq and removal of Saddam Hussein from power. In a
March 3 meeting with Econchief and Econoff, Al-Suwaidi
posited that oil prices would likely soften a bit -- to the
$18-20 range -- if Iraq produced at full capacity, but would
not drop significantly beyond that. (Note: Others in the
UAE government, including senior officials at the mammoth
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which makes the Emirates
overseas portfolio investments, have privately expressed a
concern that a drastic drop in oil prices is inevitable,
down to possibly $8 a barrel.) Al-Suwaidi elaborated that
prices are artificially high right now, and that he recently
signed contracts for the next two months fixing the UAE's
signature 'Murban' crude at $34 per barrel.
3. (C) Al-Suwaidi does not believe that Iraq's oil
production will increase substantially in the short term,
and -- although cheap to produce -- Iraqi oil fields will
require billions of dollars in investment and several years
to realize their full potential. He intimated that the
Kirkuk and Basra fields, in particular, are in poor
condition, having been producing for decades. He also
suggested that Iraq's claimed reserves may be overstated; in
any case, he doubted that there are any large, undiscovered
deposits of oil in Iraq.
Wahba