C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 003407

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR WHA, EB, AND WHA/CEN
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON HO
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE CABINET SHAKEUP IN HONDURAS AS MADURO
LOOKS TO RECAPTURE MOMENTUM


Classified By: Ambassador Larry Palmer; Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: As President Ricardo Maduro staggers to his
first anniversary in office, there are emerging signs that he
will make some changes in his Cabinet in an effort to
recapture the political initiative in the country. One
rumored change is a new Foreign Minister. Other more
probable targets for turnover are the National Security,
Education, Health, Social Investment, Environment, and
International Foreign Assistance Coordination Ministers. On
the other hand, former Honduran Ambassador to the U.S. and
current Government and Justice Minister Jorge Ramon Hernandez
Alcerro, is poised to win broader powers and influence as he
will be given a new office in the Casa Presidencial. The
conventional political wisdom is that the President must act
now to remove ineffectual ministers and reinvigorate his
mandate. According to political commentators, early
presidential campaigning will likely begin in January 2004,
at which time the Maduro government will begin its inevitable
slide toward lame-duck status. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Over the last two weeks there is a growing strength to
the rumor that current Foreign Minister Guillermo
Perez-Cadalso Arias will leave the Foreign Ministry to become
Rector of the National University (UNAH). The Rector's
position at the autonomous UNAH is a high profile and very
political position that has been controlled by the Liberal
Party during the last eight years. The Nationalists are now
poised to claim the spot. However, there has been fierce
politicking over who should be the favored Nationalist
candidate. Sources indicate that Perez-Cadalso is emerging
as a compromise candidate who appeals to the competing
Nationalist Party sectors. The election for the new Rector
could take place this week or in early January at which time
Perez-Cadalso could leave the Foreign Ministry.


3. (C) Perez-Cadalso has performed capably but without great
fanfare at the Foreign Ministry

. He has not taken any bold
initiatives but, while not a member of the tight Maduro inner
circle, conscientiously carried out Maduro Administration
foreign policies. In particular, he has managed to lower the
previous screeching tenor of diplomatic exchanges related to
Honduras' border conflicts with its neighbors. His only
other lasting impact at the Foreign Ministry has been to
implement a crushing 18 per cent budget reduction that has
reduced the size of domestic and overseas diplomatic
operations. Perez-Cadalso has done little to help Honduras
become a party to the seven outstanding international and OAS
counterterrorism conventions/protocols, but he did sign an
ICC Article 98 Agreement with the USG. MFA DG for Foreign
Policy, AMB Mario Fortin, acknowledged the rumors of
Perez-Cadalso's possible departure but told PolOff December
19 that no decision had been made yet by President Maduro to
change the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Among rumored
replacements are current National Security Advisor Ramon
Medina Luna and Government and Justice Minister Jorge Ramon
Hernandez Alcerro.


4. (C) Casa Presidencial and press reporting inform that
Hernandez Alcerro is poised to win broader powers and
influence as he will be given a new office in the Casa
Presidencial. Political Section sources say that Hernandez
Alcerro is being brought into the Casa Presidencial to help
manage the President's political and communications
strategies. He will continue to maintain his Ministerial
portfolio but will be given new (unspecified) authority to
manage the Administration's policy initiatives. (COMMENT:
If true, Hernandez Alcerro will re-assume his campaign role
as the communications and policy czar. In our view,
Hernandez Alcerro is the only member of the Maduro inner
circle who can approach the same level of confidence with the
President that Minister of the Presidency Luis Cosenza
maintains. His entry into the Casa Presidencial could create
a significant counter-weight or complement to Cosenza's role.
Post notes that Cosenza has seemed to struggle at times as
Maduro's chief of staff. We will watch closely to see how
the presidential ambitions of these two advisors influence
internal presidential decisionmaking.)


5. (C) Ramon Medina Luna's departure from the Casa
Presidencial and/or his National Security portfolio has been
rumored since last July. However, he is a charter member of
the Maduro inner circle and, by inside accounts, continues to
retain significant access to the President and direct
involvement in the presidential decision-making process. He
is the Minister that Members of Congress most detest.
(COMMENT: In our view, a move to the Foreign Ministry would
further complicate the Maduro Administration's relations with
Congress. END COMMENT.)


6. (C) The ministers most likely to be removed in the short
time are the Education, Health, and Social Investment Fund
(FHIS). Education Minister Carlos Avila was recently voted
the worst minister by the media and is a lightening rod for
complaints by secondary schoolteachers about the Maduro
Administration's hard-line salary negotiating tactics.
(Maduro, however, has publicly supported Avila and extolled
his virtues.) The Health Minister, Elias Lizardo, while
getting high marks for his professional approach to the
Ministry, is being criticized for not placing more
Nationalist party activists in Ministry positions. Finally,
FHIS Minister, Leony Yu-way, is viewed as not directing FHIS
projects to Nationalist party interests in the departments.
(According to political sources, this reticence is not a
resistance to corruption as much as it is his unwillingness
to treat FHIS projects as a political and legislative pork
barrel.) Other Ministers whose names have been the subject
of press speculation are Environment and Natural Resources
Minister Patricia Panting (who is the chair of the ENEE Board
of Directors and could be chosen as a scapegoat if the GOH
decides to overturn the results of the recent controversial
electricity licitation) and International Foreign Assistance
Coordination (SETCO) Brenie Matute.


7. (C) COMMENT: As President Maduro staggers to his first
anniversary in office, he is clearly grasping for a way to
recapture the political initiative. The conventional
political wisdom is the President must act now to remove
ineffectual ministers and reinvigorate his mandate. Maduro
recently reiterated publicly that he would regularly review
Ministerial performance. Two ministers (Security Ministry
Arias and Trade Minister Handal) were forced out earlier this
year after they were no longer producing desired results. A
change in some Ministers would also allow Maduro to win some
points with Nationalists (especially in Congress) for
responding to their criticism about the overly technocratic
makeup of his government. According to political
commentators, early presidential campaigning will likely
begin in January 2004 at which time the Maduro government
will begin its inevitable slide toward lame-duck status.
Given this time-frame, some advisors are suggesting that
President Maduro cannot delay making changes to Ministers who
are not performing well. Maduro, himself, has fared poorly
in popularity polls. He states, however, that he is not
concerned about his popularity as long as he is acting in the
best interest of the Honduran people. END COMMENT.
Palmer