RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE DOES NOT EQUATE TO EUROPE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 000073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT PREL IT EU EUPGOV ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE DOES NOT EQUATE TO EUROPE
WITHOUT ITALY

REF: A) ROME 67 B) ROME 65 C) 2001 ROME 6573

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CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE WILLIAM P. POPE, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: MEDIA ANALYSIS TO THE
CONTRARY, THE WEEKEND "RESIGNATION" (UNDER DURESS) OF FM
RENATO RUGGIERO DOES NOT EQUATE TO AN ABOUT-FACE IN ITALY'S
PRO-EUROPEAN STANCE. ITALY WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN EUROPE --
AND IN NATO, AND A SOLID PARTNER OF THE U.S. RUGGIERO'S
DEPARTURE IS THE END OF A FORCED MARRIAGE BETWEEN TWO
STRONG-WILLED INDIVIDUALS, ONE OF WHOM (RUGGIERO) HAD NO
ORGANIZED POLITICAL SUPPORT. BERLUSCONI IS LIKELY TO SELECT
(BUT NOT NECESSARILY SOON) A POLITICIAN TO REPLACE RUGGIERO,
SOMEONE WHO WILL ENSURE THAT IN FOREIGN POLICY, AS IN
DOMESTIC, THE GOI SPEAKS WITH ONE VOICE. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ASSERT ITALY'S
RIGHT TO PROTECT ITS INTERESTS WITHIN THE INSTITUTIONS TO
WHICH IT BELONGS, SOMETHING THAT IS ANATHEMA TO ITALY'S LEFT.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.


2. (C) DESPITE SOME MEDIA HEADLINES TRUMPETING THE TRIUMPH
OF THOSE IN THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT WHO ARE "AGAINST
EUROPE," THE WEEKEND RESIGNATION OF ITALY'S FOREIGN MINISTER
RENATO RUGGIERO DOES NOT SIGNIFY THAT THE GOI IS TURNING ITS
BACK ON EUROPE. THE PRIME MINISTER HIMSELF SAID ITALY'S
FUTURE LIES "IN A STRONGER EUROPE" AND STRESSED "ITALY'S
ABSOLUTE COMMITMENT TO THE EURO, TO EUROPE AND TO NATO." ALL
GOI CABINET-LEVEL OFFICIALS HAVE SAID MUCH THE SAME THING --
PERCEIVED CRITICISM OR LACK OF ENTHUSIASM FOR THE EURO
NOTWITHSTANDING. FINANCE MINISTER TREMONTI, A BLUNT,
LONG-TIME EURO-SKEPTIC, SAID THE GOI'S "PRO-EUROPEAN ECONOMIC
POLICY...HAS BEEN PROVEN... WE BELIEVE IN THE EURO." AND
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FINI ADDED "WE REMAIN TOTALLY COMMITTED
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TO EUROPE." WHILE BERLUSCONI AND HIS MINISTERS HAVE
OCCASIONALLY MADE CLEAR THEIR DESIRE TO ENSURE THAT ITALY'S
INTERESTS ARE NOTED AND RESPECTED BY ITS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES,
THEY HAVE NEVER THREATENED TO TAKE ITALY OUT OF EUROPE. ANY
MENTION OF "ITALIAN INTERESTS" AS SOMETHING DISTINCT FROM
"EUROPEAN INTERESTS," HOWEVER, IS ANATHEMA TO THE ITALIAN
LEFT. WHILE NOT WANTING TO GET ON THE BANDWAGON OF SEEING
PLOTS AND CONSPIRACIES, IT IS A FACT THAT MOST EUROPEAN
NATIONS ARE CURRENTLY HEADED BY CENTER-LEFT GOVERNMENTS, MANY
OF WHOM HAD, AND PROBABLY RETAIN, DEEP SUSPICIONS OF
BERLUSCONI HIMSELF AND HIS NORTHERN LEAGUE AND NATIONAL
ALLIANCE PARTNERS. THE EUROPEAN MEDIA ALSO TEND TO REFLECT
SUCH VIEWPOINTS.


3. (C) THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT IS WARY THAT THE UNION IS
MOVING TOO FAR, TOO FAST ON MANY ISSUES, THAT ITALY'S
INTERESTS ARE NOT BEING CONSIDERED (A REFLECTION PERHAPS OF
BEING SEEN AS A LESSER PLAYER IN THE EU),AND THAT THE
COMMISSION IS HAM-STRINGING ITALY IN DEMANDING THAT STABILITY
PACT TARGETS BE FULFILLED. FINI CONTINUED HIS QUOTE ABOVE
SAYING "WE ALSO RESERVE OUR RIGHT TO DEFEND OUR INTERESTS,
JUST AS THE FRENCH AND THE GERMANS AND THE BRITISH DO."
TREMONTI STRONGLY BELIEVES THAT THE SINGLE CURRENCY IS NOT
THE PANACEA TO EUROPE'S ECONOMIC WOES, THOUGH IT WILL HELP TO
FACILITATE BUSINESS AND TRADE. HE WOULD PREFER THAT THE
COMMISSION STICK TO FUNCTIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS.
RETICENCE TOWARD THE EURO AND THE COMMISSION ARE NOT,
HOWEVER, TANTAMOUNT TO OPPOSING EITHER THE UNION OR THE EURO.
AND THE EURO-SKEPTICS IN THE GOVERNMENT HAVE THEIR
COUNTERBALANCES. PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC CIAMPI REMAINS ON
BOARD AND COULD BE EXPECTED TO PUT UP A STRONG FIGHT, AS
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WOULD THE ITALIAN PUBLIC AND PARLIAMENT, IF SKEPTICISM LED TO
AN IDEA OF FORSAKING EUROPE -- WHICH THIS GOVERNMENT DOES NOT
INTEND TO DO.


4. (C) RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE IS THE RESULT OF A CLASH OF
PERSONALITIES AND STYLES, AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE.
RUGGIERO, AS NOTED REF A AND C, WAS TO SOME DEGREE FOISTED ON
BERLUSCONI. HIS "MEDDLING" IN DEFENSE MATTERS (REF C),AND
MORE RECENTLY IN THE EURO (REF A) WAS GUARANTEED NOT TO
ENDEAR HIM TO HIS FELLOW MINISTERS. IN THE MORE RECENT
EXCHANGES, HIS TRUMPETING OF HIS OWN POPULARITY (WHICH
ACCORDING TO RECENT POLLS REMAINS HIGH -- HIGHER THAN
BERLUSCONI'S),ESPECIALLY AMONG OPPOSITION POLITICIANS, WAS
EQUALLY CERTAIN TO RAISE THE HACKLES OF HIS BOSS, THE PM. AS
A "TECHNOCRATIC MINISTER" (WHETHER OR NOT HE LIKES THE TERM),
RUGGIERO LACKED A POLITICAL PARTY TO SUPPORT HIM, TO TELL THE
PM THAT "THIS IS OUR PERSON ON YOUR TEAM AND HE MUST STAY."
AS THE PROFESSIONAL DIPLOMAT, RUGGIERO MIGHT HAVE BEEN
EXPECTED TO SHOW LOYALTY, CALM MATTERS DOWN, OPERATE BEHIND
THE SCENES. BUT THIS WAS NOT THE CASE. WHILE BERLUSCONI MAY
HAVE PLAYED THE SAME GAME, RUGGIERO HAS AT TIMES ACTED IN A
PETULANT MANNER, COMING CLOSE TO CHORTLING OVER HIS VICTORIES
(AS IN THE ARREST WARRANT CASE) IN PUBLIC.

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USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 000073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT PREL IT EU EUPGOV ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE DOES NOT EQUATE TO EUROPE
WITHOUT ITALY


5. (C) RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY,
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BERLUSCONI'S PROMISE TO HOLD THE FOREIGN MINISTER'S PORTFOLIO
FOR "AT LEAST SIX MONTHS," MAY SIGNAL CHANGES IN THE MFA, BUT
THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE IN TERMS OF SOME PERSONNEL. AS
NOTED REF C, WE WONDER IF INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE PERCEIVED AS
BEING EITHER "RUGGIERO'S" OR LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC IN
PROMOTING GOI POLICY MIGHT BE CHANGED. BERLUSCONI ALSO
INDICATED IN EARLY PRESS INTERVIEWS THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE
INCREASED EMPHASIS BY ITALIAN AMBASSADORS ON SUPPORTING
ITALY'S SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES AND INCREASING
EXPORTS. HE SUGGESTED HE WOULD LIKE TO EVALUATE AMBASSADORS
ON THESE TERMS AND PERHAPS APPOINT MORE POLITICAL
AMBASSADORS. THESE KINDS OF CHANGES DO NOT PORTEND A DRASTIC
CHANGE IN FOCUS FOR ITALIAN FOREIGN POLICY, BUT RATHER A
CHANGE IN NUANCE REFLECTIVE OF BERLUSCONI'S STYLE AND
PRIORITIES.


6. (C) SIMILARLY, RUGGIERO'S DEPARTURE DOES NOT FORETELL A
WEAKENING OF ITALIAN SUPPORT FOR NATO OR A WEAKER PARTNERSHIP
WITH THE U.S. BERLUSCONI BELIEVES HIMSELF TO BE ON CLOSE
PERSONAL TERMS WITH PRESIDENT BUSH AND HAS EVERY INTENTION OF
FURTHER CEMENTING THAT RELATIONSHIP. BERLUSCONI APPEARS TO
HAVE SOLID PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THIS POSITION, AS OPINION POLLS
CONTINUE TO REFLECT SOLID BACKING FOR STRONG ITALIAN TIES TO
BOTH EUROPE AND THE U.S.


7. (C) WE DO NOT DOUBT THAT THE OPPOSITION WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGE TO WORK AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. AS
ONE OBSERVER NOTED, "THAT'S THE WAY OF ITALIAN POLITICS."
BUT THE GOVERNMENT RETAINS ITS STRONG MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT;
PERHAPS THAT IS WHY BERLUSCONI WAS QUICK TO PRONOUNCE HIMSELF
READY FOR A PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE ON ITALIAN FOREIGN POLICY.
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WE WOULD NOT EXPECT SUCH A DEBATE TO SHOW AN ITALY HOSTILE TO
EUROPE, TO NATO, OR TO THE U.S. RATHER, IT IS LIKELY THE
OPPOSITION WOULD LEVEL ANTI-EUROPE CHARGES AT THE GOVERNMENT,
WHICH WOULD RESPOND BY DECLARING ITS LOYALTY TO ALL THE ABOVE
INSTITUTIONS TO THE EXTENT THAT THEY PROTECT ITALY'S
INTERESTS. WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE AN ESCALATION OF CLAIMS
ABOUT WHO IS MORE LOYAL TO EUROPE THAN WHO IS MORE ANXIOUS TO
LEAVE IT.


8. (C) IN TERMS OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, IT APPEARS
POSSIBLE THAT BERLUSCONI MAY HOLD THE MFA REINS FOR SEVERAL
MONTHS. FOLLOWING THAT, WE THINK IT MOST LIKELY HE WILL
APPOINT A TRUSTED POLITICAL ALLY TO HEAD THE MFA, SOMEONE HE
CAN COUNT ON TO PREVENT FUTURE PUBLIC EMBARRASSMENTS OF THE
KIND HE SUFFERED REPEATEDLY WITH RUGGIERO. IN THE MEANTIME,
WE DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLESALE WITCH-HUNT FOR THE "LEFTISTS"
PERCEIVED BY SOME ON THE RIGHT TO BE INFILTRATING THE
FARNESINA. BERLUSCONI MAY NEED SOME OF THE TOP LEVEL TO HELP
HIM RUN THE PLACE FOR A TIME. IN THE NEAR TERM, SECRETARY
GENERAL BALDOCCI WILL LIKELY BE A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER. ON
THE OTHER HAND, POLITICAL DIRECTOR ARAGONA, COORDINATOR FOR
COUNTERTERRORISM ARMELLINI, AND OTHERS PERCEIVED AS DIRECT
"RUGGIERO MEN" MAY BE LOOKING FOR NEW POSITIONS OVER THE
MEDIUM TERM.
POPE

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2002ROME00073 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL