CHR-59 LIBYAN CHAIRMANSHIP: ITALIANS COULD ACCEPT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 006002 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR IO, IO/UNP, IO/SHA, DRL, DRL/MA AND EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2004 TAGS: PHUM PREL IT PREL IT LY UN LYPHUM UN SUBJECT: CHR-59 LIBYAN CHAIRMANSHIP: ITALIANS COULD ACCEPT "CONSTRUCTIVE" LETTER OR STATEMENT REF: A) STATE 258439 B) ROME 5802 C) STATE 244156 CLASSIFIED BY: POL M/C TOM COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ITALY CONTINUES TO OPPOSE CONFRONTATIONAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 06002 01 OF 02 161821Z TACTICS TO OVERTURN LIBYA'S CHAIRMANSHIP OF CHR-59 THAT COULD DAMAGE THE COMMISSION'S LONGER-TERM VIABILITY OR THAT LEAD PIECEMEAL TO A FORCED VOTE ON THE MATTER. THE BERLUSCONI GOVERNMENT'S REFLEXIVE SUPPORT FOR U.S. POLICY HAS, IN THIS NARROW CASE, BEEN TRUMPED BY AN UNYIELDING SUPPORT FOR THE UN SYSTEM, AND ITS CONSENSUAL DECISION-MAKING, AND A BELIEF THAT THEIR POLICY OF ENGAGING LIBYA IS SLOWLY MOVING QADAFFI IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. THE ITALIANS HAVE NO ILLUSIONS ABOUT QADAFFI'S REGIME AND WOULD WORK IN ADVANCE TO PREVENT MORE PROMINENT LIBYAN POSITIONS IN THE UN SYSTEM. BUT THEY BELIEVE THE MORE CEREMONIAL NATURE OF THE CHR CHAIRMANSHIP MAKES IT AN APPROPRIATE POSITION TO TEST AND ENCOURAGE QADAFFI'S COMMITMENT TO REHABILITATING LIBYA'S INTERNATIONAL STANDING. THEY ARE NOT WILLING TO JEOPARDIZE'S THE COMMISSION'S FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS -- AND THEIR OWN FUTURE CANDIDACY -- THROUGH AN OPEN-ENDED SERIES OF CRITICAL WEOG LETTERS AND STATEMENTS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT IS PREPARED CONDITIONALLY TO SUPPORT A WEOG LETTER OF CONCERN AND, PERHAPS, A GROUP STATEMENT ON LIBYA'S CHAIRMANSHIP, OFFICIALS AT PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE AND THE MFA TOLD US DECEMBER 16. THEIR LIKELY SUPPORT FOR A LETTER OR STATEMENT WOULD BE CONTINGENT UPON: -- THE OVERALL STRATEGY: ITALY WOULD NOT AGREE TO AN OPEN-ENDED, PIECEMEAL APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A SERIES OF AD-HOC MEASURES CULMINATING IN A JANUARY 20 VOTE IF THE LIBYAN CANDIDATE WAS NOT REPLACED. SUCH AN ESCALATORY APPROACH WOULD BE OVERLY CONFRONTATIONAL, REDUCING PROSPECTS FOR ANY PRODUCTIVE WORK AT THIS YEAR'S CHR AND ENDANGERING CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 06002 01 OF 02 161821Z THE WEOG'S EFFECTIVENESS IN FUTURE COMMISSIONS. ITALY COULD ACCEPT A LETTER OR STATEMENT IN LIEU OF A VOTE: BUT NOT AS A FIRST STEP THAT CULMINATED IN A VOTE. -- THE TONE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE LETTER AND/OR STATEMENT: IT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY CRITICAL OF THE AFRICAN GROUP FOR SELECTING LIBYA BUT SHOULD INSTEAD CONCENTRATE ON STATING CLEARLY WEOG EXPECTATIONS AND RED LINES FOR LIBYA'S CHAIRMANSHIP. IN RESPONSE, WE HAVE UNDERSCORED THE DANGER IN PULLING THE PUNCH TOO MUCH; IN THAT SCENARIO, WE COULD END UP WITH BOTH A WEAK OR DISUNIFIED EXPRESSION OF CONCERN (OUR LEAST-FAVORED OUTCOME) AND A CONFRONTATIONAL VOTE, THE GOI'S LEAST-FAVORED OUTCOME. ¶3. (C) CONTACTS IN THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE TOLD US PM BERLUSCONI WAS AWARE OF THE LIBYAN CHAIRMANSHIP ISSUE; THE PM WANTED AN OUTCOME GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH HIS POLICY OF REALISTIC ENGAGEMENT WITH LIBYA REINFORCED BY HIS OCTOBER VISIT TO TRIPOLI. DURING THAT VISIT, THE ITALIAN DELEGATION (THOUGH NOT BERLUSCONI PERSONALLY) HAD DISCUSSED WITH THE LIBYANS A RANGE OF ACTIVITIES -- INCLUDING THE CHR CHAIRMANSHIP -- THAT COULD GRADUALLY REINTEGRATE LIBYA INTO THE WIDER INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. AS A RESULT, ITALY WAS IN THE DIFFICULT POSITION OF SUPPORTING BROAD WEOG EFFORTS TO REGISTER CONCERNS ABOUT LIBYA'S CHAIRMANSHIP WITHOUT VIOLATING ITS BILATERAL COMMITMENT TO TRIPOLI, MADE BEFORE THE U.S. EXPRESSED ITS STRONG OPPOSITION TO A LIBYAN CHAIR. CONSEQUENTLY, WE LEARNED SEPARATELY FROM MAGHREB OFFICE DIRECTOR BELLAVIA, ITALY WAS PURSUING A STATEMENT THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 06002 01 OF 02 161821Z CREATED A FRAMEWORK AND OUTLINED WEOG EXPECTATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING CHR SESSION RATHER THAN ONE THAT EXCESSIVELY CRITICIZED THE AFRICA GROUP'S SELECTION OF LIBYA. ¶4. (C) EVEN BEFORE THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN GENEVA, WE HAD BEEN PRESSING THE CASE AGAINST LIBYAN CHAIRMANSHIP AT SUCCESSIVELY HIGHER LEVELS, STRESSING THE IMPORTANCE OF CONVEYING WEOG CONCERNS PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY RECESS. WITH MINOR VARIATIONS, THE REPLY HAS BEEN THE SAME: SKEPTICISM THAT THE AFRICA GROUP COULD BE PERSUADED TO NOMINATE ANOTHER CHAIR MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE COMMISSION'S IDEALS; AND CONCERN ABOUT COLLATERAL DAMAGE TO THE NORMAL COMITY AMONG UN REGIONAL GROUPS. THE LATTER CONCERN CLEARLY REVOLVES AROUND ITALY'S PROSPECTIVE TENURE ON (AND, PERHAPS, CHAIRMANSHIP OF) THE 2004 SESSION OF THE COMMISSION. ¶5. (C) REINFORCING THE ITALIAN VIEW IS THE RELATIVE PAUCITY, IN THEIR ANALYSIS, OF COMPELLING ALTERNATIVE CHAIRS WITHIN THE AFRICA GROUP. MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL FOR NEA BADINI COUNTERED DCM'S DECEMBER 6 PITCH ON THE ISSUE BY OBSERVING THAT LIBYA'S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD WAS NOT WORSE THAN ITS MAGHREB NEIGHBORS OR, FOR THAT MATTER, THOSE OF MOST MEMBERS OF THE AFRICA GROUP. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1076 PAGE 01 ROME 06002 02 OF 02 161821Z ACTION IO-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 PERC-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /005W -------------- 18853E 161822Z /38 O 161816Z DEC 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7341 USMISSION GENEVA IMMEDIATE USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE INFO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 006002 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR IO, IO/UNP, IO/SHA, DRL, DRL/MA AND EUR/WE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2004 TAGS: PHUM PREL IT PREL IT LY UN LYPHUM UN SUBJECT: CHR-59 LIBYAN CHAIRMANSHIP: ITALIANS COULD ACCEPT "CONSTRUCTIVE" LETTER OR STATEMENT ¶6. (C) COMMENT: THE ITALIANS HAVE SUPPORTED VIRTUALLY EVERY MAJOR U.S. INITIATIVE SINCE PM BERLUSCONI ENTERED OFFICE 18 MONTHS AGO (INCLUDING STEPPING ASIDE WITHIN THE WEOG TO ALLOW THE U.S. TO REGAIN A SEAT IN THE 2003 SESSION OF THE HUMAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 06002 02 OF 02 161821Z RIGHTS COMMISSION). BUT THAT SUPPORT TAILS OFF WHEN THE OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS OF THE UN SYSTEM OR, IN THIS CASE, ONE OF ITS COMPONENTS, IS THREATENED (IN THEIR VIEW) BY AN OVERLY SPECIFIC U.S. OBJECTIVE. THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT WILL NOT SUPPORT MEASURES WITHIN THE WEOG THAT ARE, IN THEIR VIEW, LITTLE MORE THAN SPEED BUMPS ON THE ROAD TO A "CONFRONTATIONAL" VOTE JANUARY 20. BUT THEY ARE PREPARED TO EXPLORE LANGUAGE THAT PUTS THE WEOG ON RECORD, AND LIBYA AND THE AFRICA GROUP ON NOTICE, REGARDING OUR CONCERNS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE 2003 SESSION. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME06002 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL