DUTCH QUESTIONS ON FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 005937 SIPDIS FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR AMBASSADOR BRAZEAL AND USAID UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ROME 05937 01 OF 02 111640Z ACTING DIRECTOR PARK USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL AND USAID REDSO STATE FOR A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S IO HOLMES AND AF/E USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, D/DCHA/FFP LLANDIS USDA/FAS FOR MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH AND LREICH NSC FOR JWDORKEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR EU ER ET AORC PREF EAGR EU ER ET NL WFP UN NL EAID WFP UN SUBJECT: DUTCH QUESTIONS ON FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA REF: (A) THE HAGUE 3457 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. USMISSION PROVIDES A RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS RAISED IN REF A, RELATED TO THE LOCAL AVAILABIITY OF FOOD RESOURCES FOR LOCAL/REGIONAL PURCHASE IN THE HORN OF AFRICA AND THE FOOD AID PIPELINE FOR ETHIOPIA IN EARLY 2003. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- QUESTION: WHAT IS THE AVAILABILITY OF FOOD FOR LOCAL/REGIONAL PURCHASE FOR FOOD AID IN THE HORN OF AFRICA? -------------- -------------- ¶2. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES BY THE FAO/WFP MISSION PRESENTLY UNDERWAY SHOW A 25 PERCENT DECLINE IN NATIONAL "MEHER" (MAIN GROWING SEASON) CEREAL AND PULSE PRODUCTION FROM LAST YEAR TO THIS YEAR IN ETHIOPIA, RESULTING IN AN ESTIMATED TOTAL UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ROME 05937 01 OF 02 111640Z CEREAL AND PULSE PRODUCTION OF 8.95 MILLION MT, A 21 PERCENT DECLINE COMPARED WITH AVERAGE PRODUCTION. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND AFTER MAKING FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT BEGINNING AND ENDING STOCKS, 2003 "BELG" (MINOR GROWING SEASON) PRODUCTION, SEED REQUIREMENTS AND POST-HARVEST LOSSES, COMMERCIAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS, IT IS PROBABLE THAT THERE WILL BE A CEREALS AND PULSES DEFICIT OF ABOUT 2.5 MILLION MT IN ETHIOPIA IN 2003. GIVEN OVERALL DECLINE IN THE PRODUCTION OF CEREALS IN THE COUNTRY, PRICES CAN BE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE BEFORE THE BELG HARVEST IN JUNE. ¶3. IN ERITREA, THE FAO/WFP MISSION FORECASTS A CEREALS HARVEST OF 74,000 MTS, NEARLY 60 PERCENT BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THE LAST TEN YEARS. IN SUDAN, AS PER FAO, PROSPECTS FOR 2002 CROPS, NOW BEING HARVESTED, ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE. ¶4. THE GENERAL CONCLUSION IS THAT, GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL GRAIN DEFICIT ANTICIPATED IN 2003, MOST OF THE FOOD AID REQUIRED WILL HAVE TO BE IMPORTED FROM EXTERNAL SOURCES. DONORS ARE FREE TO EXPLORE POSSIBLE AVAILABILITY ELSEWHERE IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA. IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM AND THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION PLAN TO CONDUCT IN THE NEAR FUTURE A LOCAL CEREAL AVAILABILITY STUDY IN ETHIOPIA TO ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE (IF ANY) OF CEREALS FOOD AID AVAILABLE LOCALLY, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AVOIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT PRICE IMPACT ON LOCAL MARKETS. -------------- -------------- QUESTION: WILL THE FOOD GAP BE SUFFICIENTLY COVERED BY DONORS THROUGH JANUARY 2003? -------------- -------------- UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ROME 05937 01 OF 02 111640Z ¶5. IN ETHIOPIA, OUT OF A TOTAL OF OVER 897,000 MT FOOD ASSISTANCE REQUIRED IN 2002, ONLY ABOUT 581,000 MT, OR 65 PERCENT, WAS OBTAINED FROM DONORS, INCLUDING A CONTRIBUTION OF 47,600 MT BY THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT (GFDRE). DONOR RESPONSE TO THE 2002 APPEAL INCREASED FROM AN AVERAGE OF 46 PERCENT OF NEEDS DURING JANUARY-JUNE, TO 69 PERCENT DURING JULY-DECEMBER. CARRYOVER PLEDGES FROM 2002 ALLOCATIONS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70,000 MT. THIS IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO COVER 64 PERCENT OF 109,000 MT REQUIRED IN JANUARY 2003. ¶6. WITH 2003 FIRST QUARTER NEEDS ESTIMATED AT NEARLY 411,000 MT (MONTHLY REQUIREMENTS EXCEEDING 100,000 MT THROUGH JULY), FOOD ASSISTANCE IS URGENTLY REQUIRED TO PREVENT A BREAK IN THE ETHIOPIA FOOD AID PIPELINE. ¶7. EQUALLY WORRISOME ARE THE CURRENTLY LOW STOCK LEVELS IN THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY FOOD SECURITY RESERVE (EFSR), ESTABLISHED IN THE 1980S IN ORDER TO BRIDGE THE PERIOD BETWEEN FOOD AID PLEDGES AND FOOD AID ARRIVALS. A FIRM DONOR PLEDGE OF FOOD AID GRAIN ALLOWS THE EFSR TO RELEASE A CORRESPONDING VOLUME FOR RAPID DISTRIBUTION BY THE GFDRE'S DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS COMMISSION (DPPC) AND UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTQ7025 PAGE 01 ROME 05937 02 OF 02 111641Z ACTION IO-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00 UTED-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 IRM-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 ECA-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 162B2D 111822Z /38 P 111503Z DEC 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7281 INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA AMEMBASSY ASMARA AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY OTTAWA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY TOKYO USEU BRUSSELS 3000 USMISSION GENEVA USMISSION USUN NEW YORK UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 005937 SIPDIS FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR AMBASSADOR BRAZEAL AND USAID UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ROME 05937 02 OF 02 111641Z ACTING DIRECTOR PARK USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL AND USAID REDSO STATE FOR A/S PRM DEWEY, A/S IO HOLMES AND AF/E USAID FOR AA/DCHA WINTER, D/DCHA/FFP LLANDIS USDA/FAS FOR MCHAMBLISS, RTILSWORTH AND LREICH NSC FOR JWDORKEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR EU ER ET AORC PREF EAGR EU ER ET NL WFP UN NL EAID WFP UN SUBJECT: DUTCH QUESTIONS ON FOOD CRISIS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (NGOS); THIS "LOAN" FROM THE EFSR IS REPAID WHEN THE NEWLY PLEDGED FOOD AID ARRIVES IN COUNTRY. ¶8. AT PRESENT, THE EFSR HAS ONLY ABOUT 103,000 MT OUT OF A TOTAL RESERVE STOCK LEVEL OF 405,000 MT. UNLESS REPAYMENTS OF OUTSTANDING LOANS AND DELIVERY OF NEWLY PLEDGED FOOD AID ARE MADE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE, FOOD AID DISTRIBUTIONS WILL BE DISRUPTED, RATIONS WILL BE REDUCED OR DISTRIBUTIONS WILL BE HALTED ALTOGETHER. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDRE AND THE UN IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID. LOCAL PURCHASES, WHILE IN THEORY AN ATTRACTIVE OPTION, WILL NOT INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CEREALS IN COUNTRY - AND THE PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENTS INDICATE MAJOR UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ROME 05937 02 OF 02 111641Z CEREAL PRODUCTION SHORTFALLS IN ETHIOPIA, ERITREA AND SUDAN. IN SHORT, ACTIONS TAKEN NOW BY THE GFDRE AND DONOR AGENCIES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THESE PRE-FAMINE CONDITIONS CAN BE MITIGATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS -- OR DEVELOP INTO A FULL-FLEDGED FAMINE. HALL UNCLASSIFIED > 2002ROME05937 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED