ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 004735 SIPDIS FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ROME 04735 01 OF 03 301506Z AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID ACTING DIRECTOR PARK USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS NSC FOR JDWORKEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS FORSEEN REF: (A) ADDIS ABABA 3199, (B) ADDIS ABABA 3111 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE VISITED ETHIOPIA SEPTEMBER 16-20, AND TRAVELED IN DROUGHT AFFECTED WOREDAS OF EAST AND WEST HARARGE REGION. ASSESSMENTS OF THIS AREA, IN ADDITION TO TIGRAY, WOLLO AND THE SOUTHERN REGION - SHOW A SERIOUS EMERGENCY SITUATION DEVELOPING AS THE MAJOR (MEHER) CROP RAINS DRAW TO A CLOSE. CROP LOSSES ARE WIDESPREAD, PARTICULARLY IN ETHIOPIA'S MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AREAS. MANY VULNERABLE GROUPS, PARTICULARLY CHILDREN, WILL REQUIRE CONTINUING FOOD AND NON-FOOD SUPPORT TO MEET THEIR BASIC NEEDS, PARTICULARLY IN 2003. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ROME 04735 01 OF 03 301506Z BACKGROUND - "DOES THE ROAD LEAD UP HILL ALL THE WAY? YES, TO THE VERY END." -------------- -------------- ¶2. USMISSION/ROME HUMANITARIAN ATTACHE TIM LAVELLE VISITED ETHIOPIA SEPTEMBER 16-20, 2002, AND TRAVELED WITH DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS (DPCC) COMMISSIONER SIMON MECHALE, USAID ETHIOPIA'S TIM SHORTLEY, AND WORLD FOOD PROGRAM STAFF (THE TRIP'S ABLE FACILITATOR) VIA VEHICLE AND ETHIOPIAN ARMY-PROVIDED HELICOPTER THROUGH THE HIGHLANDS, MIDLANDS AND LOWLANDS OF EAST AND WEST HARARGE, WHERE AN ESTIMATED 2 MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY AFFECTED THIS YEAR BY SERIOUS DROUGHT (REF A). ¶3. ETHIOPIA IS BIGGER THAN FRANCE AND SPAIN COMBINED, AND WITH AROUND 65 MILLION, HAS THE THIRD LARGEST POPULATION IN AFRICA. EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION LIVE IN RURAL AREAS. ITS GDP PER CAPITA IS USD 100. A MAJOR FEATURE OF THE CLIMATE IS THE UNRELIABLE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL. ETHIOPIA SUFFERED TWO LARGE-SCALE, DROUGHT-INDUCED FAMINES IN RECENT TIMES (1973/74 AND 1983/84),AND, THANKS TO MASSIVE DONOR SUPPORT, SUCCESSFULLY AVERTED FAMINE IN 1999/2000. ¶4. ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE COUNTRY'S TRADITIONAL DROUGHT- AFFECTED POPULATIONS LIVE IN THREE REGIONS: TIGRAY, WOLLO AND HARARGE. SINCE THE 1983-84 FAMINE, ETHIOPIA HAS RECEIVED AN ANNUAL AVERAGE LEVEL OF 700,000 MTS OF FOOD AID, WHICH PRESENTLY MEETS APPROXIMATELY 15 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S FOOD NEEDS. AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 MILLION PEOPLE IN ETHIOPIA REQUIRE RELIEF ASSISTANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR IRRESPECTIVE OF CLIMATIC SHOCKS. UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ROME 04735 01 OF 03 301506Z ¶5. IN EARLY 2002, THE ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT (GFDRE) APPEALED FOR SOME 557,000 TONS OF FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR UP TO 5 MILLION PERSONS WHO WERE ADJUDGED UNABLE TO MEET THEIR FOOD CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE YEAR. THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER, THE TOTAL RESPONSE (INCLUDING A GFDRE INPUT OF 45,000 TONS) EQUALED 392,000 TONS (70 PERCENT). PRESENT ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE MAIN SEASON FOOD CROP PRODUCTION WILL FALL BY A RANGE OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT AS COMPARED TO THE LAST FOUR-YEAR AVERAGE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE PRICE OF MAIZE (A BASIC STAPLE) HAS RISEN TO ADDIS ABABA BY 66 PERCENT OVER THE PAST FIVE MONTHS. ¶6. INDEPENDENT OF THE PRESENTLY UNFOLDING DROUGHT, 1998-2000 WAR-INDUCED POPULATION DISPLACEMENTS, AND LIMITED PURCHASING POWER IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, CONSIDER: -APPROXIMATELY ONE-FIFTH OF ETHIOPIAN CHILDREN DIE BEFORE REACHING THEIR 5TH BIRTHDAY; -ETHIOPIA'S AGROECOSYSTEMS ARE AFFLICTED BY CHRONIC ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS. EROSION IS AN EVER-PRESENT THREAT PARTICULARLY TO FARMERS IN THE HIGHLANDS. SOIL QUALITY AND LAND PRODUCTIVITY IS LOW; CEREAL YIELDS STAGNATED BETWEEN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO8797 PAGE 01 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z ACTION IO-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00 UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 IRM-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PRM-00 SAS-00 /006W -------------- EF0B1B 301526Z /38 P 301436Z SEP 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6072 USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2303 INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ASMARA AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OTTAWA USEU BRUSSELS 2830 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION GENEVA UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 004735 SIPDIS FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID ACTING DIRECTOR PARK USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS NSC FOR JDWORKEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS FORSEEN 1980-1997 AT AROUND 1.2 TONS PER HECTARE. AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION IS ENTIRELY IN THE HANDS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND FARMERS' PARTICIPATION IS LIMITED; -ABOUT THREE GENERATIONS AGO, ETHIOPIA WAS 50 PERCENT FOREST. THE LEVEL TODAY IS LESS THAN FIVE PERCENT; -A RECENT ASSESSMENT ON FOOD SECURITY CONCLUDED THAT NUTRITIONAL STANDARDS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. IN NORMAL YEARS, 40 PERCENT OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS DO NOT PRODUCE ENOUGH FOOD OR INCOME TO MEET THEIR BASIC NUTRITIONAL NEEDS. FAO ESTIMATES THAT 49 PERCENT OF ETHIOPIA'S POPULATION IS UNDERNOURISHED; -FOR CHILDREN UNDER 6, ALMOST TWO THIRDS ARE ESTIMATED TO SUFFER FROM STUNTING, AND OVER 10 PERCENT FROM WASTING; -WHILE MANY OF ETHIOPIA'S ECONOMIC PROBLEMS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DISASTROUS ECONOMIC LEGACY OF THE DERGUE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z PERIOD (1974-1991),THESE PROBLEMS WERE WITHOUT DOUBT EXACERBATED BY THE ETHIOPIA-ERITREA 1998-2000 WAR; -ETHIOPIA HAS THE THIRD LARGEST NUMBER OF HIV/AIDS POSITIVE PEOPLE IN THE WORLD - OVER 3 MILLION AFFECTED, 250,000 ARE CHILDREN UNDER-FIVE AND THERE ARE 1 MILLION HIV/AIDS ORPHANS; -THE ADULT LITERACY RATE IS THIRTY-FIVE PERCENT. AN ESTIMATED TWENTY-FOUR PERCENT OF THE POPULATION HAS ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER. -------------- WHERE WE ARE AT PRESENT -------------- ¶7. DURING 1999/2000, ETHIOPIA EXPERIENCED PROBABLY THE WORST DROUGHT SINCE 1983/84. TRADITIONAL COPING MECHANISMS WERE ERODED; THE LOSS OF FARM ANIMALS IN PARTICULAR WAS VERY HIGH, AND VIRTUALLY ENSURED THAT RECOVERY FROM THE 1999-2000 DROUGHT WOULD BE LONG AND DIFFICULT. MOREOVER, A RECENT STUDY OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA HAS REVEALED THAT SERIOUS DROUGHTS OCCURRED ON AVERAGE ONCE EVERY FIVE YEARS. DURING THE PAST DECADE, HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF WIDESPREAD DROUGHTS HAS ACCELERATED TO ONCE EVERY 2-3 YEARS. GIVEN POOR HARVESTS THROUGHOUT 2002 IN THE DROUGHT-PRONE PARTS OF ETHIOPIA, DPPC HAS INCREASED ITS BENEFICIARY NUMBERS TO 7 MILLION FOR SEPTEMBER AND THIS NUMBER COULD POSSIBLY ESCALATE TO A PEAK UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ROME 04735 02 OF 03 301506Z OF 10 TO 14 MILLION IN THE "HUNGRY SEASON" BETWEEN FEBRUARY AND JUNE, 2003. -------------- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -------------- ¶8. GFDRE AND DONORS WOULD BE BETTER SERVED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ETHIOPIA'S STRUCTURAL FOOD DEFICIT (APPROXIMATELY 700,000 MTS) AND FOCUS ON IMPROVING THE NATIONAL CAPACITY TO IMPORT FOOD ON TIME TO WHERE IT IS NEEDED. GFDRE NEEDS TO BE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO DEVELOP A TRANSITIONAL FRAMEWORK TO MEET THE NEEDS OF ITS FOUR TO FIVE MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD INSECURE, INVOLVING BOTH ASSET BUILDING AND ACCUMULATION FOR THIS TARGET POPULATION. ¶9. RATHER THAN WAITING FOR THE ANNUAL FAO/WFP CROP ASSESSMENT MISSION REPORT TO BE ISSUED IN JANUARY 2003, THERE SHOULD BE AN IMMEDIATE PLEDGING AND DISPATCH OF SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES OF FOOD AID. USAID'S DECISION TO COMMIT AN ADDITIONAL 100,000 TONS OF TITLE II FOOD AID (ANNOUNCED ON SEPTEMBER 26) IS INDEED TIMELY. FOOD AID FROM ALL DONORS SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR BOTH FOR IMMEDIATE DISTRIBUTION AND TO PROTECT THE PIPELINE AT THE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO8802 PAGE 01 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z ACTION IO-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AF-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 USNW-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 E-00 UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 M-00 DCP-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OES-01 OIC-02 OMB-01 IRM-00 STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PRM-00 SAS-00 /006W -------------- EF0B83 301527Z /38 P 301436Z SEP 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6073 USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 2304 INFO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY ASMARA AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OTTAWA USEU BRUSSELS 2831 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION GENEVA UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 004735 SIPDIS FROM U.S. MISSION IN ROME AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA FOR CHARGE D'AFFAIRES HULL AND USAID UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z ACTING DIRECTOR PARK USDA/FAS NAIROBI FOR FRED KESSEL STATE FOR ACTING A/S IO, A/S PRM DEWEY, AF AND EA USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN AND RTILLSWORTH USAID FOR A/USAID NATSIOS, AA/DCHA WINTER AND D/FFP LANDIS NSC FOR JDWORKEN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR AORC PREF EAGR EU WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN EU EAID WFP UN SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN DROUGHT - SUSTANTIVE FOOD DEFICITS FORSEEN START OF 2003. ¶10. DONORS SHOULD ENSURE THAT IMPORT TAXES ON GRAINS INCLUDING WHEAT FLOUR ARE RATCHETED DOWN TO MINIMAL LEVELS OR ZERO. THE EXAMPLE OF BANGLADESH IN THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH OF THE 1998 "WORST FLOOD OF THE CENTURY" - IN ENCOURAGING LARGE-SCALE GRAIN IMPORTS BY THE PRIVATE SECTOR (THROUGH REDUCTION OF IMPORT SURCHARGES AND NON-INTERFERENCE WITH PRIVATE SECTOR TRADE) - WENT A LONG WAY IN STABILIZING FOOD GRAIN MARKETS AND GREATLY AIDED THAT COUNTRY'S FOOD SECURITY AT A CRITICAL TIME. ¶11. A POLICY DIALOGUE NEEDS TO ENSUE WITH THE GFDRE ON POSSIBLE CEREAL PRICE STABILIZATION INTERVENTIONS AND POLICIES. EMBASSY/USAID SHOULD REVIEW POSSIBLE TITLE I, FOOD FOR PROGRESS, AND GSM OPTIONS WITH USDA/FAS. ¶12. ETHIOPIA NEEDS TO PRIORITIZE EFFORTS WITHIN ITS BOUNDARIES RELATED TO THE MOVEMENT OF FOOD FROM AREAS WITH SURPLUSES TO THOSE WITH SHORTAGES. UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z ¶13. THERE IS A COMPELLING NEED TO ADDRESS MORE DIRECTLY THE PROBLEMS OF UNDER-NUTRITION IN INFANTS AND EXPECTANT MOTHERS. UNLIKE OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS INDIA, ETHIOPIA HAS NO PROGRAM THAT DELIVERS A COMBINATION OF SERVICES (FOOD SUPPLEMENTS, MICRO-NUTRIENTS, HEALTH INPUTS, IMMUNIZATIONS, ETC.) TARGETED TO THE MOST NUTRITIONALLY VULNERABLE GROUPS IN THE POPULATION - INFANTS AND PREGNANT WOMEN. THIS IS AN AREA WFP AND ITS UN AGENCIES PARTNERS MIGHT PROFITABLY EXPLORE. ¶14. THE LONG-TERM VALUE OF EDUCATION, PARTICULARLY FOR GIRLS, TO IMPROVED NUTRITION FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE GLOBAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION INITIATIVE SHOULD BE SYSTEMATICALLY RATCHETED UP. WFP AND OTHER UN AGENCIES SHOULD AGGRESSIVELY PURSUE ADDITIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AND COMPLEMENTARY FUNDING TO COVER NON-FOOD COSTS AND ENSURE HIGH-QUALITY EDUCATION. ¶15. THE RAPID SPREAD OF HIV/AIDS IS DANGEROUSLY UNDERMINING DEVELOPMENTAL GAINS THROUGHOUT ETHIOPIA, INCREASINGLY CAUSING SEVERE LABOR AND ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS THAT DIRECTLY DISRUPT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. BOTH WFP AND THE UN NEED TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND EXPAND ACTIVITIES TO STRENGTHEN HIV/AIDS INFORMATION CAMPAIGNS, CARE FOR ORPHANS, AND TRAINING FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS TO BETTER MANAGE THE EPIDEMIC. ¶16. SPECIAL EFFORTS (INCLUDING ENGAGING THE INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/GENEVA) NEED TO BE TAKEN TO REVITALIZE THE ETHIOPIAN RED CROSS WHICH PRESENTLY PLAYS A UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 ROME 04735 03 OF 03 301506Z MARGINAL ROLE IN EMERGENCY PROGRAM RESPONSE. ¶17. WFP AND THE UN AGENCIES SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EMERGENCY FOOD DELIVERIES (WHERE LARGE NUMBERS OF BENEFICIARIES OFTEN WAIT FOR HOURS TO RECEIVE THEIR RATION) TO IMPART MOTHER-CHILD CARE HEALTH TRAINING AND NUTRITION EDUCATION MESSAGES, HIV/AIDS AWARENESS, ETC. ¶18. FINALLY, WFP AND ITS NON-GOVERNMENTAL PARTNERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY INITIATE SUPPLEMENTARY AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING IN THE WORST AFFECTED AREAS OF WEST HARARGE. #HALL UNCLASSIFIED > 2002ROME04735 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED