WINNING ITALY OVER ON IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 004485

SIPDIS

NSC FOR KURT VOLKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2012
TAGS: PREL MARR MARR ITALY'>IT NATO ITPREL NATO IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: WINNING ITALY OVER ON IRAQ
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REF: USNATO 0989

CLASSIFIED BY: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EMIL SKODON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D
)


1. (C) SUMMARY. ITALY IS MOVING CLOSER TO WHERE WE WANT OUR
NATO ALLIES TO BE ON IRAQ. PM BERLUSCONI, AND INCREASINGLY
OTHER TOP GOVERNMENT LEADERS, UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC
IMPORTANCE OF NEUTRALIZING IRAQ'S WMD CAPABILITIES. THEY
HOPE WAR CAN BE AVOIDED. HOWEVER, THROUGH PUBLIC REMARKS
AND A FORWARD-LEANING COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY, THE GOI IS
BEGINNING TO PREPARE THE ITALIAN PEOPLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT MILITARY ACTION AGAINST BAGHDAD WILL BE TAKEN.
BERLUSCONI AND DEPUTY PM FINI CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE USE
OF FORCE TO DEFANG IRAQ, PREFERABLY UNDER UN COVER, IS
WARRANTED IF OTHER APPROACHES FAIL. ACCELERATED HIGH-LEVEL
INTELLIGENCE SHARING, CLOSE CONSULTATIONS, AND FOCUSED PUBLIC
OUTREACH ARE KEY TO ENSURING THE GOI KEEPS ITS MESSAGE ON
TRACK. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) ITALY WILL BE A HELPFUL PARTNER WHEN PRESIDENT BUSH
VISITS EUROPE IN NOVEMBER AND AT THE NATO DEFENSE MINISTERIAL
LATER THIS MONTH. TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, ESPECIALLY PRIME
MINISTER BERLUSCONI, ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON
IRAQ AND WILL NOT SHY AWAY FROM DISCUSSING IT BENEFICIALLY IN
A NATO CONTEXT. EVEN IN THIS FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER,
THE GAME IS NOT OVER.


3. (C) ON THE PUBLIC AFFAIRS FRONT, BERLUSCONI AND HIS
COMMUNICATIONS TEAM ARE DOING A COMMENDABLE JOB OF PREPARING
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THE ITALIAN PEOPLE FOR POSSIBLE MILITARY ACTION.
BERLUSCONI'S LATEST FORAY--A SIGNED FRONT-PAGE ARTICLE IN AN
ITALIAN DAILY SEPTEMBER 11--CONDEMNED IRAQ'S SYSTEMATIC
VIOLATION OF ITS UN OBLIGATIONS, ARGUED THAT THE USE OF FORCE
TO AFFECT CHANGE SHOULD NOT BE EXCLUDED, AND AVERRED THAT
THERE ARE MOMENTS IN HISTORY WHICH CALL FOR PREVENTIVE
ACTION. "THINGS EITHER CHANGE," HE SAID, "OR IT WILL BE
NECESSARY TO ACT IN A CONCRETE MANNER, WITH EVERY POSSIBLE
DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL VEHICLE, AND WITHOUT EXCLUDING THE
MILITARY OPTION."


4. (C) LATER, COMMENTING PUBLICLY ON THE PRESIDENT'S UN
SPEECH, BERLUSCONI SAID HE WAS SURE THE SECURITY COUNCIL
WOULD NOT HESITATE TO IMPOSE INSPECTIONS ON IRAQ NOR TO
AUTHORIZE THE USE OF MILITARY FORCE IN THE EVENT SADDAM
CONTINUES TO FLOUT ITS RESOLUTIONS. ASKED DIRECTLY WHETHER
ITALY WOULD TAKE PART IF THERE WAS AN ATTACK, BERLUSCONI
HEDGED: "LET'S WAIT AND SEE," HE SAID. "AT THE RIGHT TIME
ITALY, ALONG WITH ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS, WILL TAKE THE RIGHT
DECISION." OTHER KEY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS--WHO HAVE THEIR
OWN POLITICAL ORCHARDS TO TEND--ARE BEGINNING TO ADOPT MORE
FORWARD-LEANING POSITIONS. DEPUTY PM FINI, LEADER OF THE
SECOND LARGEST PARTY IN THE GOVERNING COALITION, SAID IN
PUBLIC REMARKS AT THE AMBASSADOR'S RESIDENCE ON SEPTEMBER 11
THAT, "IN THE STRUGGLE AGAINST TERRORISM THE USE OF MILITARY
FORCE IS SOMETIMES NECESSARY."


5. (C) PRESIDENT CIAMPI, A KEY OPINION MAKER AND INDEPENDENT
FROM BERLUSCONI'S GOVERNMENT, HAS HEWED TO A MORE CIRCUMSPECT
PUBLIC POSITION, BUT NEVERTHELESS UNDERSCORED ITALY'S STRONG
SOLIDARITY WITH THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST
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TERRORISM IN REMARKS COMMEMORATING SEPTEMBER 11. DURING AN
OFFICE CALL BY THE AMBASSADOR AND DCM PRIOR TO PUBLIC
CEREMONIES ON SEPTEMBER 11, CIAMPI SAID IT WAS NECESSARY TO
FIGHT TERROR BUT ALSO TO ERADICATE IT FROM THE "MINDS AND
HEARTS" OF ITS POTENTIAL RECRUITS. HE EXPLAINED THAT
FIGHTING TERRORISM INCLUDED, IN HIS OPINION, ACTING TO
DESTROY WMD, WHILE WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS MEANT ADDRESSING
POLITICAL AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND
ELSEWHERE. WE MAY HEAR MORE OF THIS TWO-TRACK APPROACH IN
COMING WEEKS AS GOI POLITICAL LEADERS WORK TO BUILD PUBLIC
SUPPORT FOR THE POSSIBLE USE OF FORCE AGAINST IRAQ.


6. (C) THE CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION IS SPLIT BETWEEN THOSE
OPPOSED TO WAR AT ALL COSTS, AND OTHERS--NOTABLY LEADERS OF
THE LARGEST LEFT-WING PARTY--WHO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT, IF
AUTHORIZED BY THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL, IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS AN EXTREME MEASURE. THE CENTER-LEFT DOES NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT WEIGHT IN THE PARLIAMENT TO HOLD THE GOVERNMENT
HOSTAGE ON KEY FOREIGN POLICY MATTERS. HOWEVER, ON A MATTER
OF SUCH GRAVITY, BERLUSCONI WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RUN ROUGHSHOD
OVER THE OPPOSITION, NOR IS HE SO INCLINED. ASSISTING THE
GOI BUILD BROAD POLITICAL BACKING FOR OUR IRAQ POLICY WILL
HELP ENSURE THAT ITALIAN SUPPORT IS DELIVERED AND CAN BE
SUSTAINED.

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 SRPP-00
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VCE-00 MOFM-05 MOF-01 AC-01 NEA-00 NRRC-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 R-00
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TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5844
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
AMCONSUL FLORENCE
AMCONSUL MILAN
AMCONSUL NAPLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 004485

SIPDIS

NSC FOR KURT VOLKER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2012
TAGS: PREL MARR MARR IT NATO ITPREL NATO IRAQI FREEDOM
SUBJECT: WINNING ITALY OVER ON IRAQ

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 ROME 04485 02 OF 02 150719Z

7. (C) TO THAT END, PURSUING THE TACTICS RECOMMENDED IN
REFTEL, SOME OF WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY DEPLOYED IN ITALY, IS
ESSENTIAL. FOLLOWING BERLUSCONI'S IN-DEPTH INTELLIGENCE
BRIEFING ON IRANIAN AND IRAQI WMD PROGRAMS SEPTEMBER 13 IN
NEW YORK, AND HIS MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT AT CAMP DAVID ON
SEPTEMBER 14, HE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE WILLING TO LISTEN TO
ARGUMENTS ON THE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE ON IRAQ, ESPECIALLY
UNDER US SECURITY COUNCIL SANCTION. NEVERTHELESS, WE NEED TO
AND CAN DO MORE. CONTINUED CLOSE CONSULTATIONS ARE
ESSENTIAL. WE ALSO WOULD APPRECIATE AN EVEN RICHER
INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE WITH SENIOR GOI OFFICIALS TO GENERATE
DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE RISKS POSED BY WMD TO ITALIAN
AND, MORE BROADLY, EUROPEAN SECURITY. RECENT POLLING DATA ON
PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION IS CONFLICTING. ONE
SURVEY PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 12 SHOWED 59 PERCENT AGREED A
"PREVENTIVE INTERVENTION IN IRAQ" WOULD BE JUSTIFIED, WHILE
ANOTHER THE SAME DAY SAID 66 PERCENT OPPOSED MILITARY ACTION.
TWO THINGS, HOWEVER, ARE CLEAR: PUBLIC OPINION IS IN FLUX
AND A WELL-TARGETED, AND, WE DARE SAY, RELENTLESS PA EFFORT
CAN AFFECT IT.


8. (C) COMMENT. THE GOI WILL DO ITS UTMOST TO ENSURE THAT
THE EU ARRIVES AT A UNIFIED POSITION ON IRAQ. IN THE EVENT
THAT PROVES IMPOSSIBLE, OUR ACE IS THAT BERLUSCONI
UNDERSTANDS--AND SHOULD APPRECIATE EVEN MORE AFTER HIS
MEETINGS IN THE UNITED STATES--THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF
DEFANGING BAGHDAD. MOREOVER, BERLUSCONI HAS DEMONSTRATED A
CAPACITY FOR LEADING PUBLIC OPINION ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES
HE KNOWS ARE MAKE OR BREAK FOR US. HE AND OTHER KEY GOI
LEADERS, HOWEVER, REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE DESTABILIZING
POTENTIAL OF WAR IN THE NEAR EAST. THEIR PREFERENCE IS TO
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AVOID IT. REASSURING THEM THAT WE HAVE THOUGHT THROUGH THE
IMPLICATIONS AND ARE COMMITTED TO POST-CONFLICT
RECONSTRUCTION--AND PROVIDING RELEVANT POINTS FOR THE GOI TO
USE IN ITS PUBLIC RELATIONS EFFORTS--WILL BRING PAYOFFS. END
COMMENT.
SKODON

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2002ROME04485 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL