IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003880 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012 TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR XF IZ MOPS MARR XF IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM SUBJECT: IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT FOR U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION REF: A) ROME 3760 B) ROME 3795 CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: ITALIAN DEFENSE MINISTER MARTINO CAUSED A STIR AMONG ITALIAN POLITICAL LEADERS AND COMMENTATORS BY SUGGESTING THAT ITALY WOULD "AUTOMATICALLY" SUPPORT U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAQ. HE ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT ITALY WOULD ONLY PARTICIPATE IN THE MILITARY EFFORT IF THERE IS "PROVEN EVIDENCE" OF IRAQ'S CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD). OPPOSITION FORCES REACTED WITH OUTRAGE, WHILE OTHER GOI OFFICIALS HASTENED TO TONE DOWN MARTINO'S MESSAGE. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) IN AN INTERVIEW PUBLISHED IN THE AUGUST 8 ISSUE OF THE CENTRIST NEWS WEEKLY "PANORAMA," ITALIAN MOD ANTONIO MARTINO SAID THAT, AT A RECENT NATO DEFENSE MINISTERS MEETING IN BRUSSELS, HE AND HIS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES DISCUSSED WITH SECRETARY RUMSFELD THE PROBABLE EXISTENCE OF WMD PLANTS IN SIPDIS IRAQ. MARTINO SAID THAT IT WOULD BE "IRRESPONSIBLE" NOT TO TAKE ACTION IF THERE IS POSITIVE EVIDENCE THAT SUCH PRODUCTION FACILITIES EXIST. ¶3. (SBU) CAUTIOUS AS USUAL WHEN IT COMES TO COMMITTING ITALIAN MILITARY PARTICIPATION, HOWEVER, MARTINO REMARKED THAT THE "LITMUS TEST" ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ENGAGE IN MILITARY ACTIVITY AGAINST IRAQ IS THE ISSUE OF UN INSPECTORS. IF SADDAM HUSSEIN ALLOWS THE UNCONDITIONAL RETURN OF THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 03880 01 OF 02 071000Z INSPECTORS, HE ARGUED, THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION. IF, INSTEAD, THE IRAQI LEADER CONTINUES TO BLOCK THEIR RETURN, MARTINO INFERRED THAT THIS WOULD BE JUSTIFICATION FOR MILITARY ACTION. ¶4. (U) ACCORDING TO PRESS STATEMENTS, MARTINO BELIEVES THE U.S. IS RIGHT IN NOT WANTING TO WAIT INDEFINITELY BEFORE STRIKING, GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL THREAT FROM IRAQ. STILL, HE DOES NOT BELIEVE U.S. ACTION IS IMMINENT, SINCE WASHINGTON WILL FIRST WANT TO BUILD THE WIDEST POSSIBLE INTERNATIONAL COALITION -- POSSIBLY WIDER THAN DESERT STORM IN 1991, AND INCLUDING THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. MARTINO SAID THAT, IF THE U.S. EVENTUALLY DECIDES TO ATTACK, ITALY, AS A CLOSE U.S. ALLY, WOULD "AUTOMATICALLY" MAKE ITS AIR SPACE AVAILABLE. THE PARTICIPATION OF ITALIAN TROOPS WOULD DEPEND, HOWEVER, "ON THE PROVEN EVIDENCE OF IRAQ'S WAR PLANS." ¶5. (U) RESPONDING TO MARTINO'S STATEMENTS AND RESULTING OPPOSITION CRITICISM, ALFREDO MANTICA, MFA UNDER SECRETARY FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, AND MARGHERITA BONIVER, MFA UNDER SECRETARY FOR ASIA, TOLD THE PRESS THAT MILITARY INTERVENTION SIPDIS BY AN INTERNATIONAL ALLIANCE WOULD REQUIRE A UN RESOLUTION. THEY ALSO SAID ITALY WOULD MAKE ITS DECISION ON WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS, ALTHOUGH BONIVER OPINED THAT ITALY WOULD ULTIMATELY BACK THE U.S. IF ASKED BY PRESIDENT BUSH. ONE RULING COALITION MEMBER IN THE SENATE CAUTIONED THAT ANY DECISION INVOLVING AN ITALIAN MILITARY COMMITMENT MUST GO BEFORE PARLIAMENT. ¶6. (U) THEIR STATEMENTS DID LITTLE TO PACIFY THE OPPOSITION, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 03880 01 OF 02 071000Z WHICH PROTESTED MARTINO'S "DISCONCERTING" STATEMENTS AND "SUBMISSIVE" ATTITUDE TOWARD THE UNITED STATES. OVER 70 LEADERS OF THE LEFT AND CENTER-LEFT SIGNED A PETITION OPPOSING MILITARY INTERVENTION IN IRAQ. MANY COMMENTATORS POINT TO THE DANGERS OF AN ATTACK ON IRAQ ON MIDDLE EAST STABILITY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, WHILE OPPOSITION FORCES ARE CALLING FOR AN END TO THE UN EMBARGO AGAINST IRAQ AND ARE APPEALING TO OTHER LEFTIST FORCES IN EUROPE TO TAKE POLITICAL ACTION TO MAKE CLEAR EUROPE'S OPPOSITION TO AN EXTENSION OF THE CONFLICT. ¶7. (U) SOME IN ITALY SPECULATE THAT THE U.S. REQUEST FOR MORE ITALIAN TROOPS IN OEF IS AN EFFORT TO FREE UP U.S. TROOPS AND THUS A SIGNAL OF U.S. INTENTIONS TO ATTACK IRAQ. ALTHOUGH BONIVER CALLED THIS INTERPRETATION A "CREDIBLE HYPOTHESIS," MARTINO DENIED IT, SAYING THAT ITALIAN SOLDIERS WOULD REPLACE BRITISH, NOT AMERICAN, TROOPS AS PART OF AN ON-GOING SIX-MONTH ROTATION. ¶8. (C) COMMENT. THE GOI UNDER PM BERLUSCONI HAS BEEN A STRONG SUPPORTER OF U.S. MILITARY POLICY. AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, IT IS EQUALLY COMMITTED TO A COMMON EUROPEAN DEFENSE POLICY AND THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO GUARANTEE ACTIVE MILITARY PARTICIPATION IN IRAQ -- IF AND WHEN IT BECOMES NECESSARY -- IN THE ABSENCE OF AN EU CONSENSUS. DESPITE GOI (AND OUR OWN) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3486 PAGE 01 ROME 03880 02 OF 02 071000Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 C-00 DOTE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 MOFM-05 MOF-01 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /013W -------------- D5BBF6 071000Z /38 R 070957Z AUG 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5307 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE AMCONSUL NAPLES AMCONSUL MILAN AMCONSUL FLORENCE USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL USMISSION USUN NEW YORK SECDEF WASHDC JOINT STAFF WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 003880 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012 TAGS: PREL MOPS MARR XF IZ MOPS MARR XF IZ IT IRAQI FREEDOM SUBJECT: IRAQ: MARTINO CAUSES STIR OVER ITALIAN SUPPORT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 03880 02 OF 02 071000Z FOR U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION ASSURANCES TO THE CONTRARY, THE U.S. REQUEST FOR INCREASED ITALIAN TROOP INVOLVEMENT IN OEF HAS FED RAMPANT SPECULATION OF AN IMMINENT ATTACK ON IRAQ. PM BERLUSCONI HAS PLEDGED HIS SUPPORT FOR ANY U.S. DECISION ON IRAQ, BUT STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF CLOSE CONSULTATION AND INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION ON SUCH SENSITIVE ISSUES (REF A). IN THAT MEETING, THE AMBASSADOR ASSURED THE PRIME MINISTER THAT SUCH CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE FORTHCOMING. END COMMENT. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME03880 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL