U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 003855 SIPDIS NSC FOR KVOLKER/WANDRUSYSZYN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012 TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR IT ITPREL ITPREL SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 03855 01 OF 03 061129Z SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS REF: A. A) ROME 3849 ¶B. B) ROME 1723 CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5(B)(D) ¶1. (U) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST. PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPH 5. ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. U/S BOLTON DISCUSSED HIS RECENT MOSCOW VISIT, NON-PROLIFERATION AND ARMS COUNTROL ISSUES, MISSILE DEFENSE, THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM, CHINA AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (REF A) AT AN AUGUST 5 WORKING LUNCH WITH SENIOR ITALIAN MFA AND MOD OFFICIALS. MFA DIRECTOR GENERAL GIANCARLO ARAGONA EMPHASIZED THAT MISSILE DEFENSE AND NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS SHOULD NOT WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE EXISTING BALANCE WITH RUSSIA OR WITH CHINA. HE SAID THAT ITALY IS READY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MD PROGRAM TO THE MAXIMUM OF ITS TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES AND IS LOOKING TO PROCEED WITH COOPERATIVE PROJECTS. HE ALSO CONFIRMED ITALY'S COMMITMENT TO CONTRIBUTE EURO 1 BILLION TO THE 10 10 OVER 10 PLAN AND ASKED FOR USG SUGGESTIONS ON PROJECTS WORTH FUNDING. END SUMMARY. RUSSIA - IRAN -------------- ¶3. (C) ARAGONA, A FORMER AMBASSADOR TO MOSCOW, WAS PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA'S RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S NUCLEAR REACTOR PROGRAM. THE ANNOUNCEMENT, WHICH CAME AS THE USG WAS LOOKING TO BUILD ON THE ENCOURAGING RAPPORT BETWEEN PUTIN AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 03855 01 OF 03 061129Z PRESIDENT BUSH, COULD INSTEAD HAVE A CHILLING EFFECT ON US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, U/S BOLTON STRESSED. IT PUT A DEFINITE PALL OVER PLANNED TALKS ON RUSSIAN NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS, HE SAID, AND CAME AS AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE TO US AND MANY RUSSIAN OFFICIALS ALIKE. PUTIN HIMSELF HAD STATED PREVIOUSLY THAT A NUCLEAR CAPABLE IRAN IS NOT IN RUSSIA'S INTEREST, HE SAID. NOTING THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASE IN IRAN'S CAPABILITY TO IMPROVE ITS COVERT NUCLEAR PROGRAM, U/S BOLTON OUTLINED USG CONCERNS WITH RUSSIA'S SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S BUSHEHR NUCLEAR REACTOR: 1) A FUNCTIONING REACTOR -- EVEN ONE ALLEGEDLY FOR CIVIL POWER PURPOSES -- OFFERS GREATER TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES AND EXPERIENCE THAN A RESEARCH REACTOR, 2) RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS AND TECHNICIANS ENTERING IRAN TO ASSIST WITH BUSHEHR PROVIDE IDEAL COVER FOR OTHERS ENTERING FOR COVERT PURPOSES, AND 3) FUEL RODS FROM BUSHEHR COULD BE USED BY IRAN FOR ILLEGITIMATE PURPOSES UNLESS A STRICT CONTROL SYSTEM IS ESTABLISHED AND ENFORCED. RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE TO BUILD FIVE NEW REACTORS WILL ONLY MAGNIFY THESE CONCERNS, U/S BOLTON SAID. AS IT IS, THE USG CONSENSUS IS THAT IRAN IS FIVE TO EIGHT YEARS AWAY FROM HAVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, HE WARNED. ¶4. (C) MFA COORDINATOR FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS CARLO TREZZA ASKED IF ENHANCED SAFEGUARDS WOULD ADDRESS USG CONCERNS AND STILL ALLOW IRAN TO PROCEED WITH A REACTOR TO MEET ITS ELECTRICITY NEEDS. U/S BOLTON AGREED THAT ENHANCED SAFEGUARDS ARE A PREREQUISITE, BUT NOTED THAT BUSHEHR SHOULD NOT BE VIEWED IN ISOLATION. HE URGED THE ITALIANS TO CONSIDER WHY AN OIL-RICH STATE SUCH AS IRAN NEEDS TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR POWER CAPABILITY OR MINE URANIUM. THE ITALIANS SUGGESTED THAT BETTER INTEL SHARING AMONG ALLIES, BILATERALLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 03855 01 OF 03 061129Z AND MULTILATERALLY, WOULD BE BE VERY USEFUL IN THIS AREA AND IN GENERAL. WE MAY DIFFER ON HOW TO RESPOND, ARAGONA SAID, BUT AT LEAST WE WOULD BE WORKING WITH THE SAME SET OF FACTS. ¶5. (C) ACTION REQUEST. PRIME MINISTER BERLUSCONI CURRENTLY IS HOSTING PUTIN'S DAUGHTERS AT HIS SARDEGNA RESIDENCE, AND PUTIN IS EXPECTED TO JOIN THEM SOON. WE HAVE ASKED BERLUSCONI ON OTHER OCCASIONS (REF B) TO CONVEY TO PUTIN CONCERNS ABOUT RUSSIAN COOPERATION AND EXPORTS TO ASSIST IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, MOST RECENTLY IN APRIL. AMBASSADOR SEMBLER WILL BE SPEAKING WITH BERLUSCONI'S SENIOR DIPLOMATIC ADVISOR, GIANNI CASTELLANETA, ON AUGUST 7, BEFORE CASTELLANETA DEPARTS FOR THE AUGUST HOLIDAY. AMBASSADOR INTENDS TO DEPLOY THE FOLLOWING TALKING POINTS UNLESS OTHERWISE INSTRUCTED: - AS YOU TOLD US AFTER HIS VISIT TO RUSSIA IN APRIL, THE PRIME MINISTER SHARES OUR CONCERN REGARDING WMD PROLIFERATION. - AT THAT TIME, HE STRESSED TO PRESIDENT PUTIN THAT THE GOI WAS WORRIED THAT THE TRANSFER OF SENSITIVE TECHNOLOGIES FROM RUSSIA TO IRAN WAS AIDING IRAN'S ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0027 PAGE 01 ROME 03855 02 OF 03 061129Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DOEE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 OIGO-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OES-01 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 DTC-00 EPAE-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W -------------- D52DC8 061131Z /38 O 061126Z AUG 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5284 INFO NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 003855 SIPDIS NSC FOR KVOLKER/WANDRUSYSZYN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 03855 02 OF 03 061129Z TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR IT ITPREL ITPREL SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS - HE ALSO TOLD PUTIN THAT THE GOI HAD INFORMATION THAT IRAN HAD AN ACTIVE PROGRAM TO DEVELOP BOTH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND BALLISTIC MISSILES. - AT THAT MEETING, PRESIDENT PUTIN DISMISSED THESE CONCERNS, CLAIMING SAID THAT THERE WERE STRICT CONTROLS ON ALL DUAL-USE AND NON-CONVENTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES. OUR INTELLIGENCE TELLS US OTHERWISE. - WE FIND THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT OF INCREASED RUSSIAN SALES OF EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TO ASSIST IRAN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM DISTURBING. - AS YOU KNOW, STRICT CONTROL OF THE BUSHEHR FUEL CYCLE WAS A SUBJECT OF DETAILED DISCUSSION BETWEEN PRESIDENTS BUSH AND PUTIN IN KANANASKIS. - THIS DEVELOPMENT THREATENS THE PROMISING NEW RAPPORT THAT HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA, AND BETWEEN PRESIDENTS BUSH AND PUTIN IN PARTICULAR. RUSSIA'S PROPOSED INCREASED ASSISTANCE TO IRAN COULD WELL DERAIL THE PROGRESS MADE TOWARDS A COOPERATIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE U.S.-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP. - WE HAVE CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT IRAN HAS SOUGHT TO USE THE COVER OF THE BUSHEHR POWER REACTOR PROJECT TO GAIN ACCESS TO EQUIPMENT, TECHNOLOGY AND EXPERTISE IN THE EXTENSIVE RUSSIAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 03855 02 OF 03 061129Z NUCLEAR INDUSTRY. - WHEN HE NEXT MEETS WITH PUTIN, WE WOULD APPRECIATE IT IF THE PM COULD ONCE AGAIN EXPRESS IN THE STRONGEST TERMS OUR SHARED FEAR THAT IRAN HAS THE CAPABILITY OF USING THE TECHNOLOGY RUSSIA PLANS TO SELL TO IRAN TO ADVANCE ITS PROGRAM OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. RUSSIA -------------- ¶6. (C) ARAGONA STRESSED PM BERLUSCONI'S COMMITMENT TO BUILDING A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA, BILATERALLY AND MULTILATERALLY. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE NERVOUS ABOUT IMPROVED US MILITARY CAPABILITIES BECAUSE THEIR OWN CAPABILITIES ARE DECLINING RAPIDLY, BUT ARE UNCLEAR HOW TO PROCEED. WHILE THE US STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA IS A BILATERAL CONCERN, ARAGONA WARNED THAT A SEVERE IMBALANCE BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND US CAPABILITIES, OR UNCERTAINTY ON RUSSIA'S PART, COULD IMPACT THE OVERALL SECURITY SITUATION. U/S BOLTON RESPONDED THAT COOPERATION ON MD WITHIN NATO AND THE NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL SHOULD REASSURE RUSSIA, AND SHOULD ENCOURAGE RUSSIA TO MOVE TOWARD GREATER COOPERATION WITH THE WEST. ¶7. (C) U/S BOLTON UNDERLINED THE INCREASING COMMON GROUND BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA, WHICH THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT ON IRAN THREATENS TO UPSET. UNDER THE NEW STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK, THE US RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA IS FOCUSED ON STRATEGIC DEFENSIVE ISSUES, STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ISSUES AND NON-PROLIFERATION, HE EXPLAINED. THE TERMINATION OF THE ABM TREATY MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO SHARE SOME MISSILE TECHNOLOGY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 03855 02 OF 03 061129Z WITH ALLIES AND RUSSIA, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF US-RUSSIA COOPERATION ON MISSILE DEFENSE. TO ASSUAGE RUSSIAN CONCERNS ABOUT MD, U/S BOLTON SAID THE US IS PROVIDING GREATER TRANSPARENCY ON MD RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND IS LOOKING FOR WAYS TO WORK WITH RUSSIA AS THE PROGRAM DEVELOPS. LAST WEEK, US OFFICIALS SHARED WITH RUSSIAN COUNTERPARTS MEASURES REQUIRED TO CEASE COOPERATION ON BALLISTIC MISSILES AND BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND ADVANCED CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS SALES TO IRAN, IN PART TO PERSUADE RUSSIA TO END SUCH COOPERATION, U/S BOLTON SAID. DISCUSSIONS WITH THE RUSSIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO RESUME IN SEPTEMBER. MISSILE DEFENSE -------------- ¶8. (C) ARAGONA AND DEPUTY NATIONAL ARMAMENTS DIRECTOR GENERAL FRATICELLI EMPHASIZED ITALY'S INTEREST IN PARTICIPATING IN ALL PHASES OF MISSILE DEVELOPMENT. BERLUSCONI WAS AMONG THE FIRST TO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT'S MD PROGRAM, AND THE GOI WANTS TO BE FULLY INVOLVED AT ALL STAGES, ARAGONA TOLD U/S BOLTON. FRATICELLI ADDED THAT ITALY IS ALREADY PART OF THE MISSILE DEFENSE EFFORT AS A PARTNER WITH THE US AND GERMANY IN MEADS. US DELEGATIONS VISITING ITALY AND NATO TO DISCUSS MD HAVE BEEN USEFUL, FRATICELLI SAID, BUT FURTHER DETAILS ARE NEEDED ON FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS BEFORE ITALY CAN DETERMINE HOW BEST TO CONTRIBUTE. ARAGONA WAS QUICK TO COUNTER THAT ITALY NEEDS TO ACT AS WELL AS TO DISCUSS IF IT WANTS TO BE AT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0018 PAGE 01 ROME 03855 03 OF 03 061129Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DOEE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 OIGO-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00 NSAE-00 OES-01 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 DTC-00 EPAE-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W -------------- D52D8A 061130Z /38 O 061126Z AUG 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5285 INFO NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 003855 SIPDIS NSC FOR KVOLKER/WANDRUSYSZYN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012 TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR IT ITPREL ITPREL SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 03855 03 OF 03 061129Z SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS THE TABLE WHEN INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION AGREEMENTS ARE READY FOR SIGNING. U/S BOLTON URGED THE GOI TO CONVEY TO THE USG ITS IDEAS ON HOW ITALY CAN PARTICIPATE, SUBSTANTIVELY AND PROCEDURALLY. ¶9. (C) FRATICELLI RAISED THE POSSIBILITY OF USING THE RUSSIAN S300 SYSTEM AS PART OF AN MD PROGRAM. HE SAID THE RUSSIANS HAVE PUSHED TO HAVE THEIR SYSTEM, WHICH ALREADY EXISTS, USED AS THE FRAMEWORK FOR INCORPORATING OTHER SYSTEMS. THIS WOULD, AT THE VERY LEAST, INVOLVE OVERCOMING RUSSIAN CONCERNS ABOUT THE US ACQUIRING RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY, U/S BOLTON POINTED OUT, BUT IN GENERAL THE US SEES NO LIMITS TO RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION. THE RECENTLY CREATED CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON STRATEGIC STABILITY, CONSISTING OF RUSSIAN AND US FOREIGN AND DEFENSE MINISTERS, WOULD HOLD ITS FIRST MEETING ON SEPTEMBER 20 TO LOOK AT AREAS FOR MD COOPERATION, HE SAID. GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP -------------- ¶10. (C) ARAGONA NOTED GOOD PROGRESS WITH THE RUSSIAN'S ON THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP PLAN. MINISTER TREZZA PLANS TO MEET WITH THE RUSSIAN DIRECTOR OF ARMS CONTROL AFTER THE AUGUST BREAK TO DISCUSS CONCRETE PROJECTS, SUCH AS IN THE CHEMICAL, NUCLEAR AND SUBMARINE AREAS, HE SAID. ARAGONA CONFIRMED THAT THE GOI IS READY TO COMMIT UP TO EURO 1 BILLION TO THE 10 10 OVER 10 PLAN -- BOTH TO FURTHER ARMS CONTROL OBJECTIVES AND TO HELP ITALIAN INDUSTRY. ITALY WOULD WELCOME US SUGGESTIONS ON SOLID PROJECTS WORTHY OF FUNDING, HE ADDED, AS WELL AS WAYS TO JOIN FORCES AND POOL RESOURCES WITH PARTNERS. U/S CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 03855 03 OF 03 061129Z BOLTON POINTED OUT THAT RUSSIAN OFFICIALS FOCUSED ON DEBT RELIEF CAN SOMETIMES FRUSTRATE EFFORTS TO REDUCE RUSSIA'S WMD STOCKPILE; IT WAS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN RUSSIAN ECONOMIC POLICY AND RUSSIAN NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY. A G8 MEETING SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 26-27 TO AGREE ON NEXT STEPS WOULD BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM AND KEEP COMMITMENTS MADE AT KANANASKIS ON TRACK, HE SAID. CHINA -------------- ¶11. (C) FRATICELLI RAISED THE CHINA CARD, NOTING THAT USG CONCERNS AND EXPORT CONTROLS HAD LED TO EXPENSIVE PROBLEMS FOR ITALIAN INDUSTRIES. U/S BOLTON SAID THE USG IS REVIEWING ITS LICENSING PROGRAM IN GENERAL TO MAKE IT MORE EFFECTIVE. WITH REGARD TO CHINA, HE EXPLAINED THAT THE US IS STILL WAITING FOR CHINA TO PROMULGATE AND ENFORCE A SYSTEM OF EXPORT CONTROLS FOR BALLISTIC MISSILES, AS CALLED FOR UNDER A NOVEMBER 2000 AGREEMENT. CHINA SAYS IT AGREES THAT PROLIFERATION IS A PROBLEM AT THE SAME TIME THAT IT IS SELLING SENSITIVE ITEMS TO PAKISTAN, IRAN, IRAQ AND NORTH KOREA. THE MEETING BETWEEN SECRETARY POWELL AND THE CHINESE FM MAY GIVE SOME INSIGHT INTO CHINA'S ACTIONS, U/S BOLTON SAID. HE ASSURED THE ITALIANS THAT THE US IS EAGER TO DISCUSS USG CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA IN MORE DETAIL, EITHER IN ROME OR IN WASHINGTON. ARAGONA AGREED THAT SUCH CONSULTATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR, WITH REPRESENTATIVES FROM MFA, MOD AND OTHER RELEVANT MINISTRIES. BWC --- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 03855 03 OF 03 061129Z ¶12. (C) PROMPTED BY A QUESTION FROM MINISTER ARAGONA, U/S BOLTON EXPLAINED THAT NONCOMPLIANCE WAS THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEHIND THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION NOT TO SUPPORT THE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION PROTOCOL. EVERY AGENCY CONSULTED DURING AN INTERAGENCY REVIEW LAST YEAR HAD CONCLUDED THAT IT WASN'T IN THE US INTEREST TO ADOPT THE PROTOCOL. IN ADDITION, THE NATURE OF BW RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT MADE IT EASY TO FRUSTRATE INSPECTIONS, AND INFORMATION GATHERED DURING INSPECTIONS COULD THEN BE USED TO DEFEAT US DEFENSES, U/S BOLTON NOTED. THE US RESPONSE ALSO REFLECTED CONCERNS EXPRESSED BY US BIOTECH AND PHARMOLOGICAL COMPANIES WORRIED ABOUT VULNERABLE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS. FINALLY, PROVISIONS IN THE PROTOCOL COULD HAVE WEAKENED THE AUSTRALIA GROUP AND OTHER MULTILATERAL EFFORTS TO PREVENT THE EXPORT OF DUAL USE EQUIPMENT. THE USG PRESENTED ALTERNATIVES TO THE PROTOCOL LAST FALL, HE ADDED, MANY OF WHICH HAVE GARNERED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. ¶13. (U) U/S BOLTON HAS CLEARED THIS CABLE. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME03855 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL