U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 003855

SIPDIS

NSC FOR KVOLKER/WANDRUSYSZYN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR ITALY'>IT ITPREL ITPREL
SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH
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SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS

REF: A. A) ROME 3849

B. B) ROME 1723

CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5(B)(D)


1. (U) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST. PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPH 5.


2. (C) SUMMARY. U/S BOLTON DISCUSSED HIS RECENT MOSCOW
VISIT, NON-PROLIFERATION AND ARMS COUNTROL ISSUES, MISSILE
DEFENSE, THE GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM, CHINA AND THE
INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT (REF A) AT AN AUGUST 5 WORKING
LUNCH WITH SENIOR ITALIAN MFA AND MOD OFFICIALS. MFA
DIRECTOR GENERAL GIANCARLO ARAGONA EMPHASIZED THAT MISSILE
DEFENSE AND NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS SHOULD NOT WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE EXISTING BALANCE WITH RUSSIA OR WITH CHINA.
HE SAID THAT ITALY IS READY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MD PROGRAM
TO THE MAXIMUM OF ITS TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES AND IS LOOKING
TO PROCEED WITH COOPERATIVE PROJECTS. HE ALSO CONFIRMED
ITALY'S COMMITMENT TO CONTRIBUTE EURO 1 BILLION TO THE 10 10
OVER 10 PLAN AND ASKED FOR USG SUGGESTIONS ON PROJECTS WORTH
FUNDING. END SUMMARY.

RUSSIA - IRAN
--------------

3. (C) ARAGONA, A FORMER AMBASSADOR TO MOSCOW, WAS
PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA'S RECENT
ANNOUNCEMENT OF ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S NUCLEAR REACTOR
PROGRAM. THE ANNOUNCEMENT, WHICH CAME AS THE USG WAS LOOKING
TO BUILD ON THE ENCOURAGING RAPPORT BETWEEN PUTIN AND
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PRESIDENT BUSH, COULD INSTEAD HAVE A CHILLING EFFECT ON
US-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, U/S BOLTON STRESSED. IT PUT A DEFINITE
PALL OVER PLANNED TALKS ON RUSSIAN NON-PROLIFERATION EFFORTS,
HE SAID, AND CAME AS AN UNPLEASANT SURPRISE TO US AND MANY
RUSSIAN OFFICIALS ALIKE. PUTIN HIMSELF HAD STATED PREVIOUSLY
THAT A NUCLEAR CAPABLE IRAN IS NOT IN RUSSIA'S INTEREST, HE
SAID. NOTING THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASE IN
IRAN'S CAPABILITY TO IMPROVE ITS COVERT NUCLEAR PROGRAM, U/S
BOLTON OUTLINED USG CONCERNS WITH RUSSIA'S SUPPORT FOR IRAN'S
BUSHEHR NUCLEAR REACTOR: 1) A FUNCTIONING REACTOR -- EVEN ONE
ALLEGEDLY FOR CIVIL POWER PURPOSES -- OFFERS GREATER TRAINING
OPPORTUNITIES AND EXPERIENCE THAN A RESEARCH REACTOR, 2)
RUSSIAN SCIENTISTS AND TECHNICIANS ENTERING IRAN TO ASSIST
WITH BUSHEHR PROVIDE IDEAL COVER FOR OTHERS ENTERING FOR
COVERT PURPOSES, AND 3) FUEL RODS FROM BUSHEHR COULD BE USED
BY IRAN FOR ILLEGITIMATE PURPOSES UNLESS A STRICT CONTROL
SYSTEM IS ESTABLISHED AND ENFORCED. RUSSIAN ASSISTANCE TO
BUILD FIVE NEW REACTORS WILL ONLY MAGNIFY THESE CONCERNS, U/S
BOLTON SAID. AS IT IS, THE USG CONSENSUS IS THAT IRAN IS
FIVE TO EIGHT YEARS AWAY FROM HAVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS, HE
WARNED.


4. (C) MFA COORDINATOR FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS
CARLO TREZZA ASKED IF ENHANCED SAFEGUARDS WOULD ADDRESS USG
CONCERNS AND STILL ALLOW IRAN TO PROCEED WITH A REACTOR TO
MEET ITS ELECTRICITY NEEDS. U/S BOLTON AGREED THAT ENHANCED
SAFEGUARDS ARE A PREREQUISITE, BUT NOTED THAT BUSHEHR SHOULD
NOT BE VIEWED IN ISOLATION. HE URGED THE ITALIANS TO
CONSIDER WHY AN OIL-RICH STATE SUCH AS IRAN NEEDS TO DEVELOP
NUCLEAR POWER CAPABILITY OR MINE URANIUM. THE ITALIANS
SUGGESTED THAT BETTER INTEL SHARING AMONG ALLIES, BILATERALLY
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AND MULTILATERALLY, WOULD BE BE VERY USEFUL IN THIS AREA AND
IN GENERAL. WE MAY DIFFER ON HOW TO RESPOND, ARAGONA SAID,
BUT AT LEAST WE WOULD BE WORKING WITH THE SAME SET OF FACTS.


5. (C) ACTION REQUEST. PRIME MINISTER BERLUSCONI CURRENTLY
IS HOSTING PUTIN'S DAUGHTERS AT HIS SARDEGNA RESIDENCE, AND
PUTIN IS EXPECTED TO JOIN THEM SOON. WE HAVE ASKED
BERLUSCONI ON OTHER OCCASIONS (REF B) TO CONVEY TO PUTIN
CONCERNS ABOUT RUSSIAN COOPERATION AND EXPORTS TO ASSIST
IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM, MOST RECENTLY IN APRIL. AMBASSADOR
SEMBLER WILL BE SPEAKING WITH BERLUSCONI'S SENIOR DIPLOMATIC
ADVISOR, GIANNI CASTELLANETA, ON AUGUST 7, BEFORE
CASTELLANETA DEPARTS FOR THE AUGUST HOLIDAY. AMBASSADOR
INTENDS TO DEPLOY THE FOLLOWING TALKING POINTS UNLESS
OTHERWISE INSTRUCTED:

- AS YOU TOLD US AFTER HIS VISIT TO RUSSIA IN APRIL, THE
PRIME MINISTER SHARES OUR CONCERN REGARDING WMD PROLIFERATION.

- AT THAT TIME, HE STRESSED TO PRESIDENT PUTIN THAT THE GOI
WAS WORRIED THAT THE TRANSFER OF SENSITIVE TECHNOLOGIES FROM
RUSSIA TO IRAN WAS AIDING IRAN'S ATTEMPTS TO BUILD NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.

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INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DOEE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 OIGO-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00
NSAE-00 OES-01 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 DTC-00 EPAE-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W
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TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5284
INFO NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 003855

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012
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TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR IT ITPREL ITPREL
SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH
SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS

- HE ALSO TOLD PUTIN THAT THE GOI HAD INFORMATION THAT IRAN
HAD AN ACTIVE PROGRAM TO DEVELOP BOTH NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND
BALLISTIC MISSILES.

- AT THAT MEETING, PRESIDENT PUTIN DISMISSED THESE CONCERNS,
CLAIMING SAID THAT THERE WERE STRICT CONTROLS ON ALL DUAL-USE
AND NON-CONVENTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES. OUR INTELLIGENCE TELLS US
OTHERWISE.

- WE FIND THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT OF INCREASED RUSSIAN SALES
OF EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY TO ASSIST IRAN NUCLEAR POWER
PROGRAM DISTURBING.

- AS YOU KNOW, STRICT CONTROL OF THE BUSHEHR FUEL CYCLE WAS
A SUBJECT OF DETAILED DISCUSSION BETWEEN PRESIDENTS BUSH AND
PUTIN IN KANANASKIS.

- THIS DEVELOPMENT THREATENS THE PROMISING NEW RAPPORT THAT
HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA, AND BETWEEN
PRESIDENTS BUSH AND PUTIN IN PARTICULAR. RUSSIA'S PROPOSED
INCREASED ASSISTANCE TO IRAN COULD WELL DERAIL THE PROGRESS
MADE TOWARDS A COOPERATIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE U.S.-RUSSIAN
STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP.

- WE HAVE CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT IRAN HAS SOUGHT TO USE THE
COVER OF THE BUSHEHR POWER REACTOR PROJECT TO GAIN ACCESS TO
EQUIPMENT, TECHNOLOGY AND EXPERTISE IN THE EXTENSIVE RUSSIAN
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NUCLEAR INDUSTRY.

- WHEN HE NEXT MEETS WITH PUTIN, WE WOULD APPRECIATE IT IF
THE PM COULD ONCE AGAIN EXPRESS IN THE STRONGEST TERMS OUR
SHARED FEAR THAT IRAN HAS THE CAPABILITY OF USING THE
TECHNOLOGY RUSSIA PLANS TO SELL TO IRAN TO ADVANCE ITS
PROGRAM OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.

RUSSIA
--------------

6. (C) ARAGONA STRESSED PM BERLUSCONI'S COMMITMENT TO
BUILDING A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA, BILATERALLY AND
MULTILATERALLY. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE RUSSIANS ARE NERVOUS
ABOUT IMPROVED US MILITARY CAPABILITIES BECAUSE THEIR OWN
CAPABILITIES ARE DECLINING RAPIDLY, BUT ARE UNCLEAR HOW TO
PROCEED. WHILE THE US STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA IS
A BILATERAL CONCERN, ARAGONA WARNED THAT A SEVERE IMBALANCE
BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND US CAPABILITIES, OR UNCERTAINTY ON
RUSSIA'S PART, COULD IMPACT THE OVERALL SECURITY SITUATION.
U/S BOLTON RESPONDED THAT COOPERATION ON MD WITHIN NATO AND
THE NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL SHOULD REASSURE RUSSIA, AND SHOULD
ENCOURAGE RUSSIA TO MOVE TOWARD GREATER COOPERATION WITH THE
WEST.


7. (C) U/S BOLTON UNDERLINED THE INCREASING COMMON GROUND
BETWEEN THE US AND RUSSIA, WHICH THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT ON
IRAN THREATENS TO UPSET. UNDER THE NEW STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK,
THE US RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA IS FOCUSED ON STRATEGIC
DEFENSIVE ISSUES, STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ISSUES AND
NON-PROLIFERATION, HE EXPLAINED. THE TERMINATION OF THE ABM
TREATY MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO SHARE SOME MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
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WITH ALLIES AND RUSSIA, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
US-RUSSIA COOPERATION ON MISSILE DEFENSE. TO ASSUAGE RUSSIAN
CONCERNS ABOUT MD, U/S BOLTON SAID THE US IS PROVIDING
GREATER TRANSPARENCY ON MD RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND IS
LOOKING FOR WAYS TO WORK WITH RUSSIA AS THE PROGRAM DEVELOPS.
LAST WEEK, US OFFICIALS SHARED WITH RUSSIAN COUNTERPARTS
MEASURES REQUIRED TO CEASE COOPERATION ON BALLISTIC MISSILES
AND BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AND ADVANCED
CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS SALES TO IRAN, IN PART TO PERSUADE
RUSSIA TO END SUCH COOPERATION, U/S BOLTON SAID. DISCUSSIONS
WITH THE RUSSIANS ARE SCHEDULED TO RESUME IN SEPTEMBER.

MISSILE DEFENSE
--------------

8. (C) ARAGONA AND DEPUTY NATIONAL ARMAMENTS DIRECTOR GENERAL
FRATICELLI EMPHASIZED ITALY'S INTEREST IN PARTICIPATING IN
ALL PHASES OF MISSILE DEVELOPMENT. BERLUSCONI WAS AMONG THE
FIRST TO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT'S MD PROGRAM, AND THE GOI
WANTS TO BE FULLY INVOLVED AT ALL STAGES, ARAGONA TOLD U/S
BOLTON. FRATICELLI ADDED THAT ITALY IS ALREADY PART OF THE
MISSILE DEFENSE EFFORT AS A PARTNER WITH THE US AND GERMANY
IN MEADS. US DELEGATIONS VISITING ITALY AND NATO TO DISCUSS
MD HAVE BEEN USEFUL, FRATICELLI SAID, BUT FURTHER DETAILS ARE
NEEDED ON FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS BEFORE ITALY CAN DETERMINE
HOW BEST TO CONTRIBUTE. ARAGONA WAS QUICK TO COUNTER THAT
ITALY NEEDS TO ACT AS WELL AS TO DISCUSS IF IT WANTS TO BE AT

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ACTION EUR-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00
DOEE-00 PERC-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 OIGO-00 VC-00
H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NRRC-00
NSAE-00 OES-01 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 DTC-00 EPAE-00 SSD-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00
PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W
-------------- D52D8A 061130Z /38
O 061126Z AUG 02
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5285
INFO NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 003855

SIPDIS

NSC FOR KVOLKER/WANDRUSYSZYN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR PARM MASS MARR IT ITPREL ITPREL
SUBJECT: U/S BOLTON DISCUSSES NON-PROLIFERATION ISSUES WITH
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SENIOR ITALIAN OFFICIALS

THE TABLE WHEN INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION AGREEMENTS ARE READY
FOR SIGNING. U/S BOLTON URGED THE GOI TO CONVEY TO THE USG
ITS IDEAS ON HOW ITALY CAN PARTICIPATE, SUBSTANTIVELY AND
PROCEDURALLY.


9. (C) FRATICELLI RAISED THE POSSIBILITY OF USING THE RUSSIAN
S300 SYSTEM AS PART OF AN MD PROGRAM. HE SAID THE RUSSIANS
HAVE PUSHED TO HAVE THEIR SYSTEM, WHICH ALREADY EXISTS, USED
AS THE FRAMEWORK FOR INCORPORATING OTHER SYSTEMS. THIS
WOULD, AT THE VERY LEAST, INVOLVE OVERCOMING RUSSIAN CONCERNS
ABOUT THE US ACQUIRING RUSSIAN TECHNOLOGY, U/S BOLTON POINTED
OUT, BUT IN GENERAL THE US SEES NO LIMITS TO RUSSIAN
PARTICIPATION. THE RECENTLY CREATED CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON
STRATEGIC STABILITY, CONSISTING OF RUSSIAN AND US FOREIGN AND
DEFENSE MINISTERS, WOULD HOLD ITS FIRST MEETING ON SEPTEMBER
20 TO LOOK AT AREAS FOR MD COOPERATION, HE SAID.

GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP
--------------

10. (C) ARAGONA NOTED GOOD PROGRESS WITH THE RUSSIAN'S ON THE
GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP PLAN. MINISTER TREZZA PLANS TO MEET WITH
THE RUSSIAN DIRECTOR OF ARMS CONTROL AFTER THE AUGUST BREAK
TO DISCUSS CONCRETE PROJECTS, SUCH AS IN THE CHEMICAL,
NUCLEAR AND SUBMARINE AREAS, HE SAID. ARAGONA CONFIRMED THAT
THE GOI IS READY TO COMMIT UP TO EURO 1 BILLION TO THE 10 10
OVER 10 PLAN -- BOTH TO FURTHER ARMS CONTROL OBJECTIVES AND
TO HELP ITALIAN INDUSTRY. ITALY WOULD WELCOME US SUGGESTIONS
ON SOLID PROJECTS WORTHY OF FUNDING, HE ADDED, AS WELL AS
WAYS TO JOIN FORCES AND POOL RESOURCES WITH PARTNERS. U/S
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BOLTON POINTED OUT THAT RUSSIAN OFFICIALS FOCUSED ON DEBT
RELIEF CAN SOMETIMES FRUSTRATE EFFORTS TO REDUCE RUSSIA'S WMD
STOCKPILE; IT WAS A DISCONNECT BETWEEN RUSSIAN ECONOMIC
POLICY AND RUSSIAN NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY. A G8 MEETING
SCHEDULED FOR SEPTEMBER 26-27 TO AGREE ON NEXT STEPS WOULD BE
A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM AND KEEP COMMITMENTS
MADE AT KANANASKIS ON TRACK, HE SAID.

CHINA
--------------

11. (C) FRATICELLI RAISED THE CHINA CARD, NOTING THAT USG
CONCERNS AND EXPORT CONTROLS HAD LED TO EXPENSIVE PROBLEMS
FOR ITALIAN INDUSTRIES. U/S BOLTON SAID THE USG IS REVIEWING
ITS LICENSING PROGRAM IN GENERAL TO MAKE IT MORE EFFECTIVE.
WITH REGARD TO CHINA, HE EXPLAINED THAT THE US IS STILL
WAITING FOR CHINA TO PROMULGATE AND ENFORCE A SYSTEM OF
EXPORT CONTROLS FOR BALLISTIC MISSILES, AS CALLED FOR UNDER A
NOVEMBER 2000 AGREEMENT. CHINA SAYS IT AGREES THAT
PROLIFERATION IS A PROBLEM AT THE SAME TIME THAT IT IS
SELLING SENSITIVE ITEMS TO PAKISTAN, IRAN, IRAQ AND NORTH
KOREA. THE MEETING BETWEEN SECRETARY POWELL AND THE CHINESE
FM MAY GIVE SOME INSIGHT INTO CHINA'S ACTIONS, U/S BOLTON
SAID. HE ASSURED THE ITALIANS THAT THE US IS EAGER TO
DISCUSS USG CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA IN MORE DETAIL, EITHER IN
ROME OR IN WASHINGTON. ARAGONA AGREED THAT SUCH
CONSULTATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR,
WITH REPRESENTATIVES FROM MFA, MOD AND OTHER RELEVANT
MINISTRIES.

BWC
---
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12. (C) PROMPTED BY A QUESTION FROM MINISTER ARAGONA, U/S
BOLTON EXPLAINED THAT NONCOMPLIANCE WAS THE PRIMARY CONCERN
BEHIND THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S DECISION NOT TO SUPPORT THE
BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION PROTOCOL. EVERY AGENCY
CONSULTED DURING AN INTERAGENCY REVIEW LAST YEAR HAD
CONCLUDED THAT IT WASN'T IN THE US INTEREST TO ADOPT THE
PROTOCOL. IN ADDITION, THE NATURE OF BW RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT MADE IT EASY TO FRUSTRATE INSPECTIONS, AND
INFORMATION GATHERED DURING INSPECTIONS COULD THEN BE USED TO
DEFEAT US DEFENSES, U/S BOLTON NOTED. THE US RESPONSE ALSO
REFLECTED CONCERNS EXPRESSED BY US BIOTECH AND PHARMOLOGICAL
COMPANIES WORRIED ABOUT VULNERABLE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
RIGHTS. FINALLY, PROVISIONS IN THE PROTOCOL COULD HAVE
WEAKENED THE AUSTRALIA GROUP AND OTHER MULTILATERAL EFFORTS
TO PREVENT THE EXPORT OF DUAL USE EQUIPMENT. THE USG
PRESENTED ALTERNATIVES TO THE PROTOCOL LAST FALL, HE ADDED,
MANY OF WHICH HAVE GARNERED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT.


13. (U) U/S BOLTON HAS CLEARED THIS CABLE.
SEMBLER

CONFIDENTIAL

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2002ROME03855 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL