ITALY ON "FUTURE OF IRAQ" EXPERT WORKING GROUPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003564

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2012
TAGS: PREL MOPS EAID ECON PHUM IR IZ ITALY'>IT KWAC
SUBJECT: ITALY ON "FUTURE OF IRAQ" EXPERT WORKING GROUPS
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REF: SECSTATE 130333

CLASSIFIED BY: CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING DCM THOMAS COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: THE GOI GENERALLY SUPPORTS OUR "FUTURE OF
IRAQ" WORKING GROUPS PROPOSAL
AND IS ESPECIALLY INTERESTED IN THE AREAS OF PUBLIC HEALTH
AND CULTURAL PRESERVATION.
WHILE ITALY VERY MUCH WANTS A DIFFERENT IRAQI GOVERNMENT IN
POWER, IT IS CONCERNED ABOUT
WHO WILL SUCCEED SADDAM. IN THE VIEW OF THE ITALIANS, EITHER
THE ISLAMISTS GAINING POWER
IN IRAQ OR THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE PERSIAN GULF REGION
WOULD BE AS BAD AS -- OR WORSE THAN --
SADDAM'S CURRENT REGIME. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) POLOFF DELIVERED REF DEMARCHE TO LUIGI MACCOTTA, THE
MFA'S OFFICE
DIRECTOR FOR THE PERSIAN GULF AND ROGUE STATES, AND EMANUELE
FARRUGIA,
DEPUTY OFFICE DIRECTOR AND DESK OFFICER FOR IRAQ. ON THE
PRIORITIES OF THE WORKING
GROUPS, FARRUGIA SUGGESTED THAT THE FOREIGN AND NATIONAL
SECURITY POLICY GROUP
COME FIRST TO ALLOW THE UNCONDITIONAL RETURN OF UN WEAPONS
INSPECTORS. ON
ITALY'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE IRAQI PEOPLE, FARRUGIA EXPLAINED
THAT THE GOI
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FOCUSES -- AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS -- ITS EFFORTS IN IRAQ ON
TWO DOMAINS: PUBLIC HEALTH AND CULTURAL
PRESERVATION. IT IS NOT EASY TO DEAL WITH THE BUREAUCRATIC
IRAQI GOVERNMENT
THAT CONSIDERS ANY NGO PART OF AN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE,
COMMENTED FARRUGIA.
THAT SAID, THE ITALIAN EXPERTS IN IRAQ HAVE DEVELOPED GOOD
CONTACTS IN ORDER TO
FACILITATE THEIR TASKS.


3. (C) AMONG EU COUNTRIES, ITALY HAS BEEN ONE OF IRAQ'S MOST
IMPORTANT TRADING
PARTNERS FOR MANY YEARS. THIS CHANGED AFTER SEPTEMBER 11.
ITALY'S EXPORTS TO
IRAQ FELL FROM 5% TO 1% OF THE OIL FOR FOOD PROGRAM ALLOWANCE
OVER THE PAST
YEAR, EXPLAINED FARRUGIA. THAT WAS THE ECONOMIC PRICE ITALY
PAID FOR ITS POLITICAL DECISION TO REDUCE OFFICIAL CONTACTS
WITH IRAQ, WHICH DID NOT TAKE A CLEAR STAND ON TERRORISM, HE
SAID.


4. (C) FARRUGIA STRESSED THAT A MILITARY ATTACK WOULD NOT BE
ITALY'S FIRST OPTION FOR
DEALING WITH SADDAM, DUE IN PART TO CONCERNS ABOUT THE
STABILITY OF THE REGION.
ABSENT CAREFUL PLANNING, STRESSED FARRUGIA, THERE IS A REAL
POSSIBILITY
FOR THE DESTABILIZATION OF IRAQ AND THE REGION POST-SADDAM.
THE GOI IS "KEEN
ON SUPPORTING SECULAR REGIMES, EVEN IF THEY ARE DICTATORIAL
IN NATURE, OVER
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ISLAMIC REGIMES." THAT IS WHY THE GOI IS SUPPORTING THE
GOVERNMENTS IN TUNISIA
AND ALGERIA. IF THE SECULAR SADDAM REGIME FALLS, ARGUED
FARRUGIA, IRAQ
RUNS THE RISK OF BECOMING A RADICAL SHIITE SOCIETY. HE ADDED
THAT THE IRANIAN
RELIGIOUS CONSERVATIVES RELY HEAVILY ON THE IRAQIS IN EXILE
IN IRAN, WHO TEND
TO BE MOST RADICAL. AN IRAQ SHIITE STATE REPLACING SADDAM'S
REGIME COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER IRAN AND BLOCK THE WAY OF REFORM, STRESSED
FARRUGIA.


5. (C) THE KURDISH ISSUE IS SO IMPORTANT THAT IT OUGHT TO
HAVE ITS OWN WORKING
GROUP, ARGUED FARRUGIA. THE KURDS OUGHT TO ENJOY THEIR
CULTURAL AUTONOMY.
HOWEVER, THE KURDS COULD PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE
STABILIZATION OF A POST-SADDAM
IRAQ. THEY ARE USUALLY SUNNIS AND SECULAR, AND THUS COULD
ENSURE THE
CONTINUITY OF A SECULAR IRAQ POST-SADDAM, STATED FARRUGIA.

SEMBLER

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2002ROME03564 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL