ITALY: REACTION TO THE PRESIDENT'S JUNE 24 SPEECH

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003217 SIPDIS (CORRECTED COPY - PARA NUMBERS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2012 TAGS: PREL KPAL IS US XF IT UN SUBJECT: ITALY: REACTION TO THE PRESIDENT'S JUNE 24 SPEECH ON THE MIDDLE EAST REF: SECSTATE 122320 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 03217 051609Z CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POL MC GARY ROBBINS FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: THE GOI INITIALLY EXPRESSED GENERAL SUPPORT FOR THE PRESIDENT'S JUNE 24 SPEECH ON THE MIDDLE EAST TEMPERED WITH CONCERN OVER ARAFAT'S ROLE. AFTER THE G8 SUMMIT, WHERE PM AND ACTING FM BERLUSCONI HAD A CHANCE TO SPEAK WITH PRESIDENT BUSH AND WAS REPORTEDLY "OVERWHELMED" BY THE EVIDENCE LINKING ARAFAT AND THE PA TO TERRORISM, BERLUSCONI CHANGED HIS STAND ON ARAFAT. HE HAS NOW SUGGESTED THAT ARAFAT STEP DOWN AS LEADER OF THE PA. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) MFA SOURCES EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WITH THE PRESIDENT'S JUNE 24 SPEECH ON THE MIDDLE EAST, SAYING IT REFLECTED US WILLINGNESS TO COMMIT TO REACTIVATING THE PEACE PROCESS IN THE REGION. MFA SOURCES ALSO NOTED THE POINTS OF CONVERGENCE WITH THE EU'S POSITION AT THE EU COUNCIL IN SEVILLE JUNE 21-22: TWO STATES, STRUGGLE AGAINST TERRORISM, AND END OF OCCUPATION. ¶3. (U) MFA SOURCES AGREED THAT IT WAS IMPORTANT AND URGENT TO HOLD ELECTIONS IN THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES. THEY STRESSED HOWEVER THAT ONLY THE PALESTINIANS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO CHOOSE THEIR LEADERSHIP. SPEAKING PUBLICLY ON JUNE 25, ALFREDO MANTICA, THE MFA'S UNDER SECRETARY FOR AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST, SAID "UNDOUBTEDLY, FOR THE AMERICANS TO CHOOSE ARAFAT AS A CONDITION FOR NON-PEACE IS A RISK. THIS WILL CREATE DIFFICULTIES FOR BUSH WITH MANY EUROPEAN GOVERNMENTS WHO HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION. EVEN WE ITALIANS HAVE REITERATED THAT ARAFAT IS THE LEGITIMATE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PALESTINIAN POPULATION AND THAT ONLY THE PALESTINIANS CAN CHOSE THEIR REPRESENTATIVE". CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 03217 051609Z ¶4. (U) BERLUSCONI ECHOED MANTICA'S VIEWS RIGHT BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE G8 SUMMIT IN KANANASKIS. SPEAKING TO JOURNALISTS JUNE 26, HE SAID: "ARAFAT CERTAINLY IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ELECTED LEADER OF THE PALESTINIANS." IN RESPONSE TO A SPECIFIC QUESTION HOWEVER, BERLUSCONI SAID HE WOULD BE ABLE TO SAY WHETHER ARAFAT IS AN OBSTACLE THAT MUST BE REMOVED ONLY AFTER SPEAKING WITH PRESIDENT BUSH. ONE DAY LATER, AFTER THE DINNER WITH PRESIDENT BUSH AND BEING REPORTEDLY OVERWHELMED BY THE INFORMATION LINKING ARAFAT AND THE PA TO TERRORISM, BERLUSCONI INVITED ARAFAT TO STEP ASIDE: "IF I WERE ARAFAT, I WOULD MAKE THE GREAT GESTURE THAT WOULD CONSECRATE HIM TO HISTORY AS A MAN WHO DID EVERYTHING FOR HIS COUNTRY." BERLUSCONI WAS REPORTEDLY THE ONLY EUROPEAN LEADER TO STATE THAT ARAFAT SHOULD STEP DOWN FOR THE GOOD OF THE PALESTINIANS. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: WHY SUCH A METAMORPHOSIS IN BERLUSCONI'S POSITION? IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HE WAS INDEED PERSUADED BY EVIDENCE LINKING ARAFAT TO TERRORISM. IT IS MORE LIKELY, HOWEVER, THAT BERLUSCONI SAW IN THIS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE US WHEN SOME OTHER EU LEADERS, AND SOME KEY OFFICIALS WITHIN HIS OWN MFA, HAVE RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE US POSITION ON ARAFAT. BERLUSCONI, WHO IS STILL ACTING FM, CONTINUES TO SEEK OPPORTUNITIES TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HE IS ONE OF OUR GREATEST SUPPORTERS IN THE EU. END COMMENT. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL