POSSIBLE ITALIAN INDICTMENT OF MONTENEGRIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 002660 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2007 TAGS: IT MW OPRC PGOV MW OPRC PGOV SR SRIT EUN SUBJECT: POSSIBLE ITALIAN INDICTMENT OF MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT REF: BELGRADE 1312 CLASSIFIED BY: POL MIN-COUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, 1.5 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: THE APPARENT INTENTION OF THE INDEPENDENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 02660 01 OF 02 311621Z ANTI-MAFIA PROSECUTOR TO PROCEED WITH AN INVESTIGATION OF PRESIDENT DJUKANOVIC IS A NOT UNEXPECTED RESULT OF A YEARS-LONG PROBE, AND A MASSIVE ONGOING TRIAL, INTO CIGARETTE SMUGGLING ACROSS THE ADRIATIC. IT IS NOT/NOT, HOWEVER, MOTIVATED BY ANY POLITICAL INTENTION ON THE PART OF THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) ITALIAN PRESS HAS REPORTED IN DETAIL ON THE INTENTION OF THE ANTI-MAFIA PUBLIC PROSECUTOR IN BARI, GIUSEPPE SCELSI, TO ENTER MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT DJUKANOVIC ON THE LIST OF PERSONS UNDER INVESTIGATION ON CHARGES OF MAFIA CONSPIRACY FOR THE PURPOSE OF INTERNATIONAL TRAFFICKING IN CONTRABAND CIGARETTES. DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL INDICTMENT, AS REVEALED IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CHIEF ANTI-MAFIA PROSECUTOR PIERLUIGI VIGNA, ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE PREVIOUSLY REVEALED IN ZAGREB'S "NACIONAL" AND OTHER REGIONAL PUBLICATIONS. THEY INCLUDE: THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE ITALIAN CRIME SYNDICATES IN THE REGIONS OF NAPLES (CAMORRA) AND PUGLIA (SACRA CORONA UNITA); PAYMENT TO DJUKANOVIC BY THE ITALIAN CRIME SYNDICATES OF UP TO THREE MILLION USD A MONTH; AND LAUNDERING PROCEEDS THROUGH THE CYPRIOT-BASED COMPANY DULWICH. LEADING TURIN NEWSPAPER "LA STAMPA" REPORTS THAT SCELSI IS ALSO HUNTING DOWN DJUKANOVIC'S ASSETS, ISSUING LETTERS ROGATORY SEEKING INFORMATION ON DJUKANOVIC'S ACCOUNTS TO AUTHORITIES IN CYPRUS (COMMENT: GOOD LUCK!),SWITZERLAND AND OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. ¶3. (U) ITALIAN PROSECUTORS ARE OBLIGATED BY LAW TO INVESTIGATE ANY ALLEGATION OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY THAT THEY RECEIVE. NORMALLY, A PROSECUTOR WOULD NOT RELEASE THE KIND OF DETAILS THAT SCELSI HAS UNTIL THE INVESTIGATION HAD TURNED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 02660 01 OF 02 311621Z UP SIGNIFICANT CORROBORATING DETAIL OF THE ALLEGATION. THE BARI PROSECUTOR HAS BEEN PURSUING LEGAL ACTION AGAINST CIGARETTE SMUGGLERS SINCE AT LEAST 1999, FOCUSING ON ITALIAN CRIME FIGURES AND MULTINATIONAL TOBACCO COMPANIES EVEN MORE THAN ON MONTENEGRINS. TWENTY-EIGHT PEOPLE HAVE SO FAR RECEIVED JAIL SENTENCES, ACCORDING TO THE PRESS. ANOTHER 80 SUSPECTS, THE MAJORITY OF THEM ITALIAN, ARE CURRENTLY ON TRIAL IN BARI. IN ADDITION, THE PROSECUTOR'S TRAIL HAS PROBABLY BEEN AIDED BY ARRESTS IN THE LAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS OF LEADING ITALIAN CRIMINALS INVOLVED IN TOBACCO SMUGGLING. ¶4. (C) THERE ARE CONFLICTING REPORTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SCELSI HAS RECEIVED AN OPINION FROM THE ITALIAN MFA ON DJUKANOVIC ENJOYING IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION. A SOURCE IN SCELSI'S OFFICE SAID HE HAD TAKEN THIS STEP BEFORE GOING PUBLIC, BUT THE MFA HAS ISSUED A STRONG DENIAL THAT IT HAD BEEN CONSULTED OR GIVEN AN OPINION. EMBASSY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO REACH AN AUTHORITATIVE OFFICIAL OF THE MFA WHO COULD CONFIRM OR DENY, BUT WE WILL KEEP TRYING. ¶5. (C) LJUBISA PEROVIC, THE GOM'S REPRESENTATIVE IN ROME, HAS BEEN BESIEGED BY ITALIAN, SERBIAN AND MONTENEGRIN JOURNALISTS. HE TOLD POLMC MAY 30 THAT HE WAS FRUSTRATED BY HIS INABILITY TO GET ANY CONCRETE INFORMATION FROM EITHER THE MFA OR SCELSI'S OFFICE. (PEROVIC, WHO WAS YUGOSLAV CONSUL-GENERAL IN BARI FOR FIVE YEARS BEFORE OPENING MONTENEGRO'S OFFICE IN ROME, DESCRIBED SCELSI AS A "CLOSE FRIEND AND ADVERSARY.") BY HIS INFORMATION, THE KEY EVIDENCE AGAINST DJUKANOVIC HAD COME FROM A "PENTITO" (TERM USED FOR MAFIA SMALL-FRY WHO TESTIFY AGAINST THEIR BOSSES),AN ITALIAN WHO THE GOM HAD EXTRADITED FROM MONTENEGRO AT GOI REQUEST. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 02660 01 OF 02 311621Z HE THOUGHT THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL WASN'T ANYONE WHO WAS ACTUALLY PERSONALLY KNOWN TO DJUKANOVIC, BUT CONCEDED IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT THE PROSECUTOR HAD OTHER EVIDENCE AS WELL. ¶6. (C) PEROVIC PROBED FOR ANY INDICATION OF THE MOTIVES FOR ANNOUNCING THE INVESTIGATION NOW, JUXTAPOSING IT SUCCESSIVELY WITH: THE ITALIAN PARLIAMENT'S DECISION TO FORM A SPECIAL COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE FORMER FM DINI'S ROLE IN THE SALE OF SERBIA TELEKOM IN 1997; THE RECENT VISIT OF SERBIAN PM DJINDJIC TO ROME; DJUKANOVIC'S SUCCESS IN LOCAL ELECTIONS; AND THIS WEEK'S VISIT TO PODGORICA OF DEPUTY MINISTER OF FOREIGN TRADE ADOLFO URSO, THE HIGHEST LEVEL GOI VISITOR IN SOME MONTHS. (JUST BEFORE THE NEW STORY BROKE, BOTH ITALIAN AND MONTENEGRIN PRESS PROMINENTLY PLAYED URSO'S PARTING COMMENTS PRAISING MONTENEGRO FOR MEASURES TAKEN TO CURB ILLEGAL CROSS-BORDER TRADE.) HE ALSO CRITICIZED AT LENGTH THE FINANCE MINISTER IN THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT, OTTAVIANO DEL TURCO, WHO HAD MADE CRITICISM OF MONTENEGRO A TRADEMARK OF HIS TENURE AND WAS AGAIN SHOOTING OFF HIS MOUTH. HE NOTED THAT ITALIAN PRESS CRITICISM OF MONTENEGRO AS A BASE FOR SMUGGLERS, A STAPLE STORY IN 2000, HAD LARGELY DISAPPEARED. PEROVIC SAID THAT THIS WAS NOT BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE IN ITALIAN GOVERNMENT IN MAY 2001, BUT BECAUSE THE PROBLEM HAD LARGELY BEEN BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL. (COMMENT: IT'S TRUE THAT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4434 PAGE 01 ROME 02660 02 OF 02 311622Z ACTION EUR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W -------------- B66AFB 311622Z /38 O 311654Z MAY 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4010 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY AMCONSUL NAPLES PRIORITY AMCONSUL FLORENCE AMCONSUL MILAN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 002660 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2007 TAGS: IT MW OPRC PGOV MW OPRC PGOV SR SRIT EUN SUBJECT: POSSIBLE ITALIAN INDICTMENT OF MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT BERLUSCONI'S GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN LESS INTERESTED THAN ITS PREDECESSOR IN CRITICIZING MONTENEGRO. THE ITALIAN MFA HAS ALSO TOLD US THAT ALL OF ITS INDICATIONS ARE THAT MONTENEGRO IS NO LONGER A MAIN SOURCE OF CIGARETTES SMUGGLED INTO ITALY.) TO ALL OF THESE COMMENTS, POLMC REPLIED THAT THERE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 02660 02 OF 02 311622Z IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SCELSI HAD ANY REASON TO BE INFLUENCED BY "ANTI-MONTENEGRIN CIRCLES" OR TO HAVE A POSITION ON THE FEDERAL RELATIONS BETWEEN SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: IT'S TO BE EXPECTED THAT MANY MONTENEGRINS, AND NOT A FEW ITALIAN NEWSPAPERS, WOULD SEEK A HIDDEN SIGNIFICANCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS NEWS. IT IS ALSO UNDERSTANDABLE THAT DJUKANOVIC SUPPORTERS (AND EVEN HIS DETRACTORS) WOULD SEEK TO EXPLAIN THE MOVE AS A POLITICAL MEASURE RELATED TO ITALY'S DETERMINATION TO KEEP MONTENEGRO WITHIN YUGOSLAVIA. BUT IT JUST AIN'T TRUE. ITALY'S PROSECUTORS, AS WE'VE REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, ARE EVEN MORE AUTONOMOUS THAN THEIR US COUNTERPARTS; THEY LITERALLY ANSWER TO NO ONE. THE INABILITY OF THE GOVERNMENT TO INFLUENCE HOW AND WHO THE PROSECUTORS CHOOSE TO INVESTIGATE HAS BEEN A CONSTANT ANNOYANCE TO PRIME MINISTER BERLUSCONI, WHO HAS FACED A SERIES OF INVESTIGATIONS, INICTMENTS AND TRIALS LASTING RIGHT UP TO TODAY. ECAUSE OF ITS HISTORY, ITALY HAS GIVEN THE SPECIL ANTI-MAFIA PROSECUTORS EVEN MORE PROCEDURAL LEEWAY IN INVESTIGATION AND PROSECUTION OF ORGANIZED CRIME ACTIVITY. NOR IS IT LIKELY THAT A FIGURE NOW IN THE OPPOSITION (DINI OR DEL TURCO) WOULD HAVE A MOTIVE (LINGERING SYMPATHY FOR MILOSEVIC?!) TO TAKE THE RISK OF PUSHING THE PROSECUTOR TO GO PUBLIC. ONE TYPE OF POLITICAL MOTIVE CANNOT BE RULED OUT: THE AMBITION OF A PROSECUTOR TO MAKE A NAME FOR HIMSELF. EVEN WITH THAT POSSIBILITY, THIS CASE IS VERY MUCH WHAT IT APPEARS TO BE: A COMPLEX, LONG-TERM, ANTI-MAFIA INVESTIGATION MOVING GRADUALLY UPWARD FROM LOWER TO HIGHER LEVEL. END COMMENT DEAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 02660 02 OF 02 311622Z CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME02660 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL