NORTH AFRICA: OUTLOOK FOR DEMOCRACY SUBJECT OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 002340

SIPDIS

NAIROBI FOR KHARTOUM

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EAID XI ITALY'>IT UN
SUBJECT: NORTH AFRICA: OUTLOOK FOR DEMOCRACY SUBJECT OF
BOLOGNA CONFERENCE


1. SUMMARY: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY AND THE UNIVERSITY OF
BOLOGNA PRESENTED A CONFERENCE MAY 3-4 ON STRATEGIES FOR A
PLURALISTIC FUTURE IN NORTH AFRICA. ACADEMICIANS AND
PRACTITIONERS FROM THE UNITED STATES, EUROPE, AND NORTH
AFRICA PRESENTED THE HISTORICAL AND PRESENT-DAY CONTEXT IN
WHICH DEMOCRATS STRUGGLE FOR RULE OF LAW, POLITICAL
PARTICIPATION, AND FREEDOM FOR CIVIL SOCIETY. PROMINENT
THEMES INCLUDED THE ANTI-COLONIAL LEGACY'S HINDRANCE OF
DEMOCRACY; INTERNAL AND FOREIGN FEARS THAT ELECTIONS COULD
BRING ISLAMISTS TO POWER; THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL PARTIES ON
ACCOUNTABILITY; WHETHER PATRIARCHY AFFECTS DEMOCRATIZATION;
THE RELEVANCE OF OIL, TRIBALISM, AND MILITARISM; AND THE
IRRELEVANCE OF ISLAM AND CULTURE AS FACTORS IMPEDING
DEMOCRACY IN THE MUSLIM WORLD. AREAS IN WHICH DONOR SUPPORT
WAS CITED AS ONLY MARGINALLY EFFECTIVE OR EVEN
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE INCLUDED HUMAN RIGHTS TRAINING, PREMATURE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-PARTY SYSTEMS, AND MILITARY AID.
PRESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED STRENGTHENING THE PRIVATE SECTOR,
ENCOURAGING THE EMERGENCE OF INDEPENDENT MEDIA, AND BEING
LESS FEARFUL OF THE POSSIBILITY OF UNDESIRABLE SHORT-TERM
ELECTORAL OUTCOMES. END SUMMARY.


2. THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY BOLOGNA CENTER, UNIVERSITY
OF BOLOGNA (UB) FACULTY OF LAW'S CENTER FOR CONSTITUTIONAL
STUDIES AND DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT, AND UB'S "KING ABDULAZIZ"
INTERNATIONAL CENTER OF ISLAMIC STUDIES SPONSORED A
CONFERENCE IN BOLOGNA MAY 3-4. ENTITLED, "STRATEGIES FOR THE
FUTURE OF NORTH AFRICA: THE CHANGING DIMENSIONS OF LAW,
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND CIVIL SOCIETY," THE MEETING
BROUGHT TOGETHER ACADEMICIANS, PRACTITIONERS, DIPLOMATS, AND
STUDENTS FOR A CLOSE LOOK AT A REGION THAT HAS RESISTED THE
DEMOCRATIZATION TREND THAT HAS SWEPT OVER EASTERN EUROPE AND
LATIN AMERICA. THE MOST PROMINENT SPEAKER WAS WILLIAM
QUANDT, VICE PROVOST FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA AND FORMER NSC STAFF MEMBER UNDER THE
NIXON AND CARTER ADMINISTRATIONS. THE FOLLOWING REPORT IS A
COMPILATION OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED.

FACTORS IMPEDING DEMOCRACY IN NORTH AFRICA--OR NOT
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3. TRIBALISM. IN ARAB SOCIETIES, PARTICULARLY BEDOUIN ONES,
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SOLIDARITY AND POWER HAS TRADITIONALLY
BEEN RELATED TO FAMILY AND TRIBAL GROUPINGS. MEMBERS OF
POWERFUL FAMILIES OR TRIBES BENEFIT FROM THIS UNDEMOCRATIC
SYSTEM AND HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE TO CREATE A SYSTEM THAT
APPLIES THE LAWS EQUALLY TO EVERYONE. IN THIS CONTEXT, A
FORM OF DEMOCRACY THAT PROVIDED FOR SOME POWER SHARING ALONG
TRIBAL LINES MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE.


4. THE ANTI-COLONIAL LEGACY. MOST OF THE LEADERS AND ELITES
IN NORTH AFRICA ARE VETERANS OF THE BITTER STRUGGLE AGAINST
EUROPEAN COLONIALISM. THE CONSTITUTIONS THEY WROTE WERE
PRIMARILY INTENDED TO EMPOWER THEIR STATES TO FIGHT THE
COLONIAL POWER. CITIZENS' RIGHTS WERE SECONDARY.
FURTHERMORE, THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRACY ITSELF WAS CONSIDERED
HYPOCRITICAL BECAUSE IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH EUROPEAN
COUNTRIES WHOSE BEHAVIOR IN NORTH AFRICA TOOK LITTLE ACCOUNT
OF THE POPULATIONS' WISHES.


5. MILITARISM. THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT HAS BEEN USED AS
AN EXCUSE TO POSTPONE DEMOCRACY. IT IS TRUE, HOWEVER, THAT
ARAB GOVERNMENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED THEIR MILITARIES IN ORDER
TO DEFEND THEIR INTERESTS AGAINST A HEAVILY MILITARIZED
ISRAEL. THESE MILITARIES HAVE EITHER SEIZED POWER AND
MAINTAINED DICTATORSHIPS OR DEFENDED AUTOCRATIC MONARCHIES.


6. RENTIER STATES. THE PROMINENT ROLE THAT OIL AND GAS PLAY
IN THE ECONOMIES OF ALGERIA AND LIBYA MAKE THEM "RENTIER
STATES." IN EGYPT, U.S. AID CAUSES A SIMILAR EFFECT. SINCE
TAXES PAID BY CITIZENS DO NOT FILL GOVERNMENT COFFERS, THE
PUBLIC HAS LITTLE LEVERAGE TO DEMAND GOVERNMENT
ACCOUNTABILITY AND RESPONSIVENESS. THE RESULT IS OFTEN
CORRUPTION AND ABUSE OF CITIZENS' RIGHTS.


7. FEAR OF ISLAMIST GOVERNMENT. BOTH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
ACTORS FEAR THAT ISLAMISTS COULD INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE
THROUGH AN EXPANSION OF FREEDOM OR DEMOCRACY. WHEN ALGERIA'S
ISLAMIC SALVATION FRONT (FIS) SWEPT FIRST-ROUND ELECTIONS IN
1991, NOT ONLY THE ARMY BUT ALSO COMPONENTS OF CIVIL SOCIETY
DECIDED TO ANNUL THE RESULTS. THE THEORY WAS THAT THE FIS
WOULD NOT HOLD DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE, DESPITE
THEIR ASSURANCES. TODAY WESTERN GOVERNMENTS ARE LESS AFRAID
OF ISLAMIST RULE THAN THEY WERE IN 1991, AND THE CIVIL WAR
THAT THE ANNULMENT SPARKED HAS MADE MANY PEOPLE RECONSIDER
HOW BAD FIS RUL WOULD REALLY HAVE BEEN.


8. ISLAM. ONE SPEAKER STATED THAT THERE IS NO FULLY
DEMOCRATIC STATE WITH A MAJORITY MUSLIM POPULATION ANYWHERE.
NOTE: SENEGAL IS AN EXCEPTION. END NOTE. HOWEVER, THIS
LACK OF DEMOCRACY CANNOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO RELIGION. NOTHING
IN ISLAMIC TEXTS IS UNFAVORABLE TO DEMOCRACY, NOR IS ANYTHING
IN CHRISTIAN TEXTS FAVORABLE TO DEMOCRACY. INTERPRETATION
AND PRACTICE ARE KEY. SINCE MANY NON-MUSLIM COUNTRIES ARE
ALSO UNDEMOCRATIC, OTHER FACTORS MUST EXPLAIN THE LACK OF
DEMOCRACY. FURTHERMORE, AT ONE TIME, THE LACK OF DEMOCRACY
IN PLACES LIKE LATIN AMERICA AND FASCIST SPAIN AND ITALY WAS
ATTRIBUTED TO CATHOLIC CULTURE. HISTORY HAS PROVEN THAT THE
"PATRIARCHAL"--EVEN "DICTATORIAL"--NATURE OF CATHOLICISM DOES
NOT IMPEDE DEMOCRACY.


9. CULTURE. MANY WESTERNERS BELIEVE THAT ARAB CULTURE MUST
BE INIMICAL TO DEMOCRACY, BUT RESEARCH SHOWS THAT DEMOCRATIC
VALUES ARE EQUALLY WIDESPREAD AMONG MUSLIMS AND WESTERNERS.
SURVEY DATA SHOW SIMILAR ATTITUDES AMONG MUSLIMS AND
WESTERNERS ON THE IMPORTANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND
PRACTICES, PREFERENCE FOR STRONG LEADERS, AND THE ROLE OF
RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN THE POLITICAL ARENA.

ISLAM, PATRIARCHY, AND DICTATORSHIP: DIVERGENT VIEWS


10. SO DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE TO PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY
THAT ARAB CULTURE IS LARGELY PATRIARCHAL AND THAT
SHARI'A-BASED FAMILY LAW CODES DISCRIMINATE AGAINST WOMEN IN
MATTERS OF INHERITANCE AND JUDICIAL TESTIMONY? THIS WAS THE
MOST CONTROVERSIAL SUBJECT AT THE CONFERENCE. SOME SCHOLARS
STATED THAT SINCE THE FAMILY IS THE BASIC UNIT OF SOCIETY,
THE AUTHORITARIAN FAMILY MODEL--IN WHICH THE HUSBAND IS
UNQUESTIONABLE--CONDITIONS CITIZENS TO ACCEPT DICTATORSHIP.
HOWEVER, OTHERS NOTED THAT WOMEN'S LIBERATION IS NOT
NECESSARILY A PREREQUISITE FOR DEMOCRACY. IN THE WEST,
DEMOCRACY WAS INTRODUCED (ALBEIT IN A LIMITED FORM) BEFORE
WOMEN WERE ENFRANCHISED. FINALLY, DESPITE THE COMMON
STEREOTYPES, ARAB WOMEN ARE NEITHER POWERLESS IN THE FAMILY
NOR NECESSARILY OPPOSED TO ISLAMIST PARTIES AND CAUSES.

MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY NOT NECESSARY THE IDEAL
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11. A PARTY-LESS OR WEAK PARTY SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY BE
PREFERABLE TO A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM, SINCE THE HEAD OF STATE
IS LESS ABLE TO DOMINATE THE LEGISLATURE THROUGH CONTROL BY
HIS OWN PARTY. INSTEAD OF PROMOTING PARTY DEVELOPMENT IN A
TOP-HEAVY SYSTEM, INTERNAL ACTORS NEED TO CREATE
CONSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES THAT PROVIDE FOR INDEPENDENCE OR
CHECKS AND BALANCES BETWEEN THE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT AND
CIVIL SOCIETY.

HOW DONORS WASTE MONEY IN NORTH AFRICA
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12. DONORS HAVE GIVEN LITTLE ATTENTION TO DEMOCRATIC
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH AFRICA. MOST OF THE FOREIGN AID GIVEN
GOES TO EGYPT'S MILITARY. SPEAKERS RECOMMENDED THAT THE USG
INCREASE ITS CONTRIBUTIONS TO DEMOCRATIZATION PROJECTS AND
REDUCE MILITARY AID. HUMAN RIGHTS TRAINING FOR POLICE AND
ELECTION COMMISSIONERS, HOWEVER, MAY BE OF LITTLE USE IN
SYSTEMS THAT STILL DEPEND ON REPRESSION--NOT LEGITIMACY--FOR
SOCIAL CONTROL.

OPPORTUNITIES TO HELP
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13. POLITICAL OPENING COMES ABOUT THROUGH INTERNAL CHANGE,
AND EXTERNAL ACTORS' ROLES ARE MARGINAL. HOWEVER, DONORS
SHOULD LOOK TO ENCOURAGE THREE PROMISING TRENDS: THE
IMPROVEMENT IN LOCAL MEDIA, SOME NEW ENTREPRENEURISM, AND THE
SEA CHANGE IN ATTITUDES TOWARDS DEMOCRACY. USING HISTORY AS
A GUIDE, THEY SHOULD LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR
TRANSFORMATION. THIS CAN HAPPEN WHEN COMPETING SOCIAL FORCES
ARE EXHAUSTED BUT NEITHER SIDE IS DOMINANT, FOR EXAMPLE WHEN
A CIVIL WAR ENDS. ALTERNATIVELY, A SOCIAL PACT CAN BE
CONSTRUCTED WHEN THERE ARE SEVERE DIVISIONS WITHIN AN
AUTOCRACY AND CREDIBLE PARTIES ON BOTH SIDES (E.G.,
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION) THAT ARE ABLE TO DELIVER.

A VISION FOR THE FUTURE
--------------


14. IN SPITE OF THE MANY CHALLENGES FACING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DEMOCRACY IN NORTH AFRICA, ONE SPEAKER--AN ITALIAN--STATED
THAT NORTH AFRICA IS MORE PROPERLY PART OF EUROPE THAN
AFRICA. WITH THIS IN MIND, CAN WE IMAGINE THAT THIRTY YEARS
FROM NOW NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES WILL BE SO ECONOMICALLY AND
POLITICALLY DEVELOPED THAT THEY COULD ASPIRE TO BECOME
MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION? IN THE MEANTIME, NORTH AFRICA
COULD LEARN FROM THE DEMOCRACY LESSONS OF MUSLIM DEMOCRACIES
LIKE SENEGAL AND EVENTUALLY TIP THE BALANCE ON THE AFRICAN
CONTINENT TOWARD PEACEFUL POLITICAL PLURALISM.
SEMBLER