(U) IIR 7 300 0410: "ZAHIR SHAH HOPES FOR A NEW

S E C R E T ROME 001799 SIPDIS SECRET PAGE 02 ROME 01799 101547Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2012 TAGS: PINS AF AFGHANISTAN SUBJECT: (U) IIR 7 300 0410: "ZAHIR SHAH HOPES FOR A NEW MONARCHY" REF: IIR 7 300 0410 02 CLASSIFIED BY: POL MIN COUNS THOMAS COUNTRYMAN, REASON 1.5 (D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: POST WOULD LIKE TO CORRECT INFORMATION PRESENTED IN REF IIR. THE SOURCE MAY HAVE REPORTED RELIABLY IN THE PAST, AND MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SOME ASPECTS OF AFGHANISTAN, BUT S/HE IS UNINFORMED ON THE FORMER KING'S PLANS AND THINKING. MUCH OF THE INFORMATION IS SERIOUSLY FLAWED. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH POSTPONED (VICE CANCELED) HIS SCHEDULED RETURN TO KABUL AT THE REQUEST AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE GOVERNMENTS OF ITALY AND THE UNITED STATES. HE WAS RELUCTANT TO DO SO AND INITIALLY RESISTED. THERE WERE NO PRE-CONDITIONS TO HIS RETURN SET BY THE AFGHAN INTERIM ADMINISTRATION (AIA). HE HAS NOT SOUGHT THE RESTORATION OF THE MONARCHY AT ANY POINT IN HIS PREPARATIONS TO RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN, AND HE HAS NEVER/NEVER SOUGHT "HEREDITARY SUCCESSION...GUARANTEED BY THE CONSTITUTION." ¶3. (C) WHILE THE KING HAS PERHAPS EXPRESSED SOME VAGUE NOSTALGIA FOR HIS ERSTWHILE PALACE, HE HAS NEVER INTIMATED TO US THAT THE SMALL PALACE PROVIDED FOR HIM BY THE AIA IS AN "INSULT TO HIS DIGNITY." TO THE CONTRARY, HE HAS SAID SEVERAL TIMES AND IN DIFFERENT SETTINGS THAT FOR A FORMER SECRET PAGE 03 ROME 01799 101547Z MONARCH TO RETURN TO THE PALACE IS UNDERSTANDABLY VERBOTEN. ZAHIR SHAH KNOWS QUITE WELL WHO SUGGESTED GRANDSON MUSTAFA NOT RETURN WITH HIM; THE MESSAGE WAS PERSONALLY DELIVERED TO THE KING BY A SENIOR USG REPRESENTATIVE. ¶4. (C) THE KING'S SON-IN-LAW AND SPOKESMAN TOLD US ONLY YESTERDAY THAT THE KING IS NOT ILL-AT-EASE WITH PROVISIONS FOR THE AIA TO PROVIDE FOR HIS SECURITY, AND THE KING HAS TOLD US THIS HIMSELF SEVERAL TIMES. WHILE IT IS INDEED TRUE THAT THE KING HAS BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY OF THE GOI'S PROVIDING SECURITY, THESE DISCUSSIONS BEGAN AT THE REQUEST OF THE USG. ¶5. (S) FINALLY, WE DISAGREE COMPLETELY WITH FIELD COMMENTS WHICH SUGGEST "THE KING WILL NEVER BE SATISFIED BY THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND UNLESS HE SEES THE POSSIBILITY OF THE RETURN OF THE MONARCHY." THIS IS PREPOSTEROUS WHEN VIEWED IN THE CONTEXT OF THE KING'S OWN REMARKS. HE HAS OFTEN STATED HIS DEEP WISH TO RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN IN ORDER TO DIE THERE, BUT PRIOR TO THAT TO SERVE THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN IN SOME WAY IF SUCH IS THEIR WILL AS INDICATED THROUGH THE LOYA JIRGA. EQUALLY, HE HAS REITERATED HIS UNDERSTANDING THAT THE MONARCHY IS A DEFUNCT INSTITUTION. HE HAS GIVEN NO INDICATION OF SEEKING TO REVIVE IT. SEMBLER SECRET > 2002ROME01799 - Classification: SECRET