AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING

CONFIDENTIAL ROME 001644 SIPDIS ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE NSC FOR KHALILZHAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION REF: A. 01 ROME 5901 ¶B. 01 ROME 5902 ¶C. ROME 1616 CLASSIFIED BY: POL MINCOUNS TOM COUNTRYMAN, REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) ON A MARCH 11-12 VISIT TO ROME, SA/PAB DEPUTY DIRECTOR STEVE MCGANN MET WITH MFA OFFICIALS, REPRESENTATIVES OF FORMER AFGHAN KING ZAHIR SHAH, AND ZAHIR SHAH HIMSELF. MCGANN AND SA/PD DEPUTY DIRECTOR SUSAN HOVANEC CLOSED OUT AN ESF GRANT OFFERED TO THE KING'S ASSOCIATION TO PROMOTE THE EMERGENCY LOYA JIRGA, DEMOCRACY, AND WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION IN AFGHANISTAN (REFS A, B),RETURNING SOME $280,000 TO THE USG FOR FURTHER ACTIVITIES TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN AFGHANISTAN. DURING THE MEETING WITH THE FORMER KING, ZAHIR SHAH ALLUDED TO EVOLVING EXPECTATIONS OF THE ROLE HE WOULD PLAY UPON HIS RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN, PORTRAYING HIMSELF -- "IF THE AFGHAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01644 01 OF 03 030823Z PEOPLE WANT IT" -- AS POSSIBLY A HEAD OF STATE A LA THE FRENCH PRESIDENT. END SUMMARY. -------------- CHANNEL MONEY INSIDE AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶2. (SBU) IN THEIR MEETING WITH MFA COORDINATOR FOR AFGHANISTAN ENRICO DI MAIO, MCGANN AND HOVANEC DISCUSSED THE NEED FOR THE USG TO RE-PROGRAM REMAINING MONEYS FROM A GRANT AWARDED TO THE ZAHIR SHAH ASSOCIATION FOR PEACE AND SELF-DETERMINATION IN AFGHANISTAN FOR FURTHER WORK INSIDE AFGHANISTAN TOWARD THE SAME PURPOSES -- DEMOCRACY BUILDING AND INCREASED CIVIL PARTICIPATION BY AFGHAN WOMEN. DI MAIO SAID THE GOI WOULD LET THE KING'S ASSOCIATION TAKE ANYTHING USEFUL PROVIDED BY THE GOI, SUCH AS COMPUTERS, WITH THEM TO AFGHANISTAN, BUT ITALY, TOO, WAS PLANNING ON ENDING DIRECT FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THE KING AND HIS ASSOCIATES. ¶3. (C) DI MAIO SAID THE REALITY IN AFGHANISTAN WAS THAT THOSE WHO CONTINUED TO RECEIVE OUTSIDE SUPPORT, SUCH AS FORMER PRESIDENT RABBANI, WOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO SEEK -- AND OBTAIN -- INSIDE SUPPORT: SIMPLY PUT, TO BUY LOYA JIRGA (LJ) VOTES. IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO ENSURE THAT PEOPLE LIKE AIA CHAIRMAN KARZAI ALSO HAD ACCESS TO FUNDS, AT LEAST THE DEVELOPMENT FUNDS AVAILABLE TO THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT. THE PROPER DEPLOYMENT OF THOSE FUNDS BY THE AIA WOULD LEGITIMATELY STRENGTHEN KARZAI'S POSITION. MCGANN CONVEYED THE USG INTENT TO SUPPORT PREPARATION AND HOLDING OF THE LJ, BUT NOTED THAT OTHER COUNTRIES MUST SHARE COSTS WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. DI MAIO SAID THE GOI HAD NOT YET CONSIDERED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 01644 01 OF 03 030823Z FUNDING OF THE LJ, BUT HE HOPED TO BRING THIS UP FOR FINANCING CONSIDERATION. ITALY, TOO, MUST PAY ITS SHARE, HE SAID; "WITH YOU, WE CAME UP WITH THIS IDEA." HE SUGGESTED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALSO CONSIDER USING FOREIGN ASSISTANCE TO ENCOURAGE THE KIND OF COOPERATION THAT BEGAN IN BONN. AIA DEFENSE MINISTER FAHIM, INTERIOR MINISTER QANOONI, AND FOREIGN MINISTER ABDULLAH SHOULD BE ENCOURAGED, IF NEED BE UNDER THREAT OF AN END TO FINANCIAL SUPPORT, TO TELL RABBANI TO STOP INTERFERING IN EFFORTS TO SET UP THE LOYA JIRGA. ¶4. (SBU) DI MAIO UNDERSCORED ITALY'S INTEREST IN FUNDING DEVELOPMENT OF AFGHANISTAN'S ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE, PREFERABLY IN COORDINATION WITH THE USG. "NO ONE ELSE BUT THE TWO OF US IS THINKING ABOUT THIS," HE ASSERTED. HE MENTIONED THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LAW INSTITUTE (IDLI) AS A POSSIBLE VEHICLE. HOVANEC NOTED THERE SHOULD BE GROWING INTEREST IN SUCH WORK AMONG NGO'S; REPORTING ON PROBLEMS IN THIS SPHERE HAS INCREASED. IN RESPONSE TO MCGANN'S QUERY, DI MAIO CLARIFIED THAT ITALY WOULD BE WILLING TO TAKE THE LEAD IN JUDICIAL DEVELOPMENT. (N.B. THE IDLI CONTINUES ITS WORK ON A DATABASE AND ANALYSIS OF PAST AFGHAN CONSTITUTIONS AND CODES; SEE REF C.) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4228 PAGE 01 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z ACTION SA-00 INFO LOG-00 MFA-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 7E3AEE 030824Z /40 P 030659Z APR 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3066 INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ALMATY AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY BERLIN AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TASHKENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ROME 001644 SIPDIS ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE NSC FOR KHALILZHAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION ¶5. (SBU) AS A RESULT OF THE AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN MCGANN AND ZALMAI RASSOUL (THE FORMER KING'S EXECUTIVE SECRETARY AND AIA AVIATION MINISTER),GRANT EXPERTS MUELLER SIPDIS AND SNEARLY WORKED WITH ZAHIR SHAH'S REPRESENTATIVES TO BEGIN AUDITING EXPENDITURES UNDER THE ORIGINAL GRANT AND DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF MONEY REMAINING. THE ASSOCIATION RETURNED UNUSED FUNDS IN THE AMOUNT OF $117,675 TO THE USG AND URGED THAT THESE MONEYS BE USED "TO PURSUE THE FULL PARTICIPATION OF AFGHAN WOMEN IN ALL ASPECTS OF CIVIL, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL LIFE IN AFGHANISTAN." THE AGREEMENT FURTHER SPECIFIES THAT, "IN LIGHT OF HIS MAJESTY'S IMMINENT RETURN TO AFGHANISTAN AND THE CESSATION OF THE ASSOCIATION'S ACTIVITIES IN ROME, ITALY," THE REMAINING FUNDS "BE USED TO COMMENCE WORK WITHIN AFGHANISTAN." -------------- KING'S PLANS FOR HIS RETURN -------------- ¶6. (C) DCM, MCGANN, AND HOVANEC MET WITH FORMER KING ZAHIR SHAH ON MARCH 12 TO CONFIRM THE DECISION TO CLOSE OUT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z GRANT AND DISCUSS THE KING'S FUTURE PLANS. BOTH SIDES SHARED APPRECIATION FOR THEIR ONGOING COOPERATION TO LIBERATE AFGHANISTAN FROM THE SCOURGE OF TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM AND TO BUILD A DEMOCRATIC AND PROGRESSIVE ISLAMIC STATE. MCGANN NOTED THE IMPORTANCE OF NEXT STEPS IN IMPLEMENTING THE BONN AGREEMENT AND OF THE SYMBOLIC ROLE THE KING WOULD PLAY IN OPENING THE LOYA JIRGA. HE ASKED WHAT THE KING WOULD PERCEIVE AS A SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME FROM THE LJ. THE KING REPLIED THAT ALTHOUGH HE HAD BEEN FAR AWAY, THE AFGHAN PEOPLE HAD MAINTAINED CONFIDENCE IN HIM. HE HOPED TO BE OF USE TO HIS COUNTRYMEN IN FULFILLING THEIR ASPIRATIONS. HIS MOST IMPORTANT EFFORT WOULD BE TO MAINTAIN HARMONY AND HELP TO PROVIDE SECURITY AND PEACE TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN. HE HOPED TO BRING UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN DIFFERENT ETHNIC ELEMENTS AND AFGHANS PURSUING "DIFFERENT POLICIES." "I OFFER MYSELF IN SERVICE TO THE AFGHAN NATION IN ANY ROLE OR SERVICE THE PEOPLE WANT, AS DETERMINED BY THE LOYA JIRGA," ZAHIR CONCLUDED. ¶7. (C) MCGANN NOTED THAT THE KING HAD SAID HE DID NOT INTEND TO SEEK A ROLE IN GOVERNMENT OR TO PLAY A ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN'S TRANSITIONAL AUTHORITY. WAS THIS STILL HIS PERSPECTIVE? GENERAL WALI, THE KING'S SON-IN-LAW AND INTERPRETER (COMMENT: SOMETIMES SUSPECTED OF INSERTING HIS OWN VIEWS IN THE TRANSLATIONS),ASKED WHETHER THIS QUESTION REFERRED TO THE KING'S PLAYING AN EXECUTIVE ROLE, SUCH AS A PRIME MINISTER OR FOREIGN MINISTER, OR A HEAD OF STATE ROLE, SUCH AS THE BRITISH KING OR THE FRENCH PRESIDENT. HOW DOES THE KING SEE HIMSELF, MCGANN REPEATED. THE KING AND/OR WALI HEDGED, BUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF DISCUSSION REVEALED AN EVOLUTION IN THE KING'S -- OR HIS ENTOURAGE'S -- PERCEPTION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 01644 02 OF 03 030823Z OF HIS ROLE TO INCLUDE CONSIDERATION OF HIS POSITION AS A RELATIVELY ACTIVE HOS WITH NOT INSIGNIFICANT AUTHORITY TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL CREATION OF A PERMANENT GOVERNMENT. BY THE END OF THE CONVERSATION, THE KING WAS QUITE CLEAR HE WOULD CONSIDER A FUTURE HOS ROLE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE FRENCH PRESIDENT. ¶8. (C) DCM ASKED THE KING WHETHER HE BELIEVED OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM IN AFGHANISTAN. ZAHIR SHAH NOTED THAT INTERFERENCE BY IRAN, PAKISTAN, THE UK UNDER THE TIMES OF BRITISH INDIA, HAD ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM FOR AFGHANISTAN. HE WELCOMED MCGANN'S REFERENCE TO THE SIX-PLUS-TWO'S REAFFIRMATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF NON-INTERFERENCE, BUT SAID IT WOULD HAVE TO BE IMPLEMENTED AND OBSERVED. RELATIONS WITH IRAN HAD IMPROVED, BUT NOW SEEMED ON THE BASIS OF REPORTS HE RECEIVED FROM INSIDE AFGHANISTAN TO BE DETERIORATING AGAIN. ¶9. (SBU) MCGANN RETURNED TO THE KING'S ROLE IN THE LJ. THE USG APPRECIATED THE KING'S STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN IN AFGHANISTAN'S RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION. IT WAS VERY IMPORTANT THAT ZAHIR SHAH CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE NEED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4229 PAGE 01 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z ACTION SA-00 INFO LOG-00 MFA-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 7E3AFB 030824Z /40 P 030659Z APR 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3067 INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ALMATY AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT AMEMBASSY BEIJING AMEMBASSY BERLIN AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY TASHKENT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ROME 001644 SIPDIS ALMATY FOR EMBASSY DUSHANBE NSC FOR KHALILZHAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2012 TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF PHUM PGOV EAID AF IT ITPREL ITPREL AFGHANISTAN SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: ZAHIR SHAH'S FUTURE PLANS, CLOSING OUT ESF GRANT TO ZAHIR SHAH FOUNDATION FOR WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION. THE KING "AGREED ENTIRELY." HE THEN REPEATED THE SHOCK HE HAD FELT AT THE TALIBAN'S DESTRUCTION OF THE BAMIYAN BUDDHAS, A GESTURE WHICH "HURT THE WHOLE CIVILIZED WORLD." THE BLOWING UP OF THE STATUES WAS MORE THAN CULTURAL DESTRUCTION, MCGANN ADDED. IT REPRESENTED INTOLERANCE. THE USG HOPED THE KING WOULD ALSO USE HIS INFLUENCE TO EMPHASIZE THE NEED FOR TOLERANCE AND RELIGIOUS FREEDOM. "WE HAVE SO MANY IMPORTANT PROBLEMS TO SOLVE," ZAHIR SHAH AGREED. "THAT IS WHY I RETURN, TO ENCOURAGE THAT THESE PROBLEMS BE SOLVED IN A CIVILIZED WAY." AFGHANS WERE ALWAYS A TOLERANT PEOPLE, HE EXPLAINED, WHO WERE ONLY MISLED BY POOR AND INTOLERANT EDUCATION. HE EXPRESSED HOPE THAT HE COULD HELP TO RECTIFY MISTAKES MADE (UNDER THE TALIBAN REGIME, ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT SAY SO DIRECTLY.) ¶10. (SBU) ZAHIR SHAH REITERATED HIS APPRECIATION FOR U.S. SUPPORT, SAYING THE U.S. "STOOD UP SO OFTEN WHEN THE WORLD WAS IN DANGER." THE U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN IS WELCOME; AFGHANS APPRECIATE THOSE WHO ARE FIGHTING AND HAVE SHED THEIR BLOOD FOR AFGHANISTAN. THE WORK DONE BY YOUNG AMERICANS IN AFGHANISTAN NOW WILL CREATE EVEN MORE SYMPATHY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01644 03 OF 03 030824Z AND GOOD WILL AMONG FUTURE GENERATIONS. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) ALTHOUGH THE KING'S REPLIES TO QUESTIONS CONCERNING HIS FUTURE ROLE WERE SOMEWHAT INDIRECT, THEY REVEALED AN EVOLUTION IN HIS THINKING TO THE POINT WHERE HE WOULD SEEMINGLY NOT BE AVERSE TO ASSUMING A ROLE AS HEAD OF STATE. AND, ALTHOUGH HIS HEALTH AND MIND CONTINUE SOUND, IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE HIM PHYSICALLY EXERCISING ANYTHING BEYOND A CEREMONIAL ROLE WITHOUT CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT. IN THIS MEETING, AS IN OTHERS, HOWEVER, HE UNDERSCORED THAT HIS GOAL WOULD BE TO SUPPORT AND STRENGTHEN AIA CHAIRMAN KARZAI'S ROLE, NOT TO SUPERSEDE IT. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME01644 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL