ITALY ON ZIMBABWE: PEER PRESSURE BEST HOPE FOR

CONFIDENTIAL ROME 001511 SIPDIS PAGE 02 ROME 01511 01 OF 02 252356Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001511 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2007 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ETTC OPDC SA ZI PGOV PHUM ETTC OPDC SA ZI IT SADC ITPREL SADC SUBJECT: ITALY ON ZIMBABWE: PEER PRESSURE BEST HOPE FOR DEMOCRACY REF: A. BRUSSELS 1434 ¶B. SECSTATE 49517 ¶C. SECSTATE 42137 CLASSIFIED BY: POL M C T. COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) MFA'S OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICAN AFFAIRS REPLIED TO OUR RECENT DEMARCHE AND LETTER ON ZIMBABWE. THE GOI SHARES THE EU POINT OF VIEW THAT CONDEMNATIONS AND SANCTIONS ARE NECESSARY. HOWEVER, MARINI BELIEVES THAT THEY WILL PROBABLY PROVE INSUFFICIENT TO FORCE CHANGE. THE ROLE OF REGIONAL ACTORS IS KEY, AND SOUTH AFRICA POSSESSES ECONOMIC LEVERS THAT CAN INFLUENCE MUGABE. THE U.S. AND EU NEED TO CONSULT CLOSELY AND CONVINCE REGIONAL STATES TO PLAY A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE. THE EU WILL MONITOR LEGAL AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND CONSIDER ADDITIONAL "SMART SANCTIONS." END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) ON MARCH 14 POLOFF DELIVERED REF B DEMARCHE ON ZIMBABWE'S ELECTION. POST DELIVERED REF C LETTER TO PM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ROME 01511 01 OF 02 252356Z BERLUSCONI FROM SECRETARY POWELL ON THE CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE MARCH 6. IN A MARCH 21 MEETING, CONSIGLIERE GIORGIO MARINI, MFA OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA, PROVIDED THE FOLLOWING RESPONSE AND INSIGHTS: ITALY SUPPORTS THE EU POSITION, BUT ... -------------- ¶3. (C) MARINI EXPLAINED THAT THE GOI FULLY SUPPORTED THE EU POSITION ON ZIMBABWE. RECALLING THE FEB. 18 EU DECISION TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS, MARINI SAID THE GOI VIEWED THESE MEASURES AS A NECESSARY RESPONSE TO THE GOZ'S REFUSAL TO GIVE GROUND ON PRESS AND JUDICIAL FREEDOMS DURING A DIALOGUE WITH THE EU BASED ON THE COTONOU AGREEMENT. THE EU APPROACH WAS CALIBRATED TO AVOID WEAKENING THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL OPPOSITION TO MUGABE'S ACTIONS BY LEAVING AN OPENING TO THOSE WHO WOULD PAINT IT AS NEO-IMPERIALISM. HOWEVER, MARINI'S PERSONAL OPINION WAS THAT EU SANCTIONS WERE UNLIKELY TO BRING ABOUT DEMOCRATIC CHANGE. THE IMPORTANCE OF PEER PRESSURE -------------- ¶4. (C) WHAT COULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE WOULD BE CONDEMNATION OF MUGABE'S ACTIONS BY REGIONAL POWERS IN ADDITION TO THE WEST. MARINI SUGGESTED THAT ZIMBABWE'S DEPENDENCE ON SOUTH AFRICA FOR OIL AND GAS PROVIDED A KEY LEVER FOR PRESSURE. SOUTH AFRICA'S IMPORTANCE AS A MARKET FOR ZIMBABWE GAVE IT FURTHER LEVERAGE. ¶5. (C) ASKED WHY HE THOUGHT MBEKI HAD EVENTUALLY SUPPORTED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ROME 01511 01 OF 02 252356Z THE COMMONWEALTH'S EXPULSION OF ZIMBABWE, MARINI CITED UK AND U.S. PRESSURE AND SOUTH AFRICA'S KEY ROLE IN THE NEW ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT (NEPAD). ONLY WHEN HIS "BACK WAS TO THE WALL" WAS MBEKI WILLING TO OVERCOME DOMESTIC PRESSURES AND OPPOSE MUGABE. THE SITUATION WAS COMPLICATED FOR THE GSA, BECAUSE, ON THE ONE HAND, MUGABE HAD STOOD WITH THE ANC AGAINST APARTHEID IN SPITE OF HIS PERSONAL RIVALRY WITH MANDELA FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC). ON THE OTHER HAND, SOUTH AFRICA WANTED TO HEAD OFF A CIVIL WAR ON ITS BORDER CAUSED BY POLITICAL OUTRAGE, IN ORDER TO AVOID AN INFLUX OF REFUGEES. FURTHERMORE, MBEKI WANTED TO MAINTAIN AN UNTARNISHED LEADERSHIP ROLE IN NEPAD, SINCE HE RECOGNIZED THAT THE KEY TO AFRICA'S FUTURE WAS WESTERN PARTNERSHIP AND INVESTMENT. ¶6. (C) PER REF A, MARINI CALLED FOR CLOSE U.S.-EU COORDINATION THAT INCLUDED NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA. SUPPORT OF AFRICAN AND LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES IN THE UNHCR COULD ALSO PROVE IMPORTANT. ¶7. (C) MARINI PROVIDED A DRAFT COPY OF A REPLY FROM BERLUSCONI TO SECRETARY POWELL THAT HAD NOT YET BEEN CLEARED BY THE PM'S OFFICE. IT SAYS THAT BERLUSCONI SHARES U.S. CONCERNS AND VIEWS ON THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ELECTION AND IS PLEASED WITH THE RECENT COMMONWEALTH DECISION TO SUSPEND ZIMBABWE. AN EU TROIKA WILL CONSULT WITH SADC COUNTRIES TO IMPRESS UPON THEM THE NECESSITY TO STAND UP FOR HUMAN RIGHTS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO0475 PAGE 01 ROME 01511 02 OF 02 252356Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 ACQ-00 CA-01 CEA-01 CIAE-00 CIP-00 COME-00 CTME-00 INL-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 VO-03 R-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /017W -------------- 7A5F78 252356Z /69 R 251550Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY ROME TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2929 INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY GABORONE AMEMBASSY HARARE AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUANDA AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY NAIROBI AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY PRETORIA AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK USEU BRUSSELS 2603 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ROME 01511 02 OF 02 252356Z C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ROME 001511 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2007 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ETTC OPDC SA ZI PGOV PHUM ETTC OPDC SA ZI IT SADC ITPREL SADC SUBJECT: ITALY ON ZIMBABWE: PEER PRESSURE BEST HOPE FOR DEMOCRACY AND DEMOCRACY. EU'S NEXT STEPS DEPEND ON MUGABE -------------- ¶8. (C) ASKED WHAT THE EU PROPOSED NOW, MARINI POINTED TO THE CONCLUSIONS OF THE BARCELONA EUROPEAN COUNCIL (MARCH 15-16),WHICH STATE THAT THE EU "RESOLVES TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY ... AND WILL CONSIDER POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TARGETED MEASURES" AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. THE EU WILL MONITOR THE ACTIONS TAKEN AGAINST ARRESTED OPPOSITION LEADER TSVANGARAI AS WELL AS WHETHER MUGABE FORMS A UNITY GOVERNMENT. POTENTIAL FUTURE EU STEPS INCLUDE PLACING SANCTIONS ON THE SPOUSES AND CHILDREN OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSERS SANCTIONED IN THE FEB. 18 DECISION. SEMBLER CONFIDENTIAL > 2002ROME01511 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL