WAR AND PEACE IN KAREN STATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 001616

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV
CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2012
TAGS: PREL PHUM BM
SUBJECT: WAR AND PEACE IN KAREN STATE


Classified By: COM CARMEN M. MARTINEZ FOR REASON 1.5(D).


1. (U) Summary: In a recent visit to the small border town
of Myawaddy in eastern Karen State, Poloff found some
residual conflict between regime forces and Karen National
Union (KNU) forces. Although the KNU appears to have been
reduced to hit and run, guerilla-type attacks, the rugged
mountain terrain has thwarted regime efforts to gain total
control of the area. The border with Thailand in this area
of Karen State appeared quite porous with Burmese workers and
small shipments of goods moving back and forth to Thailand,
mostly outside official channels. Aside from the township of
Myawaddy, which is closely tied to the Thai economy, the
areas in this part of Burma are suffering badly from the
continued fighting and failed economic and social programs of
the SPDC. While the local population complained bitterly
about the regime there was little evidence of support for the
KNU's continued raids, which disrupt commercial activities.
The NLD was reorganizing in several towns we visited and its
leaders said it has more support than ever due to the failed
policies of the SPDC. End Summary.

The Road Less Traveled.....


2. (U) Poloff traveled by car from Rangoon to the eastern
Karen State border town of Myawaddy from November 19-21.
This was the first time in recent years that the SPDC had
allowed a foreigner other than International Committee for
the Red Cross staff to travel to Myawaddy from Rangoon.
(Ironically, foreigners can freely enter Myawaddy from the
Thailand side of the border between the hours 6 a.m. and 6
p.m.) The drive took a bone rattling 13 hours over two days
to cover just 290 miles.

Thamanya Sayadaw


3. (U) The venerable Buddhist Abbot Thamanya Sayadaw is a
vocal, if slightly eccentric, advocate of political change in
Burma living near the town of Hpa'an. Besides seeing to the
upgrading of local roads, the Sayadaw provides protection and
support for a growing community of followers near his
monastery. The Sayadaw's community appeared to be thriving;
businesses were active, homes were wooden instead of thatch,
and there were more cars, trucks, and motorcycles than in
towns nearer to Bago, thanks to contributions from around
Burma which the Sayadaw has funneled back into his community.
We were told that while the SPDC does not approve of the
Sayadaw's politics (Aung San Suu Kyi's first trip from
Rangoon after her May 6 release was to see him) they
grudgingly accept his community activities because he is so
popular with the people.


4. (U) Given the fractious political situation in Burma and
the lack of government funding for public projects, the
Sayadaw appears to have carved out a small but healthy patch
of civil society. In many ways, he is the epitome of a
Buddhist saint -- a source of grace and charity for his
people, who in turn accept his claims of semi-divine status.
The people, in any case, work hard and share in the benefits
of a functioning community.


6. (U) The abysmal condition of the rest of the roads from
Bago to Hpa'an (at some points it was easier taking the ox
cart path than to stay on the road) was indicative of the
generally backward conditions in the area outside the
Thamanya's safety net. While the economy is agrarian, it
appears to be limited to small-scale subsistence farming. In
one area there were remnants of what once must have been
large rubber plantations. Now, families harvest the rubber
independently, cure the sheets of rubber in front of their
huts, and sell them for about fifty cents a piece. The only
industries visible along the route were a palm oil plant, a
sugar mill near Hpa'an and several rock quarries.

Burma Army and DKBA Attempt to Control the Border


7. (U) Leaving Hpa'an on the road to Myawaddy, the frequency
of Burma Army encampments and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(DKBA) patrols increased significantly. The DKBA, a group
which rebelled from the largely Christian KNU and reached a
cease-fire agreement with the SPDC in the late 1990's, has
continued to attract young Karen Buddhists who are looking
for action. There are an estimated 5,000 DKBA troops in
Myawaddy alone and the organization reportedly controls most
of the economic activity in the corridor from Thailand to
Hpa'an. The DKBA's relative wealth was evident as they were
typically seen in new Ford and Toyota double cab trucks
carrying five to twelve DKBA "soldiers" in the back. The
DKBA soldiers' morale was visibly higher than the Burma Army
troops, who generally looked sullen and underfed, but it did
not appear that discipline was high. Relations between DKBA
and Burmese Army troops appeared good, though they did not
mix forces or appear to socialize together. We followed one
DKBA soldier on a motorcycle who was handing out money to
Burmese soldiers posted along the road. He told Poloff that
he was providing "tea money," amounting to about fifty cents,
to each of soldiers "just to help them out."


8. (U) DKBA and Burma Army troops were in evidence from a
checkpoint 30 miles west of the Thai border onward. As the
road climbed through the jungle, two or three Burma Army
soldiers were stationed every few hundred yards. There were
signs warning of mines along the roadside and bridges were
closely guarded and encircled with two sets of bamboo fences,
presumably to deter KNU attacks on the bridges. The Burma
Army had several outposts on the road, each with double
layers of bamboo fencing that could be closed once traffic
had passed. The army troops stationed on the mountain were
dug-in and remained mostly out of sight. We were told by
various sources that there were KNU attacks every week or
two, mainly by snipers on army troops or ambushes of DKBA
vehicles on the main road, in addition to skirmishes in the
jungle. There were also reportedly villages in the area,
even within Myawaddy township, that still supported the KNU
in spite of the government's decade long effort to quash
them.

Myawaddy - Almost Heaven.....


9. (U) On the outskirts of Myawaddy a long line of buses and
trucks queued on the road to process through a checkpoint.
When Poloff arrived at the checkpoint, officials demanded to
know why he was there and then attempted to search the
vehicle. Once cooler heads prevailed the officials backed
down, but it was clear that the intimidation level for normal
travelers was quite high. On the return trip through this
checkpoint the following morning, there were approximately
fifty to sixty heavily laden trucks and buses waiting for
inspection before their journey over the mountain range.


10. (U) Once in the town of Myawaddy, the heavy military
presence of the mountain pass and checkpoints gave way to a
thriving commercial center more closely linked to the economy
in Thailand than in Burma. In fact, the residents and
merchants used the Thai baht instead of the Burmese kyat in
all transactions. Also, virtually everyone, even bicycle
trishaw drivers, carried a Thai cellular telephone.
Ironically, with landlines to Rangoon down or of such poor
quality that calls were almost impossible, the cellular
phones made it easier to call Singapore from Myawaddy than to
call Rangoon (international rates to Burma are extremely
high).


11. (U) There were also many more new vehicles in Myawaddy
than in areas further inside Burma. Locals explained that
the DKBA controls vehicle imports into Myawaddy but the
vehicles cannot be registered with the Burmese government or
taken past Myawaddy (although this appears to be loosely
enforced, as we saw many DKBA in new trucks and motorcycles
on the road to Hpa'an). The prices for these vehicles were
one-tenth the price of similar vehicles in Rangoon where
imports are tightly controlled by the SPDC. One source
estimated that of the 1,000 vehicles in Myawaddy only 50 were
registered with the Burmese government. These fifty,
however, were said to be the only ones allowed to transit
freely to Thailand. Thus, they generated a lot of income for
their owners by transiting goods and people across the border.


12. (U) Although Burmese immigration officials prohibited
Poloff and two accompanying local staff from crossing "the
friendship bridge" into Thailand ("we cannot allow it without
instructions from higher authorities"),other Burmese were
allowed to cross for a fee of about fifty cents. Just under
the bridge, right in front of a Burma Army bunkered machine
gun nest, there was an active trade in illegal crossings by
boys with inner tubes willing to paddle passengers across the
shallow river for a few pennies. The border is quite porous
in Karen State, with the Burma Army controlling the two
"official" crossing points, Myawaddy and Three Pagodas Pass,
while the DKBA controls five other "major" crossings. The
KNU or others control many smaller crossings. Thus, we were
told, when the Burmese government closed the border earlier
this year, it diminished the flow of people and goods at
official crossings but most of the traffic just shifted to
other crossing points.


13. (U) Poloff attempted to visit the SPDC reception center
for the repatriation of Burmese migrants from Thailand but
was blocked from the facility first by an armed soldier, then
by a military intelligence (MI) officer. The only
information the MI officer was willing to share about the
facility was that it continued to process repatriations even
while the border was closed and that most returning migrants
spend only one night at the center before being transferred
to Hpa'an for additional processing.

NLD On the Rise


14. (C) Poloff met with NLD leaders in Hpa'an, Kawkareik,
and Myawaddy, all of whom were rebuilding their party
organizations and believed that the NLD enjoyed more popular
support now than in 1990. They all said that while most
people are still afraid to openly support the NLD,
frustration with SPDC policies and the economy is very high
and the people want change. In Hpa'an and Myawaddy, the
leaders said that MI was aware of their reorganization
activities and was not blocking them (although harassment of
their families and business activities continued.)


15. (C) In Kawkareik, the NLD leader said that he did not
think MI was aware of his reorganization activities but that
they would be now that we had visited (MI was closely
monitoring the entire trip). He said that this was fine, he
wanted to tell MI the truth and he did not fear their
reaction. In 1998, he had closed the NLD office under
pressure from MI because "we thought they were going to kill
us." Recently, he said he senses that MI, at least in his
town, no longer wants the conflict and is doing the minimum
to follow up on orders from Rangoon. Poloff asked that he
try to get word to NLD headquarters if he was wrong and there
was any retribution based on Poloff's visit (the same message
was conveyed to each NLD leader visited). Thus far we have
received no reports of problems.


16. (C) Asked if the local population supported the KNU in
its fight against the SPDC, the NLD leaders opined that while
the people despise the regime, they also are tired of the
fighting that disrupts their lives. They said only a small
percentage of the population still actively supports the KNU
while the majority want peaceful change through NLD and Aung
San Suu Kyi. Asked if the DKBA would support the NLD if it
there were free elections, the NLD leaders said it might.
They noted that DKBA support for the SPDC is based only on
the economic concessions it receives; otherwise it too
condemns SPDC policies. The NLD leaders felt that if the
DKBA had a choice it would join hands with the NLD.
Martinez