C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001567

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB/IDF, AND IO/EDA
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY
TREASURY FOR OASIA JEFF NEIL
CINCPAC FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2007
TAGS: EAID ECON BM UNDP
SUBJECT: RAZALI HEARS THE SAME TUNE ON ECONOMY, UNDP

REF: A. RANGOON 1479


B. RANGOON 1219

C. RANGOON 1068

D. RANGOON 1069

Classified By: COM CARMEN MARTINEZ FOR REASONS 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: UN Special Envoy for Burma Razali Ismail,
during his November visit to Rangoon, paid a call on the
SPDC's Minister for National Planning and Economic
Development, and focal point for SPDC-UN relations, U Soe
Tha. As he did during Razali's previous visit in August, the
Minister played Razali the same unbelievable tune: touting
the country's economic progress, explaining the necessity of
GOB "involvement" in UNDP programs, and justifying limiting
Aung San Suu Kyi's access to UN project sites. End summary.


2. (C) Post has recently obtained an official GOB readout of
the meeting between the SPDC's economic planning czar U Soe
Tha (the GOB focal point for UNDP and UNICEF projects in
Burma) and Razali when he visited Rangoon in mid-November.
During the brief meeting, Razali asked U Soe Tha about the
sagging Burmese economy and for a progress report on the
projects proposed by the UNDP for the fourth iteration of its
Human Development Initiative (HDI-IV).


3. (C) On the economy, U Soe Tha repeated almost verbatim his
message from August, citing purported year-on-year double
digit GDP growth rates thus far in FY 2002-03, an increase in
exports resulting in a trade surplus, and an "improving"
budgetary situation. He did admit that inflation was
"slightly high," but said that "necessary measures" were
being taken to reduce the inflation rate.


4. (C) On the UNDP's HDI-IV projects, U Soe Tha told Razali
that 6 of 7 proposed projects would likely get underway
sometime this month. However, it is unclear whether these
projects have actually been approved by the cabinet, or just
by "concerned ministries." We also understand that the
UNDP's planned agricultural sector review has gotten the nod.
On a less encouraging note, the Minister repeated his August
warning to Razali that "the GOB will be more involved in the
HDI-IV than it was in the HDI-III." Once again, though, the
Minister did not flesh out the details of this planned
"involvement."


5. (C) As he did in August, Razali expressed his concern that
ASSK be allowed to visit and study HDI-IV program sites. U
Soe Tha was unmoved, though, repeating his earlier reply that
government approval was necessary if any "outsider" wished to
study projects sites that were "the responsibility of
government organizations."


6. (C) Comment: Razali did not push U Soe Tha on the economy
as much as in August, leading us to think that the Envoy is
realizing that debating the finer points of economic reform
with the witless Minster is a fool's errand. The regime is
claiming that it is removing obstacles to the UNDP's HDI-IV
programs. However, UNDP tells us that progress on this front
has in fact been quite limited. Likewise, the repeated, but
vague, threat of increased government attention to UNDP
projects and the apparent continued official reluctance to
allow ASSK access to aid project sites are of concern. End
comment.
Martinez