AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000996

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2012
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH OPPOSITION LEADER

REF: KATHMANDU 995

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a May 23 meeting with Ambassador Malinowski and
British Charge Mitchell, Opposition Leader and General
Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist

SIPDIS
Leninist (UML) Madhav Nepal said that he is is prepared to
go along with the dissolution of Parliament and to
participate in fresh elections called for November 13. He
issued a caveat, however, that he would first have to get
approval from the party. While expressing some concern that
the move might be manipulated by "old forces," i.e., the
Palace, to reassert its interests, Nepal blamed former Prime
Minister G.P. Koirala for provoking a confrontation with
current Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba which, in Nepal's
words, left Deuba no other alternative but to dissolve
Parliament or to tender his resignation. After some
hesitation, Nepal did not rule out the possibility of UML
participation in an interim Cabinet. The Ambassador and his
British counterpart stressed the need for political maturity
at this critical juncture and advised Nepal that their two
governments will watch developments--and the behavior of
parties and individual political leaders--closely. This
crisis presents a crucial opportunity to restore good
governance, better counter the Maoists, and eliminate
corruption. Despite his generally positive comments, we
expect Nepal will wait to see which way political winds are
blowing before making any public commitments. End summary.

--------------
THE VIEW FROM THE UML
--------------


2. (C) On May 23 Ambassador Malinowski, accompanied by
British CDA Andrew Mitchell, called on Communist Party of
Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) General Secretary and
Leader of the Opposition Madhav Kumar Nepal to glean his
reaction to the surprise May 22 dissolution of Parliament and
call for fresh elections November 13 (septel). Nepal
squarely blamed former Prime Minister and ruling Nepali
Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala for provoking
a confrontation with Deuba over extension of the emergency in
the party's Central Working Committee (CWC) meeting (Reftel).
Koirala's sole motivation in the entire matter, Nepal
asserted, was his desire to return to power. Nepal
complained that Koirala is ever ready to sacrifice the
national good for personal ambition and gain. Venting on the
former PM, Nepal described him as the most corrupt person in
the country and as one whose word could not be trusted.
After corraling support in the CWC, Koirala was moving so
aggressively against the PM among the party MPs that Deuba
was left with only two alternatives: resign or dissolve
Parliament. Deuba was only doing what he had to do, Nepal
observed, describing the move as constitutional. The UML is
prepared to accept the decision and to participate in
elections in six months. (He issued a caveat, however, that
he would first have to get approval from the party.) That
said, however, he expressed some concern that the dissolution
of Parliament not be manipulated by "old forces," i.e., the
Palace, to regain some of the power lost since the
restoration of democracy in 1990. Elections must be free and
fair, he emphasized. He did not speculate about whether the
security situation will affect the ability to conduct such
elections beyond noting that his party would accept the
results of a free and fair election with no more than 30
percent voter turnout.


3. (C) Both the Ambassador and the British Charge noted the
intrinsically undemocratic nature of the CWC action the
previous day. How can a political party, whose leadership is
elected only by its members, force a decision on the
government, which is elected by all voting citizens of Nepal?
The Opposition Leader--himself a party leader--initially
responded with arguments in favor of the primacy of the
party, but eventually began to see the logic of the point of
the two envoys.

--------------
UML IN INTERIM CABINET?
--------------


4. (C) If Deuba appoints a new Cabinet, the Ambassador
asked, would the UML participate? The current crisis also
presents an opportunity for political leaders to do exactly
what they always talk about doing--better combating the
Maoist insurgency, tackling corruption and instituting good
governance. A smaller, multi-partisan "blue-ribbon" interim
Cabinet might be just the way to do it, he pointed out.
Nepal initially expressed some ambivalence about the
prospect, stating that, if asked, he would first have to
consult the party Central Committee. The Ambassador and the
British CDA both emphasized that as long-standing friends of
Nepal, their governments are frustrated by the lack of
political maturity so apparent in Kathmandu. Their
governments hope to be helpful, but at the same time have a
responsibility to their taxpayers to ensure that aid is well
spent, and have taken serious note of statements by Koirala
himself, as well as others (including the Opposition Leader),
that Nepal does not need foreign assistance to counter the
insurgency. While acknowledging that such statements are
often made for domestic political advantage, both envoys
noted that their governments could use assistance given to
Nepal in other places, if future Nepali governments and Prime
Ministers (including Madhav Nepal) did not want the
assistance. The time to sacrifice petty partisan interest for
the greater national good is now, they stressed; their
governments would be looking for signs of such commitment.
The Opposition Leader--who has himself made recent public
statements asserting national sovereignty and discounting the
need for foreign aid--took the hints on board. While
reiterating the need for prior party consultation, he no
longer as readily dismissed the possibility of working in an
interim Cabinet.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


5. (C) The UML leader has good reason to be amenable to new
elections and even the possibility of serving in an interim
Cabinet if asked. The Opposition is the only likely
beneficiary of the internecine warfare now raging within the
majority party. If Deuba and his Cabinet are expelled from
the Nepali Congress--and that remains a distinct
possibility--the largest and oldest Nepali party could
disintegrate into rival factions, clearing the way for the
UML (newly bolstered by its reunion with the ML in February)
in the next elections. But Madhav Nepal is too seasoned a
politician--and has been too long in the Opposition--to tip
his hand yet. We expect he will wait to see which way the
political wind is blowing before deciding how his party can
best capitalize on this new situation.
MALINOWSKI