MAOIST STATEMENT "WELCOMES" DIALOGUE; ARMY HITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000872 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2012 TAGS: PTER PGOV NP SUBJECT: MAOIST STATEMENT "WELCOMES" DIALOGUE; ARMY HITS INSURGENT TRAINING CAMP REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 838 ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 787 Classified By: A/DCM MICHAEL HOZA. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In its fourth public statement in less than a week, the Maoist leadership said it would "welcome" any initiative to resume dialogue. Interspersed with the usual bromides against "foreign interference," the statement indicates that local press reports--both accurate and inaccurate-- of possible USG military assistance to the Government of Nepal (GON) may be making the Maoists nervous. Given Maoist duplicity in the past, however, the GON is unlikely to react positively to this tepid overture. The Army reports six platoons have engaged Maoists massed at a training camp on the border of the western districts of Rolpa and Pyuthan. The Army estimates Maoist casualties at more than 70. End summary. -------------- PROLIFIC PRACHANDA -------------- ¶2. (U) In an uncharacteristically prolific burst, the Maoist leadership has issued four press statements in less than a week, each of them referring to the threat of foreign interference (Ref A). The most recent statement, dated May 1 and signed by Maoist party president Prachanda, made several additional references to the threat of foreign interference, but also stated the insurgents would "welcome" an inititiative to resume dialogue with the Government of Nepal (GON). The unofficial English translation of the press statement follows in para 3 below. ¶3. (U) Begin unofficial translation of Prachanda statement: Nepal Communist Party (Maoist) Central Committee Press Statement May 1, 2002 The threat of murder, oppression and terror imposed on the Nepali people by feudal regressive forces, which have been in power since the Royal Palace massacre in cooperation with imperialists, is completely wild and barbaric, with no respect for norms, values, customs and accepted practices. The behavior of the mercenaries, or the so-called Royal Nepal Army, over the last five months under the control and direction of these feudal murderers has made this quite clear. This feudalism has been unsuccessful in the face of the People's Liberation Army established by the sons and daughters of the great Nepali people. As a result, the feudal murderers, in a conspiracy to eliminate the very existence of the sovereignty of Nepal and the Nepali people, have called for imperialist interference and have announced bounties on their heads, demonstrating their monstrous character. In this adverse situation, it is historically compulsory for all political forces, intellectuals, and people who have faith in the country and the people to unite and begin undertaking effective initiatives for a positive political way out. We had clearly visualized the present difficult situation at the time of the Royal Palace carnage. It is no secret that we had then strongly raised our voices for the needs of all political parties, including those in Parliament and others outside of Parliament, to unite against feudal tyranny. Although late, today not only the intelligentsia and the people but also the major Parliamentary parties are raising this issue and the need for dialogue for a positive political way out and to avoid foreign interference. We welcome this initiative and process. We are ready to take any necessary steps to reach a logical conclusion for the liberation of the country from regressive feudalistic atrocities, foreign interference and oppression. We appeal to all not to make a mistake by taking our feeling of responsibility toward the country and the people as weakness or a desperate attempt to hold talks. We will be committed to oppose the so-called ruleres until the end if they continue to move ahead in the same way as today. No one should doubt this. Prachanda President Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) Central Office End text of translation. ¶4. (C) Although dated May 1, the statement was only released to the media late May 2. As of this writing, the GON has made no official reaction to the statement's oblique reference to resuming dialogue. In a May 2 meeting with the Ambassador, however, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said that he could not yet contemplate resuming dialogue with the Maoists. Because of their duplicitous behavior in the negotiations conducted during the previous year, they cannot be trusted, Deuba said. Negotiations might only be possible after GON security forces break the Maoists' strength; he indicated he does not think the GON is at that point yet. -------------- - RNA PLATOON ENGAGES MAOISTS IN ROLPA-PYUTHAN -------------- - ¶5. (C) On May 2 a 25-man Royal Nepal Army (RNA) platoon on night patrol near the border of Rolpa and Pyuthan Districts in western Nepal were attacked by a massive Maoist contingent, according to the RNA's Director of Military Operations Brig. Gen. Deepak Malla. The platoon withdrew to a hilltop and were reportedly holding off the insurgents as of COB the following day, according to Malla. An additional five RNA platoons are en route to the site, a few kilometers southeast of Liwang, a town visited by emboffs and members of the PACOM assessment team in April (Ref B). Malla said the RNA platoon had sustained four casualties, but estimated Maoist losses as high as 70. (Note: Local press reports, citing Ministry of Defense sources, put Maoist casualties at ¶40. End note.) ¶6. (C) Malla said the RNA had received intelligence of a large concentration of Maoists in the area; the patrol had been looking for signs of the presence when fired on. Malla added that Maoists were believed to have stockpiled significant quantities of weapons at the site, perhaps in anticipation of launching a large-scale attack on security forces in the near future. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Maoist press statements since the state of emergency have from time to time implied the insurgents might be open to resuming talks, while not stating explicitly they are ready to do so. Prachanda's May 1 statement--tepid though it is--is the most explicit articulation to date of the Maoists' attitude toward dialogue, and follows widespread reports, both accurate and inaccurate, of impending USG and other foreign military assistance to the GON. The strong signals of foreign support for the GON implicit in Deuba's upcoming meetings with President Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair are also undoubtedly a factor--hence the link between dialogue as a way to avert "foreign interference." ¶8. (C) If the RNA's information is correct, however, the Maoists were apparently planning a large-scale attack to coincide with or to follow this statement--a pattern they have adopted all too frequently in the past. We do not expect the Prime Minister or others in the GON to react positively to the Maoists' overture. MALINOWSKI