PM DEUBA ON THE CURRENT CRISIS: WORRIED, BUT

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000731 SIPDIS LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL NSC FOR MORIARTY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2012 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PHUM PREL PINR NP SUBJECT: PM DEUBA ON THE CURRENT CRISIS: WORRIED, BUT POSITIVE REF: A. KATHMANDU 710 ¶B. STATE 63807 ¶C. KATHMANDU 708 ¶D. KATHMANDU 672 Classified By: AMBASSADOR MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI, REASONS 1.5(B),(D) ¶1. (S) Summary. Prime Minister Deuba expressed gratitude for international assistance to Nepal during an April 12 meeting with U.S. and U.K. Ambassadors. To continue recent "positive steps," Deuba was hopeful that a White House meeting could be arranged during his upcoming visit to the U.S. Reviewing developments overnight, Deuba confirmed a Maoist attack on security forces in western Nepal and that India had extradited eight suspected Maoists to Nepal. Deuba hopes India will "talk sense" to visiting former Prime Minister Koirala, and added that he had not approved a meeting between Koirala and Maoist representatives. Deuba continues to worry about efforts by Koirala to unseat him. The PM enjoys good relations with the King, who took pains to assure him of Palace support for democracy. Nepal's National Security Council is now operational; next, Deuba hopes to institutionalize ways of combating public corruption. Post concludes that high-profile exposure during Deuba's upcoming trip to the U.S. will help him both fend off spoilers and crystallize international support. End Summary. Deuba Grateful for Foreign Assistance -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador and UK Ambassador Ronald Nash breakfasted with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba at the British residence April 12. Reviewing the current situation in Nepal, Deuba judged that "not all things are bad." He expressed great gratitude for the support he had received from the U.S. and British governments, and specifically acknowledged the presence in country of the U.S. military's PACOM assessment team and a team from the U.S. National Guard. Deuba appreciated that Assistant Secretary Rocca had included Nepal on the agenda in her recent talks in New Delhi. He also referred to helpful statements made by the U.K. State Minister when he had come through Kathmandu recently. Nepal's Foreign Secretary had just concluded good talks in Washington (Ref B) and London, and would travel to Moscow in coming weeks. The PM's own recent visit to Delhi had gone well, he judged. Prime Minister Deuba hopes he can travel to Washington to meet with the President in May, with the aim of building on what he termed "positive steps" in the bilateral relationship and the struggle against terrorism (Ref C). Maoists Continue Attacks, Target Infrastructure -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Deuba related that casualties would be high in an April 11 series of attacks when Maoists overran two police posts in western Nepal's Dang district (Septel). Nepal's security forces are stretched thin due to the need to guard the country's infrastructure, which the Maoists continue to attack, Deuba said. India Turns Over Maoists -------------- ¶5. (S) Confirming press reports on India's hand-over of eight wounded Maoists to Nepal, Deuba noted that the Indians had acted on information provided by Kathmandu (Septel). Deuba described the Maoists as low-level. (Note: At a U.S.-sponsored reception April 11, Chief of Army Staff Rana also made this claim to Ambassador.) (We note this is the first such action on India's part, and may have been the result of the series of U.S., U.K., and Nepalese visits to New Delhi.) Koirala to India -------------- ¶6. (C) Deuba hopes the Indians can "talk some sense" into former Prime Minister G.P. Koirala during Koirala's upcoming visit to India (Ref A). Asked by Ambassador about rumored plans for a meeting in India between Koirala and Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai, Deuba replied that he had not authorized talks between the former PM and the Maoists. (Note: COAS Rana told Ambassador April 11 that the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) had caught wind of plans for a Koirala-Bhattarai meeting in India, and would have Koirala under surveillance during his trip in order, presumably, to discredit the former PM. End Note.) Former PM's Shadow -------------- ¶7. (C) Deuba stated that G.P. Koirala continues to try to oust him (Ref A). Deuba is "quite worried" about this. He sees option in dissolving the government and calling for new elections to give him six more months, at least. The Ambassadors asked the Prime Minister whether elections could be held under current security conditions, pointed out the added expense to an already-strapped treasury, and that an election would further stretch Nepal's security assets. Opposition Aiming for 7-10 Split -------------- ¶8. (C) Deuba does not think the main opposition party, CPN-UML, is working to unseat him at this time. Rather, the opposition seeks to fragment the ruling Nepali Congress Party (NCP). After Deuba was unseated by G.P. Koirala in 1997, CNP-UML leader Madhav Nepal approached him about joining forces. Deuba had declined. Relations with King -------------- ¶9. (C) The PM's visit to western Nepal with the King and the COAS (Ref D) had been "positive" and had boosted morale, Deuba said. He added that his relations with the King are good, though he understood that Koirala had problems with the current King. The King had assured Deuba that he supports the present democratic system. Pending Security Measures -------------- ¶10. (C) Deuba told the Ambassadors he had called an all-party meeting for April 15 to discuss ways of heading off the upcoming general strike, or "bandh," scheduled for April 23-27. He plans to hold political rallies and similar events to get people into the streets. The PM also pointed out that Nepal's newly formed National Security Council had begun to function. One of the NSC's functions is to investigate human rights abuses, he noted, and the head of the NSC himself will handle the human rights portfolio. New Measure to Control Endemic Corruption -------------- ¶11. (C) Asked about corruption in his administration, Deuba stated that he knew that at least half of his cabinet members were corrupt, but his government would fall if he moved to get rid of them. A survey of office-holders' property was underway; this would be used as a benchmark later on to see who had acquired substantial property during their term of office. Deuba also noted that a new anti-corruption bill had been passed by the lower house of Parliament. (Note: A vote in the upper house could come as early as the evening of April 12, the Parliament Secretariat told us.) Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) During breakfast, Deuba's obvious pleasure at growing international support for Nepal and India's cooperation in the return of the wounded Maoists was tempered by his distress over the overnight attacks in western Nepal. Although his position looks secure for now (Ref A),he faces enormous challenges in the days to come. Meetings at the highest level in Washington will raise his standing both at home and abroad and ensure a measure of continuity as Nepal grapples with the increasingly menacing Maoist insurgency. MALINOWSKI