PM DEUBA FACES DOWN MOUNTING OPPOSITION, CRITICISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000672

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2012
TAGS: PGOV NEPAL'>NP
SUBJECT: PM DEUBA FACES DOWN MOUNTING OPPOSITION, CRITICISM

REF: KATHMANDU 0485

Classified By: AMB MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5(B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Ever-present rumors that former Prime Minister and
ruling NEPALi Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala
continues to plot the political downfall of sitting PM Sher
Bahadur Deuba have increased in virulence after a three-day
Opposition boycott of Parliament and multi-partisan
discontent at Deuba's perceived failures, including an
inability to control the Royal NEPAL Army (RNA). While there
is doubtless some truth in such criticisms--especially those
citing the PM's inability to provide a new vision since the
collapse of dialogue with the Maoists November 23--the real
reason has more to do with Koirala's continued efforts to
undermine his long-time political rival's position and with
others smelling the blood in the water. The PM appears to
have faced down the immediate threat for now, but absent an
appreciable improvement in the security situation, we expect
the "Dump Deuba" drumbeat to continue. End summary.


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THE AXE ABOVE DEUBA'S HEAD
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2. (C) Ever-present rumors that former Prime Minister and
ruling NEPALi Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala
continues to plot the political downfall of sitting PM Sher
Bahadur Deuba have increased in virulence. Members of the
NEPALi Congress, including some not habitually associated
with the Koirala camp, have assured us on several recent
occasions that they have sufficient support to win a vote of
no confidence against Deuba in Parliament. Govinda Raj
Joshi, a former Home Minister and long-time Koirala stalwart,
told poloff Opposition Members of Parliament, including the
small, left-wing National People's Front and United People's
Front, have expressed dissatisfaction with Deuba and asked
the ruling party to bring a vote of no confidence to oust
him. Joshi also claimed that a majority of district party
presidents, in Kathmandu for an April 1 meeting, complained
of the continued lack of security confronting them in
outlying areas, said they felt abandoned by the present
government, and made a similar request. Arjun Narasingh
K.C., NEPALi Congress Party Spokesman, confirmed to the
Ambassador discussion of such a plan, but stressed that he
and others in the party were trying to convince Koirala to
hold off until after the state of emergency runs out at the
end of May. Chin Kaji Shrestha, a former NC MP from Gorkha,
also asserted that enough pro-Koirala votes were already
lined up to dump Deuba.


3. (C) On March 27 members of the local NGO Human Rights
Organization of NEPAL (HURON) told poloff that the Koirala
camp had already secured the tacit support of the main
Opposition party, the Communist Party of NEPAL - United
Marxist Leninist (UML) and the third largest party, the
Rastriya Prajatantra Pakshye (RPP) to dump Deuba. They
alleged RPP President and former PM Surya Bahadur Thapa had
confirmed the planned move to them. (Note: No one in either
the UML or RPP has confirmed such a plan to us. Indeed, RPP
MP Pashupati Rana told the Ambassador that he saw no
realistic alternative to Deuba as PM. End note.) According
to HURON, the Opposition parties believe that Deuba is unable
to exercise effective control over the RNA and are
increasingly unhappy with the Army's performance in outlying
districts--including alleged harassment of their
activists--during the state of emergency. Bharat Man
Adhikari, a UML MP, while not explicitly confirming that his
party had been approached by Koirala, said he understood some
NC MPs were collecting signatures against Deuba. He noted to
poloff the UML's concern at the perceived lack of civilian
control over the RNA. The way the Constitution is written,
the RNA's primary allegiance is to the King, Adhikari
concluded, and not to the Parliamentary democracy. (Note:
RNA officers' formal oath is also to the King. End note.)
In general, he faulted Deuba for failing to come up with
workable socio-economic programs to address the grievances
of the poor. A journalist echoed some of these criticisms in
private, saying Deuba seems to lack the vision for a
comprehensive program to lead NEPAL into a better future.
Policy-making is ad hoc at best and non-existent at worst.
The continued lack of civilian government presence in
Maoist-affected districts has also hurt Deuba, the journalist
observed, underiming critical support among the beleaguered
district party chairmen in these embattled outposts.

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RANA REMARKS RANKLE
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4. (U) A March 27 speech given by Chief of Army Staff
(COAS) Gen. Prajwalla SJB Rana to graduates of the command
and staff training college in Kathmandu apparently only
aggravated some politicians' displeasure with the military
leadership. In his comments, which received wide coverage in
the local media, Rana castigated politicians of all parties
for what he viewed as their failure to provide adequate
democratic leadership. According to translated excerpts from
his speech, Rana demanded, "Who brought the nation to its
present condition? Is this the creation of bad governance,
or is it something the army has done? . . . In a country
where there is a democracy, elected people's representatives
and an elected majority government, can the state of
emergency be declared just because the army wants it? . . Is
it right to blame the Royal NEPALese Army, the protector of
national security, for a situation which is the result of 12
years of political factors?" Stating that the RNA is
fulfilling its duties in protecting the country, Rana
questioned why representatives from Maoist-affected areas
were not visiting their constituencies, and criticized them
for "not helping the security forces in the campaign against
terrorists in their constituencies."


5. (U) Rana went on to lambaste politicians for playing
"selfish games of factional dominance" at a time of national
crisis. Only the Prime Minister and some of the younger
ministers give the RNA the support it needs, Rana charged.
Acknowledging that "there may have been some lapses on our
side," Rana maintained that in general the RNA was sensitive
to the need "that innocent people should not suffer any
losses." Addressing members of the media, he appealed to
them "to ensure a sense of security to all citizens" and
"help raise the morale of the army." "False" and/or
"confusing" news items might have "a negative impact on the
trust and confidence that we have earned from the NEPALi
people," he warned, concluding that "in this time of crisis
it is necessary to keep our differences on hold." (Note:
Two journalists, whose cases had attracted wide and generally
unfavorable coverage, had just been released from RNA custody
the previous day. End note.)

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BOYCOTTS R US: OPPOSITION WALKS OUT OF PARLIAMENT;
SHUNS ALL-PARTY MEETING CALLED BY DEUBA
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6. (U) Many perceived Rana's speech as a direct slap at
Koirala, who was PM for many of the 12 years of NEPAL's
democracy. Rana was also likely responding in part to
ongoing, increasingly public criticism from Opposition
parties and the pro-Koirala faction of the NEPALi Congress
Party of the RNA's performance under the emergency thus far.
On March 25 and 26 the five MPs from the far left-wing
National People's Front walked out of Parliament in protest
of the March 14 killings of three of their party activists
after their arrests by the RNA in a jungle in Argal, Baglung
District. (Note: The official Ministry of Defense press
release described the dead men as Maoists. End note.) Other
Opposition MPs accused the RNA of committing "excesses" under
the emergency, including extra-judicial killings of civilians
wrongly suspected of being Maoists. Following Rana's
remarks, Opposition MPs staged a three-day boycott of
Parliament March 28-30, demanding Deuba, as Minister of
Defense, seek clarification from the Army Chief. Also at
issue, according to several Opposition MPs, were Deuba's lack
of progress on his promise to review proposals for
constitutional amendments (Ref A) and the GON's failure to
exempt mainstream political parties' meetings from the ban on
public assemblies during the emergency. Opposition parties
also boycotted an all-party meeting called by Deuba March 27
to discuss both the upcoming April 2-6 general strike called
by the Maoists and proposed constitutional amendments.
Before walking out March 29, Opposition MPs (along with some
in the NEPALi Congress) took turns denouncing COAS Rana for
his remarks and PM Deuba for not denouncing Rana. (The PM
was not in Parliament to hear these sentiments; he was
traveling in the Western region with the King and the
controversial Army Chief, giving rise to the inevitable
conclusion among some, including in the NC, that a
"conspiracy" was afoot.) Opposition Leader Madhav NEPAL was
particularly incensed, describing Deuba as no more than a
"robot" running "a puppet government."


7. (U) On March 31 Koirala called an all-party meeting at
the NC central office, which, in contrast to the March 27
meeting called by Deuba, the Opposition attended. The put-out
party leaders agreed to demand an explanation from Rana, via
the PM, of his "objectionable" remarks, but stopped short of
calling for Deuba's resignation.

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DEUBA "CAUTIONS" ARMY CHIEF;
CALMS MIFFED MPS
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8. (U) After his return from the West, on April 1 the PM
issued a statement "cautioning" the Army Chief to remember
that "the Royal NEPAL Army is a non-political body" and
should stay out of politics. At the same time, Deuba
commended the RNA for its efforts to support and defend
multi-party democracy, which he described as under siege from
the Maoists. The PM also issued the desired directives
allowing political party meetings and sent them to the King
for approval. On the same day, Rana appeared before
indignant members of the State Affairs Committee in
Parliament for three hours to explain himself. Lawmakers
emerged from that session mollified, with one reporting that
Rana had said his comments were misunderstood.


9. (C) RPP MP Pashupati Rana told Ambassador April 3 that
Deuba had cleverly worked out a compromise, with clearance
from the King, between the Army Chief and the Opposition
Leader on the language of the statement. The NEPALi word for
"caution" carries a somewhat stronger connotation than in
English so that the MPs read Deuba's comparatively anodyne
statement on the Army Chief's comments as a rebuke. The
RPP's Rana sees Deuba's hand as now strengthened by his
ability to emerge unscathed from the contretemps. For now,
the seething controversy sparked by the Army Chief's remarks,
which had managed to push the looming, potentially disastrous
five-day Maoist strike completely out of the headlines, has
rapidly fizzled out.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) Koirala may criticize Deuba's failure to exert
control over the RNA, but his own abysmal relations with the
RNA during his last tenure as PM helped contribute to his
eventual decision to resign. The Army would be unlikely to
welcome Koirala back as PM--which not-too subtle message the
Army Chief may have been trying to convey in his public
comments. Rana has come under increasing heat in recent days
for alleged excesses by the RNA in the field; his remarks may
also have been intended in part to deflect some of that. But
some of his criticisms--especially about the chronic lack of
political unity at times of national crisis--are right on
target, as was so aptly demonstrated by the MPs' histrionic,
self-absorbed over-reaction that preoccupied Parliamentary
proceedings to the exclusion of other pressing issues, such
as the impending Maoist strike, that threaten the nation. At
the same time, some of the growing criticisms of Deuba, such
as his all-too apparent lack of vision on how to address
long-standing socio-economic grievances the Maoists play
upon, also have some truth. The real reason behind any move
to dump Deuba, however, likely has more to do with Koirala's
habitual efforts to come back into power--and with
opportunists in the Opposition and the ruling party smelling
the blood in the water-- than with any particular
dissatisfaction with Deuba. For now, Deuba appears to have
dodged this bullet, but Koirala can be counted on, as always,
to keep trying.
MALINOWSKI