NEPAL: MAOISTS SEEKING DIALOGUE FOR TACTICAL ENDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 002302 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2012 TAGS: PTER PGOV NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS SEEKING DIALOGUE FOR TACTICAL ENDS REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 2052 ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 2295 Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A December 3 statement by Maoist leader Prachanda claimed that the insurgents are suspending violent attacks against infrastructure and against mainstream political party members in order to create a conducive environment for dialogue. Despite their frequent calls for dialogue with the Governent of Nepal (GON),however, the Maoists are likely not sincere about seeking a peaceful, permanent resolution to the conflict and may attempt to use dialogue for tactical purposes. As long as the GON realizes this--and we believe it does--it should nonetheless remain open to the possibility of dialogue with the insurgents, both as a way to achieve progress on important humanitarian issues and as a way to forge common ground with the political parties against the insurgents. End summary. -------------- -------------- MAOISTS CLAIM NO MORE ATTACKS AGAINST INFRASTRUCTURE, MAINSTREAM PARTY MEMBERS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The Maoist leadership continues to churn out turgid rhetoric alleging its willingness to seek dialogue with the Government of Nepal (GON)--despite an impending education strike that threatens to close all private schools in Kathmandu indefinitely (septel). A December 3 press release from Maoist leader Prachanda reported that a "recent" Politburo meeting called on "all political parties, organizations, associations, and intellectuals to forge a joint movement to end the present imbroglio by stressing the need for dialogue and discussion." To help create an environment conducive to dialogue, moreover, the Politburo reportedly directed party members "not to attack the workers of any political party (the party will denounce them if they are criminals or if they leaked information to the security forces and take the case before the responsible leader of the same party)." According to the press statement, the Politburo also decided "not to sabotage physical infrastructure directly linked to the public welfare." Finally, the meeting reiterated its demands "for a roundtable discussion (with the GON, parties, civil society on modalities for dialogue),interim government, and the importance of a constituent assembly." As of COB December 4, the GON had no official reaction to the press release. -------------- -------------- THOSE WHO OUGHT TO KNOW QUESTION MAOISTS' SINCERITY -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Their frequent calls for dialogue notwithstanding, the Maoists are probably not sincere about seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict, according to political land NGO sources who claim to have contact with the insurgents. Instead, the Maoists most likely want talks for their tactical value--both as a way to buy time and in order to exert concerted pressure from civil society, political parties, and the international community on the GON to accede to at least some Maoist demands. According to these sources, the Maoist leadership feels able to negotiate from a position of strength against an interim government that it believes lacks popular and political support. They also perceive a certain amount of favorable momentum from the international community in favor of dialogue that they believe they can use to their advantage. Former Deputy Prime Minister and Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) Central Committee member Bamdev Gautam observed to the Ambassador that Maoist calls for dialogue are likely a "tactic"; if so, the GON should remain aware of this probability and develop its "own tactics" as well. He noted with regret the brutal slaying by the Maoists of a former UML local leader in the east just two days previously. Krishna Pahadi of the Human Rights and Peace Society views the purported moratorium on killing political activists from other parties as an obvious bid to lure the mainstream political parties to side with the Maoists against the GON and the Palace. Subodh Pyakurel of the human rights NGO INSEC panned the press release as a Maoist trial balloon calculated simply to test the reactions of civil society and mainstream political parties. ¶4. (C) Sudip Pathak of the Human Rights Organization of Nepal (who claims to us and to the press to have an open channel to the Maoists) said the insurgents believe they have "matured" in their fight against the Royal Nepal Army and developed their fighting skills and their military organization. (Note: This view was also reflected in a recent extortion letter sent by the Maoists to a U.S.-owned business, which claimed "Our party has already developed a brigade level structure in its liberation army. Today the people's war has progressed from the stage of strategic balance into the transitional phase of strategic attack." End note.) At the same time, Pathak said, the Maoists (whose hard-core, armed strength he estimates at about 4,500) are fearful of being hurt by the post-9/11 global campaign against terrorism. By ostensibly pursuing dialogue, the Maoists hope to deflect criticism of their terrorist tactics, persuade the world they are a political force, and avoid anti-terrorist sanctions. Tighter border controls and greater vigilance by the Indians recently have also made life difficult for the Maoists, Pathak said, and may be influencing their push for dialogue. ¶5. (C) Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a far-left political activist with covert links to the Maoists, sounded the only dissenting note. Tuladhar says he believes the Maoists are "more serious" now than they were in late 2001, when Tuladhar acted as a facilitator in three rounds of abortive talks between the GON and the insurgents. The Maoists feel there is "international pressure for dialogue," he asserted, noting that the EU and India in particular "are in favor of dialogue." He acknowledged that tighter controls on the Indian side of the border might also be a factor in their willingness for talks. To create a conducive dialogue for talks, the GON must withdraw its earlier designation of the Maoists as terrorists (a demand repeated by the Maoist student union as a condition for the cancellation of the educational strike),he added. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) All indications are that the Maoists are trying to manipulate the perennial divisions within the body politic--this time between the political parties on the one hand and the Palace and the interim government on the other--for their own advantage (Ref B). This latest press release, which exempts "party workers" alone among all other civilian targets of Maoist brutality, is just the most recent chapter in this effort. Whether Maoist cadre keep Prachanda's pledge and suspend their customary violence against rival mainstream party activists and their destruction of infrastructure may provide a good indication of the Politburo's hold on its far-flung troops, but little else, we're afraid. The Maoists may be willing to change their tactics temporarily to gain an advantage, but we see no sign that they have compromised at all on their ultimate end--the overthrow, through violence if necessary, of the constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy. Like most of our interlocutors, we believe the Maoists may be pursuing dialogue in order to gain tactical advantage over the government. As long as the GON realizes this--and we believe it does--it should nonetheless remain open to the possibility of dialogue, both as a way to achieve progress on important humanitarian issues and as a way to forge common ground with the political parties against the insurgents. MALINOWSKI