NEPAL: PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR CONSENSUS AS DEADLINE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001947 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2012 TAGS: PGOV NP GON SUBJECT: NEPAL: PARTIES SCRAMBLE FOR CONSENSUS AS DEADLINE NEARS REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1938 ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 1932 Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) As the deadline set by King Gyanendra for nominations to an interim Cabinet approaches, politicians are scrambling to patch together a consensus response to the monarch's dismissal of the government of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his assumption of executive power October 4 (Ref B). Having met with the King individually over the past few days, party leaders are urging him to accept a group meeting in which they can press a joint position. Most of the largest parties have agreed that the caretaker Prime Minister and his new Cabinet should be drawn from the political arena and chosen on the basis of consensus. Whether or not the habitually quarrelsome parties can develop such a consensus by the October 9 deadline set by the King remains unclear. But many political leaders are increasingly fearful that he has already made up his mind about the composition of his new Cabinet and will forge ahead--with or without the parties' consent. End summary. -------------- CONSENSUS ON CONFRONTING THE KING -------------- ¶2. (C) As the October 9 deadline set by King Gyanendra for nominations to a caretaker government approaches (Ref B), leaders of six major political parties are working feverishly to develop consensus on how to respond to the monarch's dismissal of the government of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his move to set up a new Cabinet. (Note: As reported Ref A, Deuba's Nepali Congress Party (Democratic) has apparently decided not to participate in the new government and is not joining in the inter-party discussions. Deuba did meet privately with the King October 7. End note.) According to former Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat, the six parties have decided to extract guarantees from the King to respect three conditions. First, the new Prime Minister should be a political person. Second, the new Cabinet should be comprised of politicians in a similar ratio to those present in the most recent Parliament (giving an advantage to G.P. Koirala's Nepali Congress Party). Finally, the Prime Minister should be determined on the basis of consensus from the six political parties that had MPs in the previous Parliament. The parties are likely to meet later in the evening October 8 to articulate their joint position. Jhala Nath Khanal of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML),the largest Opposition party, later echoed many of Mahat's points, noting that the UML "would find it difficult to participate" in a new Cabinet that had not been formed on the basis of "an all-party understanding." The parties also have a number of technical questions about the powers of the interim Cabinet they want clarified before committing to participation (Ref A). ¶3. (C) How exactly to impress their message upon the King presents a problem for the parties, however. Apparently espousing the rubric about safety in numbers, they have been pressing the Palace to accept a group meeting in which all six party leaders present the joint position. Prabhakar Rana, a businessman with close ties to the Palace, told the Ambassador October 8 that the King has so far staunchly resisted that overture, preferring instead to meet each leader individually. If the parties are unable to give the King their suggestions for a Cabinet by the deadline, the King will move ahead on his own, Rana indicated. Individual party leaders who have met the King over the past few days understand the King's impatience as well, and are reportedly uneasy about a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude they perceive in Gyanendra. Mahat said many expressed concern that the King has already made up his mind about the composition of the new Cabinet. The King needs the support of the political parties, with their extensive grass-roots organizations, if he hopes to win a hearts-and-minds battle against the Maoists in rural areas, Mahat said; in fact the King needs their support more than they need his. Khanal said UML leader Madhav Nepal, who met the King October 6, was "a little bit worried" that the King appeared to harbor "negative impressions" about political parties derived from "wrong information" fed to him by self-interested Palace sycophants. -------------- AND THE CONSENSUS CANDIDATE IS . . . . -------------- ¶4. (C) Although the parties may have decided the new PM should be a "consensus candidate," reaching consensus on the identity of that candidate may also be problematic when/if they meet later October 8. (Note: We've heard the name of Surya Bahadur Thapa, a former PM and current President of the National Democratic Party, Nepal's third largest party, is being floated. End note.) Mahat acknowledged that attaining consensus on such an important question among the six fractious parties will be difficult. Khanal said optimistically that his party was ready to forward names for the Cabinet as soon as it received "a positive signal" from the King on the stipulated concerns. When asked if the UML would back "a consensus candidate" that could come from another party, Khanal said the UML believes "the need of the hour" calls for all parties and all supporters of multi-party democracy to be united. "If we're divided, it will be a pity for the country." When pressed, however, he acknowledged the practical difficulties of the six parties formulating a consensus slate within the limited time remaining. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) The King's action seems to be achieving the near-impossible: shocking the usually contentious political parties into all-too-rare alignment and cooperation, however temporary that may be. It is regrettable, however, that the threat the Maoist insurgency poses to multi-party democracy was never deemed a similar "need of the hour" by these same parties. While the Palace has indicated it may relax some of the requirements it stipulated against members of the new Cabinet running in the next election (Ref A),it seems unlikely that the King will bend his standards enough to permit the same old faces--especially that of former PM G.P. Koirala--to resurface in the Cabinet. Decisiveness is not the political parties' strong suit; the longer they dither, the faster the deadline approaches. If the parties fail to meet the October 9 deadline set by the King, they will be hard pressed to explain why they were unable to rise to this offer. By all indications, October 9 may see a confrontation between Gyanendra's challenge and the parties' preconditions. MALINOWSKI