NEPAL'S ELECTION COMMISSION RULES AGAINST PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001811

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2012
TAGS: PGOV NEPAL'>NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S ELECTION COMMISSION RULES AGAINST PRIME
MINISTER'S FACTION

REF: KATHMANDU 1515

Classified By: AMB. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).


1. (SBU) Summary: On September 17 the Election Commission
(EC) handed down what it described as a provisional decision
that the faction of the NEPALi Congress Party led by former
Prime Minister and NEPALi Congress Party President Girija
Prasad Koirala has the right to use the party name, symbol
and flag during upcoming national elections November 13. The
rival faction, led by current Prime Minister Sher Bahadur
Deuba, will likely take the EC decision to the Supreme Court
and attempt to "freeze" use of the party symbol by the
Koirala faction during the elections. End summary.


2. (U) On September 17 the three-member Election Commission
(EC) handed down its long-awaited decision on the legitimacy
of rival NEPALi Congress Party factions. The question has
been pending since the Central Working Committee of the
NEPALi Congress, headed by Party President and former Prime
Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, expelled current Prime
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from the party in May. The
decision determines which faction may use the party name,
flag--and most important in a country with about a sixty
percent literacy rate--symbol during upcoming general
elections scheduled for November 13.


3. (U) In an official statement, the EC said that after
reviewing the cases presented by both factions, it "was still
not satisfied" fully about the legitimacy of the competing
claims. In fact, the statement continued, both factions
claim an "almost equal number" of General Convention
members--the criterion by which party leadership is
determined. Without enough time before imminent elections to
consider more fully the competing claims, however, the EC
statement said its members decided "for the time being" that
the Koirala faction, which registered with the EC before the
deadline, "is granted recognition" explicitly "for the
purpose of the forthcoming general elections." The Deuba
faction, the decision continues, should thus apply to the EC
for a separate symbol and party name within seven days if it
plans to contest elections.


4. (SBU) A Deuba confidant told us the faction is consulting
lawyers on next steps. He indicated that the PM may appeal
the EC decision to the Supreme Court and ask the Court to
"freeze" use of the party symbol during elections.


5. (C) In a September 12 meeting, King Gyanendra hinted to
the Ambassador that the EC decision would go Koirala's way.
A few days later, Major General Rukmangud Katuwal of the
National Security Council told the Ambassador that the Chief
Election Commissioner would back Deuba and that one of the
other Commissioners, a long-time Koirala supporter, would
back the former Prime Minister. The deciding vote would be
cast for Koirala by the third Commissioner under the
influence of three-time former PM Lokendra Bahadur Chand, who
now heads the National Democratic Party and who harbors a
long-standing animosity toward Deuba. The third
Commissioner, according to Katuwal, has a "mitr" relationship
with Chand. (Note: A "mitr" relationship is analogous to
the "blood brother" relationship among some groups of native
Americans, involving resultant obligations and favors. End
note.)


6. (C) Comment: Without the well-known NEPALi Congress
Party symbol, Deuba and company will face a tough electoral
challenge. The EC decision appears to leave the PM with two
alternatives: to attempt a reconciliation with long-time
rival Koirala or to challenge the ruling in the Supreme
Court. It appears for now that Deuba seems to opting for the
latter. We expect the loss of the symbol may prompt a
certain amount of defection from the Deuba ranks over to
Koirala.
MALINOWSKI