MORE EXPLOSIONS IN KATHMANDU AS STRIKE DATE NEARS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001693 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/OP/NEA STATE PLEASE ALSO PASS USAID - DCHA/OFDA LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL MANILA FOR USAID - DCHA/OFDA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PTER PGOV ASEC CASC NP SUBJECT: MORE EXPLOSIONS IN KATHMANDU AS STRIKE DATE NEARS REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1680 ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 1674 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Maoist insurgents continued their campaign of bombings in urban areas of the Kathmandu Valley throughout a long holiday weekend August 30-September 1. The explosions targeted businesses in the city, although two armed invasions of the homes of prominent politicians were also reported. Prime Minister Deuba, returning to the capital September 2, told reporters he had not yet decided whether to extend the state of emergency, which expired August 28. The bombings, a preface to a Maoist general strike declared for September 16, demonstrate the insurgents' ability--even after nine months of a state of emergency--to penetrate the extensive security cordon within the fortified capital. End summary. -------------- BOMB BLASTS JOLT CAPITAL -------------- ¶2. (U) Suspected Maoist insurgents have followed up an August 28 explosion at a shopping center in downtown Kathmandu (Ref B) with a string of similar incidents--almost daily--in busy commercial locations across the city. As noted Ref B, the string of bombings coincides both with the expiration of the state of emergency, which had been in near-continuous operation since late November, and the onset of a Maoist-declared "agitation campaign" to publicize a general strike, or "bandh," the insurgents have scheduled for September 16. Although only one person--an Army soldier attempting to defuse an explosive device August 29--has been killed in the blasts, the series of explosions is unnerving a capital made complacent by a comparatively quiet summer. ¶3. (U) In the early morning of August 29 a Royal Nepal Army (RNA) soldier attempting to defuse a bomb in Patan, about 6 km from the Embassy, was killed when the device detonated. The bomb had been wrapped in red cloth and placed near a utility pole at an intersection. On August 30--a religious holiday in Nepal--another early-morning bomb damaged a municipal office in Lalitpur, approximately 6 km from the Embassy. The RNA successfully defused another device left near a Nepal Telecommunications Corporation building in Kathmandu August 31. On September 1 separate explosions at an automobile showroom and near an ambulance parked outside the state-owned Salt Trading Corporation, both in downtown Kathmandu, caused extensive damage but no injuries. As in the earlier incidents, the explosions occurred in the early morning well before normal business and school hours. -------------- ATTACKS ON POLITICIANS -------------- ¶4. (U) Suspected Maoists have also staged attacks on the homes and persons of at least two politicians in the past few days. On August 30 insurgents set fire to the home of Minister of State for General Administration D.B. Lama in Nuwakot District, 70 km due north of Kathmandu. The minister was not home at the time, and no one was injured in the blaze. On September 1 the president of a local Nepali Congress district committee was shot by suspected insurgents at his home in Bhaktapur, 18 km east of Kathmandu. He remains in critical condition at a Kathmandu hospital. On August 28 unidentified gunmen invaded the Kathmandu home of a former MP of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, injuring his wife and child, and making off with an unspecified amount of cash and property. (Note: While it seems probable that common criminals, rather than Maoists, performed the latter attack, the success of this bold, broad-daylight home invasion in the heart of Kathmandu is just one more sign of the overall deterioration of law and order brought on by the insurgency. End note.) -------------- RETURN TO EMERGENCY? -------------- ¶5. (U) The Maoists' success in setting off a series of explosions in the heavily fortified capital has raised speculation that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba will ask the King to re-impose the state of emergency. (Note: The emergency expired August 28, while the PM was on an official visit to EU headquarters in Brussels. End note.) Returning to Kathmandu September 2, Deuba told reporters at the airport that he would weigh carefully whether to ask the King to re-impose the emergency after he consulting with his Cabinet, members of the security forces, and others. He assured reporters, as he has in the past, that the emergency, if re-imposed, will be lifted before general elections November ¶13. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Because of the early-morning timing of the explosions, it seems likely their purpose is to terrorize the general population and embarrass the security forces, rather than to kill and maim. After a fairly quiet summer, many Kathmanduites--probably including many within the upper ranks of the security forces--were beginning to feel complacent, confident that the RNA and a nine-month state of emergency had successfully banished most of the insurgents to the hinterlands. The insurgents' activities over the past few days have punctured some of that complacency. After several costly defeats in May and June, the Maoists have launched no large-scale operations against the security forces. It is too soon to tell if the losses have affected the Maoists' ability to mount such operations in the future, or if they have been lying low on purpose, regrouping, retraining and recruiting during the monsoon. Regardless of the reasons for their lack of activity, the long period of quiet has put pressure on the Maoists to demonstrate to their own cadre, to the Army, and to the general public, that they can still wreak havoc--even via small-scale activities like the string of bombings. Their ability to pull off such operations, literally under the noses of the Army and police in the heavily defended capital, is likely just enough to cow most of the urban population into adhering to the September 16 strike and to mobilize public support for re-imposition of the emergency. We expect the PM will soon ask the King to re-impose the state of emergency for at least the next two months. MALINOWSKI