UPDATE ON MAOIST INSURGENCY: JULY-AUGUST 2002

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 001640 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS STATE ALSO PASS USAID/DCHA/OFDA MANILA FOR USAID DCHA/OFDA LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2012 TAGS: PTER PGOV MCAP NP SUBJECT: UPDATE ON MAOIST INSURGENCY: JULY-AUGUST 2002 REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 1174 ¶B. (B) KATHMANDU 1315 ¶C. (C) KATHMANDU 1373 ¶D. (D) KATHMANDU 1408 ¶E. (E) KATHMANDU 1532 ¶F. (F) KATHMANDU 1619 Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5(B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) This message highligts significant events in the Maoist insurgency since July. On August 21 the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) attacked a Maoist training camp in Rolpa, reportedly killing 30 insurgents. Maoists continue to attack civilians and rural infrastructure, but staged no large-scale attacks on RNA or police during the period. Pledging to disrupt national elections in November, the insurgents have begun a campaign of threats and intimidation in some areas. The Government of India continues its cooperation in cracking down on Maoists believed to be operating in its territory. Interpol issued an international alert on several wanted Maoists. On August 19 a member of the Maoists' Joint Revolutionary Council surrendered to the National Human Rights Commission. End summary. -------------- RNA OFFENSIVE IN ROLPA -------------- ¶2. (C) Acting on intelligence in the largest offensive engagement since an attack on a Maoist training camp in Salyan on June 12 (Ref A),on August 21 the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) attacked a Maoist base in Thawang, Rolpa--the heartland of the insurgency--with two company-sized units (approximately 300 soldiers). According to initial reports, the RNA suffered one soldier killed in action and three wounded. At least 30 Maoists were reported killed, and five Enfield 303 rifles and large quantities of rice were recovered from the site. From July 1 to August 22, 2002, the Ministry of Defense reports a total of 193 Maoists killed by security forces. -------------- MAOIST ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS -------------- ¶3. (C) Although the Maoists have not staged any large-scale attacks on the security forces since May, the insurgents' campaign against civilian targets continues. Most observers expect the level of violence to increase as September 16--the date of a Maoist-proclaimed general strike--approaches (Ref C). Maoists reportedly have killed at least 18 civilians during the period, including three teachers, one newspaper editor, and 10 mainstream party activists. On July 10 a horde of several hundred Maoists attacked a village in southwestern Nepal, killing two men suspected of being informants and beating other villagers with iron rods. On August 1 Maoists abducted three Nepali civilians, including an employee of the British Gurkha Welfare organization and a radio announcer, from a bus in Rolpa. Other passengers were beaten and robbed. To date, the kidnapping victims' whereabouts remain unknown. On August 12 in southern Nepal insurgents killed former Maoist Tek Bahadur Thapa Magar, who had surrendered to the authorities. On August 16, a band of Maoists in western Nepal hacked to death Manohar Pratap Malla, the son of a former minister during the Panchayat regime. On August 20 Maoists killed Nawaraj Sharma, editor of a local newspaper in the mid-west district of Kalikot. ¶4. (U) The insurgents continue violent activities within the capital, albeit with more limited effect. On July 5 Maoists set off a bomb at the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress party office (Ref B),injuring ten, and at a private business college--owned by the Press Secretary for the Royal Palace--August 8, injuring six (Ref E). The insurgents have also kept up their attacks on local infrastructure, destoying the only Sanskrit school in eastern Nepal's Taplejung District with a socket bomb August 12. They disrupted transportation between the remote northern districts of Humla and Mugu with the destruction of a suspension bridge. On August 15 Maoists blew up the only power station in the capital of far northwestern Darchula District, leaving nearly 1500 families with no electricity and crippling the local economy. -------------- ANTI-ELECTORAL ACTIVITIES -------------- ¶5. (U) The Chief District Officers (CDO) of Pyuthan and Gorkha Districts in Nepal's mid-western hill region report Maoists have begun propagating anti-election slogans in local villages, spreading terror among the residents. The CDO in Nawalaparasi District in southern Nepal reports similar activities in the northern hilly belt of his jurisdiction. The level of actual intimidation is undoubtedly much higher. In the Kathmandu Valley, for example, one resident of Lalitpur District told emboff that Maoists had visited every household in his electoral ward to warn residents not to vote in the November 13 national elections. -------------- INDIAN COOPERATION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Critical to the Government of Nepal's (GON) relative success in countering the Maoists has been increasing and long-needed support from India, which shares 1600 km of border with Nepal (Ref D). The Indian government has banned the All Indian-Nepali Unity Society, an organization affiliated with Nepali Maoists, and in July cooperated in the arrest and extradition of nine Maoists wanted in Nepal. On July 10 the Indian Charge told the Nepal-India Friendship Association that his government will deploy members of India's Special Service Bureau to patrol the border in an effort to control Maoist and other cross-border criminal activities. On August 10 the Nepali press reported Indian schools in some districts along the Nepali border had been instructed not to register Nepali students who lack GON-issued identification. The Indians also staged a raid on a Maoist-occupied apartment in Darjeeling. -------------- INTERPOL COOPERATION -------------- ¶7. (U) At the request of the GON, Interpol issued an all-points bulletin against eight Maoists, including top leaders Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai and head of the Maoist student group Debendra Parajuli. (The Nepali press noted the Interpol website had inadvertently transposed Bhattarai's and Prachanda's pictures.) Also on the list: Agni Sapkota, one of the insurgents' negotiators who met with GON representatives three times during the 2001 ceasefire. Nepali police said they have asked Interpol to add other names to the list, including that of the Maoists' putative military commander, Ram Bahadur Thapa (a.k.a. "Badal"). -------------- NOTABLE SURRENDER -------------- ¶8. (U) Mukti Pradhan, on the GON's most-wanted list as a member of the Maoists' Joint Revolutionary Council, surrendered to the National Human Rights Commission on August 19 (Ref F). Pradhan's surrender is the first by a suspect on the most-wanted list. The GON had offered a USD 45,000 reward for information leading to his arrest. In all, the GON reports that nearly 16,000 former Maoists have surrendered. (Note: It seems likely that a good number of those who surrendered were not armed militants but rather former members of "people's governments" in areas previously under Maoist control. End note.) About 5400 suspected Maoists are reported to be in GON custody. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) The general perception within the GON and among many observers is that the Maoists, who have staged no major action against the security forces since May, are on the defensive. Cooperation from neighboring India has been particularly significant in helping the clampdown and in ratcheting up the pressure on the insurgents' leadership. Most observers expect the Maoists' small-scale attacks against civilian targets, including bombings and possible assassination attempts against senior government offials, to increase in tempo as the dates of the September 16 general strike and the November 13 national elections near. The Rolpa operation indicates the RNA's evolving ability to use intelligence successfully and to seize the offensive from the Maoists. MALINOWSKI