SECURITY FORCES' PROGRESS AND PITFALLS EAST OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001191

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS (REF YOUR CABLE 5166)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS PHUM NEPAL'>NP
SUBJECT: SECURITY FORCES' PROGRESS AND PITFALLS EAST OF
KATHMANDU

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Government of NEPAL (GON) security forces have made
progress against Maoist insurgents over the last few months
in the district directly east of Kathmandu, according to the
Chief District Officer (CDO) and head of the local police.
Maoist excesses, along with better cooperation between the
police and army, have helped turn the tide in favor of the
Government. Despite such progress, significant parts of the
district remain under effective Maoist control, particularly
at night, and more than half of the village-level leaders
have fled their posts. The ability of police and military to
ensure security much beyond district headquarters remains
severely constrained, calling into question the ability of
local authorities to administer upcoming elections in
November. The security forces risk alienating the local
population--and thus jeopardizing the gains made--by
continued use of heavyhanded tactics. End summary.

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SINDHUPALCHOWK IN A SNAPSHOT
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2. (U) On early June poloff and POL FSN traveled to the
district headquarters for Sindhupalchowk, directly east of
Kathmandu. The district headquarters is 84 km from
Kathmandu--about 25 km of which is over a winding, unpaved,
one-lane road. Although traveling during daylight hours on a
regular workday, the Embassy vehicle encountered little
traffic--no more than a handful of trucks and buses (and no
private cars or motorcycles)--on the entire round trip.
(Note: The district headquarters lies away from the one
good road in Sindhupalchowk, the Chinese-built Arrniko
Highway, which leads to the Chinese border. End note.)


3. (U) Sindhupalchowk District has a population of 350,000
and a per capita income of less than USD 100. About half of
the population are members of the majority NEPALi-speaking
group (Brahmins, Chhetri, and lower castes); about 30 percent
are ethnic Tamang. The principal occupation is farming,
primarily maize, millet, and rice, on small holdings.
Because of the hilly terrain, much of the cultivation is done
by terracing. The district boasts 235 km of road, only about
25 percent of which is paved. Total electricity consumption
does not exceed 10 MW, and there are only 215 telephone
numbers (more than half of which are in the district
headquarters) in use. There is one hospital and 54 higher
secondary schools. The district reported a moderate amount
of Maoist activity over the past year, with the most
significant incident being the March 13 ambush of a police
vehicle that killed six policemen. The insurgents have
destroyed 70 local government offices in the district since
the beginning of the insurgency, 28 of which were demolished
in just the past two months.

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CDO CITES SECURITY GAINS IN DISTRICT CAPITAL
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4. (SBU) CDO Kabiraj Khanal said that he and the current
Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) had only been at their
posts for two months. Because the former CDO and former DSP
did not like each other and could not work together, Khanal
said, the security forces "were not moving around in the
villages" on patrol, leaving the field clear for Maoist
insurgents to operate unhindered. The Maoists had used the
four-month ceasefire (July-November 2001),moreover, to
entrench themselves in the district, recruiting new followers
and establishing "jana sarkar" (people's governments) to
replace nearly all Village Development Committees (VDC),the
smallest unit of local government. (Note: Of 79 VDCs, 70
had "jana sarkar" when the state of emergency began in
November. End note.) The security situation has been
improving steadily since his arrival and the arrival of the
new DSP, Khanal claimed. Aggressive joint patrolling by the
Royal NEPAL Army (RNA) and the police (albeit during daylight
hours only) has helped reduce the Maoist grip on the
district, Khanal said. The insurgents now exercise control
in only "small, remote villages" several days' walk from the
district headquarters in good weather, are forced to move in
STATE FOR SA/INS (REF YOUR CABLE 5166)
smaller groups of only three or four to avoid detection, and
must rely on smaller, more easily concealed weapons.

5. (SBU) Khanal noted proudly the surrender of about 800
Maoists in the district, of whihc total 700 turned themselves
in during the past month. Nearly all such surrenders, he
acknowledged, were of former "jana sarkar" officials (e.g.,
people's irrigation officer; people's forestry officer--"the
Maoists have committees for everything")--rather than of
hard-core fighters. Of the 70 "jana sarkar" operating at the
onset of the emergency, 15 had officially surrendered and
been reclaimed by the Government. He pointed to a group fo
30-40 people milling about outside his office, identifying
them as, for the most part, former Maoists who had
surrendered and now must report on a regular basis to the
CDO. Former Maoists determined to have held a higher
position, such as village chief, are kept in custody. The
district jail now houses 42 Maoist suspects, he reported,
while "eight or nine" suspects had been killed in encounters
with the security forces.

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AND WHAT ABOUT ELECTIONS?
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6. (SBU) Despite recent progress, security remains the
greatest need in the district, Khanal said. Less than half
of the district's 79 VDC Chairmen actually live in their
villages, Khanal admitted (and some of those that do are in
"jana sarkar" VDCs). Nonetheless, he said he did not
anticipate significant difficulty in implementing the
government's decision to hold elections November 13. Even in
areas still effectively under Maoist control? poloff
queried. Khanal optimistically reiterated that the situation
is steadily improving and he anticipates no major problems.

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TO GET GUERRILLAS,
ACT LIKE GUERRILLAS
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7. (SBU) Poloff asked about a May 6 article in the
vernacular press claiming the extrajudicial killing of six
villagers in Thulo Sirubari, about 15 km from the district
headquarters. The six killed were "active supporters" of the
Maoists, the CDO asserted. Plainclothes RNA had moved into
the village following an attempted ambush on a police vehicle
in the area, he explained. The plainclothes soldiers were
dressed like Maoists and moved around greeting villagers with
the Maoist salute. One young man returned the greeting, and
they struck up a conversation. When uniformed RNA arrived on
the scene, according to Khanal, the young man tried to flee
and was shot. The soldiers then surrounded the village and
entered a house the dead man had earlier identified as
pro-Maoist, killing five of the occupants.


8. (SBU) Poloff asked why the soldiers had shot, rather
than arrested, the villagers, including a 70-year-old man,
especially since, according to the CDO's account, no one was
shooting at them. When you are fighting guerrillas, you must
think like guerrillas, the CDO opined, adding that the
soldiers could not have been sure that no one in the house
had guns and whether they would be fired upon. (Note:
Poloff did not have the opportunity to call upon the local
RNA commander to hear his account of events. End note.)

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POLICE POINT OF VIEW
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9. (SBU) DSP Ganesh Ayer commands a force of 300 policemen.
Before the emergency, there were 21 different police posts
in the district. Because of the difficulty of defending
isolated posts, however, that number has been cut back
significantly. In addition to the district headquarters,
police now maintain posts only in three locations, two of
them in proximity to an RNA outpost. Despite this drawdown,
Ayer corroborated the CDO's assertion that security has
improved. The Maoists are no longer as powerful as they
were, he stated, adding that nearly 10 people a day come in
to surrender. People are beginning to trust the security
forces now, especially since the Maoists "have shown their
hand" by destroying village-level infrastructure and
inflicting other atrocities on the local population. (Note:
Maoists murdered five civilians in different locations in
Sindhupalchowk during the month of May alone. End note.)
Villagers are thus starting to volunteer good, solid
information to the security forces. Stiffer patrols are
interrupting the Maoists' supply lines, he reported; they are
experiencing food shortages. Being so near the Chinese
border--which is much more difficult to cross without proper
documentation than the Indian border--is also helpful. Like
the CDO, he said he anticipates no problem in holding
elections in the troubled district on schedule. When asked
why not--especially since most VDCs remain
Maoist-affected--he responded, "Because the Prime Minister
has directed us" to provide adequate security for the
elections.

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OPPOSITION OUTLOOK
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10. (SBU) District Development Committee (DDC) Vice
Chairman Dhambar Aryal, a member of the Communist Party of
NEPAL-United Marxist Leninist (the largest Opposition
political party),complained that political activities have
been stalled because of the emergency. The emergency is "not
good for politics," and will hinder the parties' ability to
campaign, he predicted. He expressed some doubt that polling
will be able to take place in all 79 VDCs.


11. (SBU) Since the beginning of emergency in November, he
calculated that the Maoists had killed 11 civilians and the
RNA 28, "some of whom may have been Maoists," concluding that
"people have been doubly terrorized by the Maoists and the
RNA." The RNA's practice of moving in plainclothes has made
it difficult for the numerous political "opportunists" and
fair-weather Maoists who may have become nominal members of
the movement because that is what everyone else in the
vicinity was doing. Those being apprehended are usually not
hard-core Maoist strategists or fighters, he stressed, but
rather village-level members of an erstwhile "jana sarkar."
The DDC has a good relationship with the Army and police,
however. If a villager believes his family member is being
unjustly detained by the security forces, the DDC can usually
resolve the problem by talking to the local commanders. The
level of looting and extortion, so prevalent during the
ceasefire, has declined during the emergency, he
acknowledged. At times, the people have even gained the
confidence to confront the Maoists, in one instance forcing
the release of a local UML worker abducted by the insurgents.
On the down side, the insurgency continues to stall
development efforts in the area, he lamented. Civil servants
do not want to work in remote health posts or schools in the
district. A local road-building project has been put on hold
after Maoists torched a bulldozer.


12. (SBU) Of the 28 civilians killed so far by the security
forces, Aryal claimed at least three had been killed in
error: one in a case of mistaken identity and two in
crossfire. The RNA had admitted wrongdoing in one of the
cases and paid the family compensation. Aryal corroborated
most of what the CDO had reported about the young man
attempting to flee the RNA and being killed in Thulo
Sirubari. His account of the fate of the other five
villagers varied somewhat, however. In Aryal's version,
plainclothes RNA dressed like Maoists entered the village,
carrying a uniformed policeman they had tied up. Pretending
to be Maoists, the soldiers told the assembled villagers they
had captured a policeman, and asked for their suggestions on
what to do with this enemy of the people. The five who most
enthusiastically volunteered such suggestions--and identified
themselves as active Maoists in the process--were
subsequently taken out to the jungle and shot, Aryal claimed.

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COMMENT
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13. (SBU) Although only a few hours away from Kathmandu,
Sindhupalchowk seems far removed from the relative security,
prosperity, and self-absorption of the capital. The security
forces have undeniably made some progress, but their grip on
areas much more than a few kilometers outside the district
headquarters remains fragile. Much more will have to be done
to bolster security not just in district headquarters, but
also in more remote VDCs if credible elections are to be held
in November. While the Army may have improved its ability to
act on intelligence gleaned from local residents, the
military risks alienating the population--and losing access
to further intelligence--with its heavyhandedness. The
Embassy will raise with the military leadership the May 5
events in Thulo Sirubari as part of our continuing human
rights dialogue with the Royal NEPAL Army.
MALINOWSKI