Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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02KATHMANDU1055 | 2002-05-28 11:31:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Kathmandu |
1. (C) Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was expelled from the Nepali Congress Party for three years on May 26. As a counterattack, Deuba plans to call a party General Convention, with the possible aim of deposing Nepali Congress Party President G.P. Koirala from his post. On May 27 King Gyanendra re-imposed the state of national emergency, which had expired on May 25, by royal ordinance until August 27. Deuba has not yet formed a new Cabinet and told the Ambassador it may be a few weeks before he is able to do so. He reiterated to the Ambassador his commitment to holding free and fair elections by the November 13 scheduled date. Behind-the-scenes efforts to mend the rift between the PM and Party President Koirala continue, but for right now the oldest, largest party in the country seems remains polarized. End summary. -------------------------- NEPALI CONGRESS NO MORE -------------------------- 2. (SBU) As expected, on May 26 the Central Working Committee (CWC) of the Nepali Congress Party revoked Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's party membership after he defied its directive not to seek extension of the state of emergency. The expulsion, which will remain in effect for three years, follows the May 23 suspension of Deuba's party membership, and is only the most recent step in the unfolding confrontation between Deuba and Nepali Congress Party President G.P. Koirala. 3. (SBU) Accusing the Party leadership of "short-sightedness" and "jealousy," Deuba retaliated by announcing that he might try to convene a party General Convention. (Note: The General Convention meets every five years. However, the Party President must call an out-of-cycle General Convention if 25 percent of the Convention's 1,500 members sign a petition calling for such a meeting. End note.) The PM has signaled that he might try to use the special session of the General Convention to bring a no-confidence motion against Party President Koirala. (Note: Two-thirds of the membership is required to carry such a motion. It is not clear if Deuba would have the support within the party to carry such a vote. End note.) -------------------------- EMERGENCY EXTENDED -------------------------- 4. (U) Also as expected, on May 27 King Gyanendra re-instituted, by royal ordinance, the state of national emergency that had lapsed the previous day. The Prime Minister was forced to rely upon a royal ordinance to resurrect the emergency since neither house of Parliament--with the Lower House dissolved late May 22 and the Upper House prorogued on May 24--was in session when the emergency expired. Under the Constitution, the reinstated emergency may last for only an additional three months--until August 27. (Note: A Parliamentary extension would have bought the Government an additional six months. End note.) -------------------------- A RETROFITTED CABINET? NOT YET -------------------------- 5. (C) Deuba has made no move yet to refit his Cabinet--a Cabinet whose bloated size and general inefficiency proved a source of constant criticism for the PM from both inside and outside his party, as well as from donors, including us. The PM's much-anticipated May 24 televised address to the nation focused primarily on his reasons for seeking an extension to the emergency--and thus for defying his party's orders--and his decision to dissolve Parliament and call for new elections. Only two of the 39 members of his Cabinet have tendered resignations, one of whom--former Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat--has already signaled his willingness to rejoin a new Cabinet (Ref B). (Women, Children and Social Welfare Minister Kharel has rescinded his May 24 offer to resign and is back in.) At a May 27 dinner, the PM told the Ambassador he may have to defer addressing the question of a new Cabinet for at least a few weeks as his attention is riveted on more urgent matters, such as ensuring that free and fair elections take place as scheduled by November 13. -------------------------- COMMENT -------------------------- 6. (C) Party President G.P. Koirala's support is generally deemed more solid among party rank-and-file out in the districts. Thus Deuba's threat to convoke a General Convention--if indeed he could garner the signatures to do so--may be no more than a feint in the continuously escalating tit-for-tat between the PM and his rival that now threatens to split Nepali democracy's founding party. While some party insiders, such as former FinMin Mahat, continue to hold out hope that behind-the-scenes efforts may help defuse the confrontation, the rapid chain of events over the past weeek has not been especially promising. With each successive move, the antagonists raise the stakes still higher--and back themselves further and further into increasingly narrow corners. Koirala's strident claims of an anti-democratic conspiracy in Deuba's actions (Ref A) can only exacerbate the rift. That said, both combatants' sense of political survival--and the realization that neither can do well in the upcoming elections if the Nepali Congress splits--may yet succeed in keeping the strife-ridden party together. MALINOWSKI |