SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000809 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO A/S KANSTEINER AND P/DAS BELLAMY AND AF/S NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV SF NI ZI SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE FACILITATION CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D 1.(C) SOUTH AFRICAN HIGH COMMISSIONER NDOU TOLD US MARCH 26 THAT THE SOUTH AFRICAN/NIGERIAN FACILITATED TALKS BETWEEN THE GOZ/ZANU-PF AND THE MDC WOULD BEGIN APRIL 2 IN HARARE. HE SAID THAT TALKS THUS FAR HAD BEEN HELD SEPARATELY WITH THE TWO SIDES TO DISCUSS THE AGENDAS OF THE TWO, BUT THAT FACE-TO-FACE TALKS WOULD BEGIN NEXT TUESDAY. HE STRESSED THAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS/NIGERIANS WOULD NOT BE MEDIATING, BUT FACILITATING. HE DISCOUNTED ANY PROSPECT THAT THE WIDELY DIFFERING AGENDAS WOULD PREVENT ANY SERIOUS ENGAGEMENT, SAYING THAT EVEN SOME VENTING FROM BOTH SIDES WOULD BE USEFUL TO CLEAR THE AIR. NDOU SAID THAT THE AREAS TO BE DISCUSSED WOULD INCLUDE PEACE AND STABILITY, THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND LAND. ¶2. (C) HC NDOU BELIEVED THAT IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO REACH AGREEMENT RAPIDLY ON A NEW CONSTITUTION USING AS A BASE THE CONSTITUTION REJECTED IN THE 2000 REFERENDUM, AS COMPLEMENTED BY THE MANY PUBLIC DEBATES AND INPUTS RECEIVED SUBSEQUENTLY. (IRONICALLY, MDC FOREIGN AFFAIRS SPOKESMAN BITI MADE ALMOST THE SAME POINT TO US RECENTLY, ALTHOUGH HE WOULD LIKELY WANT TO SEE THE DRAFTING PROCESS DRIVEN BY CIVIL SOCIETY, NOT A GOVERNMENT-APPOINTED SYSTEM. NDOU ALSO BELIEVED THAT THE GOZ WAS FAR MORE OPEN TO ECONOMIC REFORM THAN ITS POST-ELECTIONS ACTIONS INDICATED. HE BELIEVED THAT THE GOZ RECOGNIZED THE PROFUNDITY OF ITS ECONOMIC CRISIS, BUT WOULD LEAVE SERIOUS ECONOMIC REFORM TO THE YET-TO-BE DESIGNATED NEW CABINET. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00809 271510Z 3.(C) NDOU SAID THAT HE DID NOT THINK THAT NEW ELECTIONS COULD BE HELD NOW UNDER THE SAME POLARIZED CONDITIONS. INSTEAD, ELECTIONS MUST COME AS THE RESULT OF AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD PEACE AND STABILITY. NDOU DECLINED TO BLAME ZANU-PF FOR MOST OF THE POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE, SAYING THERE WAS SOME VIOLENCE ON BOTH SIDES. HE ALSO DISAGREED THAT MUGABE WAS AT THE HEART OF ZIMBABWE'S PROBLEMS, SAYING IT WAS THE SYSTEM WHICH ENCOURAGED VIOLENCE AND POLARIZATION. ¶4. (U) THE ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL WHO IS FACILITATING THE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE JOINED NEXT WEEK BY SEVERAL ASSISTANTS, BUT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN FUNCTIONING WITH THE ACCOMPANIMENT OF THE HIGH COMMISSION. 5.(C) HC NDOU SAID THAT SOUTH AFRICA WOULD BE HELPING THE GOZ MEET ITS FOOD NEEDS, BUT NOT WITH CREDITS OR DONATIONS. INSTEAD THE SAG WOULD HELP LOCATE GRAIN FOR SALE AND SEEK TO OVERCOME TRANSPORTATION BOTTLENECKS. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: THE SAG VIEW OF THESE TALKS WHICH HE PROJECTS IS NOT OF PUTTING PRESSURE ON ONE OR BOTH SIDES TO REACH AGREEMENT, BUT RATHER ACCOMPANYING THE PROCESS UNTIL THEY AGREE ON KEY POINTS FOR RECONCILIATION. WE ARE DOUBTFUL THAT THE TWO PARTIES' RADICALLY DIFFERENT AGENDAS CAN BE BROUGHT TOGETHER AS READILY AS THE HC SEEMS TO ASSUME. SOME ANALYSTS HAVE EXPRESSED CONCERN TO US THAT MUGABE WILL EMBRACE A MOVE FOR A NEW CONSTITUTION IN THE HOPE THAT SUCH AN EFFORT WOULD DEFLATE MOMENTUM FOR A NEW ELECTION. END COMMENT. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00809 271510Z SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >