PRESIDENTS MBEKI, OBASANJO PROPOSE STRUCTURED DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000721 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER LONDON FOR GURNEY PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/12 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: PRESIDENTS MBEKI, OBASANJO PROPOSE STRUCTURED DIALOGUE BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) PRESIDENTS MBEKI AND OBASANJO MET SEPARATELY ON MARCH 18 WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ADVISOR, GANDI MUDZINGWA, THE SOUTH AFRICAN AND NIGERIAN LEADERS DID NOT PRESS FOR FORMATION OF A GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY IN THE MEETING WITH TSVANGIRAI. RATHER, THEY PROPOSED ESTABLISHMENT OF A STRUCTURED DIALOGUE BETWEEN ZANU-PF AND THE MDC, UNDER WHICH SOUTH AFRICAN AND NIGERIAN FACILITATORS WOULD COORDINATE A PROCESS BY WHICH THE TWO PARTIES COULD JOINTLY PLAN THE WAY FORWARD. TSVANGIRAI AGREED TO NAME KEY PARTY MEMBERS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DIALOGUE. ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA, THE MDC HEARD FROM OTHER SOURCES THAT MUGABE HAD AGREED TO THE PROPOSAL FOR INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE, AND EVEN FORMATION OF A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT, SO LONG AS TSVANGIRAI WAS NOT INCLUDED IN IT. ¶2. (C) MUDZINGWA WAS IN HIGH SPIRITS AND DESCRIBED THE MEETING AS "VERY POSITIVE." MBEKI AND OBASANJO, HE SAID, HAD ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE IS A POLITICAL CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE WHICH THE ELECTION DID NOT RESOLVE, AND THEY RECOGNIZED THE MDC AS A MAJOR POLITICAL FORCE THAT OUGHT TO BE INVOLVED IN HELPING PLAN THE COUNTRY'S NEXT STEPS. ¶3. (C) IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION, NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER WILBERFORCE JUTA TOLD US THAT MBEKI AND OBASANJO HAD MET ALONE WITH MUGABE. HE PROFESSED IGNORANCE OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THEIR DISCUSSION BUT SAID MUGABE SEEMED PLEASED AFTER EMERGING. JUTA, HOWEVER, DID PARTICIPATE IN MOST OF THE TSVANGIRAI MEETING, AND HE CONFIRMED MUCH OF MUDZINGWA'S READOUT. HE REPORTED THAT MBEKI AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00721 191600Z OBASANJO HAD PRESSED THE MDC TO ENGAGE IN DIALOGUE WITH ZANU-PF. TSVANGIRAI HAD REPLIED THAT HIS PARTY HAD ALWAYS BEEN OPEN TO SIPDIS PARTICIPATING IN A GENUINE DIALOGUE, BUT ZANU-PF HAD NEVER BEEN SERIOUS ABOUT THIS. MBEKI AND OBASANJO REPORTED THAT MUGABE HAD AGREED TO SUCH A DIALOGUE. ASKED FOR HELP IN DEVISING AN AGENDA FOR THE INTER-PARTY TALKS, MBEKI AND OBASANJO SAID IT WAS UP TO THE TWO SIDES TO DETERMINE THE AGENDA, BUT THEY OFFERED TO FACILITATE DISCUSSIONS. IT WAS AGREED THAT CHIEF SHONEKAN AND ANC SECRETARY KGALEMA MONTLANTHE (JUTA'S SPELLING) WOULD SERVE AS FACILITATORS FOR THE TALKS, WHICH WERE SET TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20. THE TALKS WILL APPARENTLY BE OPEN-ENDED, WITH NO END DATE SET AND A SECRETARIAT OFFICE TO BE ESTABLISHED. TSVANGIRAI UNDERTOOK TO MEET SIPDIS WITH HIS NATIONAL EXECUTIVE AND TO HAVE SPECIFIC AGENDA ITEMS READY FOR DISCUSSION BY MARCH 20. COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) DESPITE EARLIER SOUTH AFRICAN FOCUS ON A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT AS THE WAY FORWARD, MBEKI AND OBASANJO MUST HAVE COME TO THE REALIZATION THAT SIMPLY GETTING THE TWO PARTIES TO TALK TO EACH OTHER WAS AN ESSENTIAL FIRST STEP IN STANCHING FURTHER POLITICAL DETERIORATION HERE. ALTHOUGH THE TWO PRESIDENTS LIKELY HAVE THEIR OWN PREFERENCES OF WHERE THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE DIALOGUE LEAD, THEY DID NOT PRESS FOR AGREEMENT TO PARTICULAR OUTCOMES. TSVANGIRAI HAS SAID PUBLICLY IN RECENT DAYS THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO SIPDIS SEE A NEW ELECTION RUN UNDER INTERNATIONAL SUPERVISION, AN OPTION UNLIKELY TO HOLD ANY ATTRACTION FOR MUGABE. WE WILL KNOW SOON ENOUGH WHETHER MUGABE AND HIS REPRESENTATIVES PARTICIPATE GENUINELY IN THIS PROCESS OR WHETHER THEY WILL USE IT MERELY AS A DELAYING TACTIC TO GET THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OFF THEIR BACKS IN THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00721 191600Z SHORT-TERM. SINCE THE GOZ NEEDS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S HELP, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE CONTINUING PRESSURE ON THE ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT TO MAKE THIS WORK AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MDC TO HAVE ITS GRIEVANCES ADDRESSED WITH NIGERIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN WITNESSES. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >