ZIMBABWE: HOW MUGABE STOLE THE ELECTION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000713 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/12 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW MUGABE STOLE THE ELECTION; WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION UNDERWAY REF: A) HARARE 661, B) HARARE 644 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A WIDE VARIETY OF REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE'S RULING PARTY ENGAGED IN MASSIVE FRAUD DURING THE MARCH 9-11 PRESIDENTIAL POLL, ENABLING HIM TO CLAIM VICTORY. MANY OF THE NUMBERS DO NOT ADD UP, AND INFLATED RESULTS IN THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES AND OTHER AREAS CORRELATE WITH REPORTS OF POLICE AND ZANU-PF MILITIA DETAINING MDC POLLING AGENTS. SINCE THE ELECTION, RULING PARTY MILITIA, WAR VETERANS, AND FARM SQUATTERS HAVE ENGAGED IN WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION AGAINST MDC POLLING AGENTS AND OTHER OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS; AT LEAST FIVE MDC SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN KILLED SINCE THE ELECTION RESULTS WERE ANNOUNCED ON MARCH 13. END SUMMARY. -------------- THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP -------------- ¶2. (C) SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE ELECTION RESULTS HAVE ARISEN SINCE REGISTRAR-GENERAL TOBAIWA MUDEDE ANNOUNCED THEM ON MARCH 13. HIS FIGURES ARE AT ODDS WITH THOSE RELEASED BY THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC). ON MARCH 12, THE ESC RELEASED PROVINCE-BY-PROVINCE FIGURES FOR THE NUMBER OF VOTES CAST, TOTALING 3.17 MILLION VOTES. ON MARCH 13, MUDEDE'S FIGURES FOR VALID VOTES, RELEASED ON A CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00713 01 OF 04 191203Z CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY BASIS, ADD UP TO ONLY 3.03 MILLION, A DIFFERENCE OF 140,000 VOTES. THE NUMBER OF SPOILED BALLOTS ADDS UP TO ABOUT 48,000. THE QUESTION BECOMES: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OTHER 92,000 VOTES BETWEEN THE TIME THE ESC RELEASED ITS FIGURES AND THE RG ANNOUNCED ITS RESULTS? ¶3. (C) IN A MARCH 18 "DAILY NEWS" ARTICLE, THE MDC'S DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS, PAUL THEMBA-NYATHI, CLAIMED THAT CONSTITUENCY FIGURES GIVEN TO THE MDC BY THE ESC ARE STARKLY AT ODDS WITH THE OFFICIAL RESULTS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN BUBI-UMGUZA DISTRICT IN MATABELELAND NORTH, THE ESC SAID 46,993 PEOPLE VOTED, BUT THE RG SAID ONLY 29,340 VOTED, A DIFFERENCE OF 17,653. MOREOVER, MUGABE OBTAINED NEARLY 10,000 MORE VOTES THAN ZANU-PF DID IN THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, GIVING HIM A COMFORTABLE LEAD OF 4,500 VOTES OVER TSVANGIRAI. BUBI- UMGUZA VOTED OVERWHELMINGLY FOR THE MDC IN 2000 (BY A 2- TO-1 MARGIN). IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE THAT AN NDEBELE DISTRICT OF SUCH PRO-MDC SYMPATHIES WOULD MAKE SUCH AN ABOUT-FACE IN THE FACE OF STARVATION AND GREATER ECONOMIC HARDSHIP. NEARBY TSHOLOTSHO DISTRICT EXPERIENCED A SIMILAR REVERSAL OF FORTUNE BY GIVING MUGABE 700 MORE VOTES THAN TSVANGIRAI. ¶4. (C) THE NUMBERS IN MANY DISTRICTS OF MASHONALAND AND MASVINGO EQUALLY DEFY BELIEF. IN 24 CONSTITUENCIES IN MASHONALAND EAST, CENTRAL, WEST AND MASVINGO, ZANU-PF'S TOTALS INCREASED BY 5,000 TO 10,000 VOTES PER CONSTITUENCY OVER 2000, WHEREAS THE MDC'S NUMBERS REMAINED MOSTLY UNCHANGED OR DECLINED. SOME OF THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00713 01 OF 04 191203Z INCREASES MAY BE "NATURAL," DUE TO GREATER NAME RECOGNITION FOR MUGABE, ZANU-PF VOTER MOBILIZATION DRIVES, AND MORE MOBILE POLLING STATIONS FOR RESETTLED FARMERS. IN FACT, GREATER VOTER MOBILIZATION PLAYED A ROLE IN THE INCREASES OF SEVERAL THOUSAND ZANU-PF VOTES IN THE BINDURA, CHIKOMBA, AND BIKITA WEST BY-ELECTIONS LAST YEAR. EACH OF THESE BY-ELECTIONS OCCURRED INDIVIDUALLY AND ZANU-PF WAS ABLE TO FOCUS ITS RESOURCES ON THEM. HOWEVER, THIS YEAR, WHEN CHIKOMBA SEES 10,000 MORE ZANU-PF VOTES AND FEWER THAN 250 MORE FOR THE MDC, FOR EXAMPLE, VOTER MOBILIZATION IS NOT A LIKELY EXPLANATION, ESPECIALLY WHEN THIS FEAT IS REPEATED IN AT LEAST 40 OTHER CONSTITUENCIES NATIONWIDE AT THE SAME TIME. IN REALITY, IT WOULD BE MUCH EASIER TO SWITCH OR ADD ADDITIONAL BALLOT BOXES THAN TO GET AN ADDITIONAL 200,000 PEOPLE TO THE POLLS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NOWHERE IN THE COUNTRY DID TSVANGIRAI SEE SUCH A WILD INCREASE IN SUPPORT, EXCEPT IN CHIPINGE SOUTH WHERE THE ZANU-NDONGA VOTERS THREW THEIR SUPPORT TO TSVANGIRAI WHEN THEIR PARTY BOWED OUT OF THE RACE. -------------- HOW THE GRINCH STOLE THE ELECTION -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4873 PAGE 01 HARARE 00713 02 OF 04 191203Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 774BC8 191203Z /38 O 191149Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1248 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE OAU COLLECTIVE ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 000713 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/12 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW MUGABE STOLE THE ELECTION; WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION UNDERWAY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00713 02 OF 04 191203Z ¶5. (C) WHEN INFLATED NUMBERS IN THE MASHONALAND AND MASVINGO CONSTITUENCIES ARE CORRELATED WITH REPORTS OF MDC POLLING AGENTS BEING FORCED TO FLEE DURING THE POLL, IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT ZANU-PF HAD AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO STUFF THE BALLOT BOXES IN THOSE PROVINCES, AND SOME DISTRICTS IN OTHER PROVINCES. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT THE RG WAS VERY LATE IN ANNOUNCING THE RESULTS FOR MASHONALAND CENTRAL, THE PROVINCE WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF MUGABE VOTES OF ALL (REF A). ON MARCH 15, TWO MDC POLLING AGENTS, PHAINOS JASI AND JACK KANKUNI (PROTECT),APPROACHED US TO RELAY WHAT HAPPENED TO THEM AS THEY OBSERVED THE ELECTION IN MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH AND MUZARABANI CONSTITUENCIES, RESPECTIVELY (BOTH ARE IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL). THE POLLING DAYS WENT SMOOTHLY, BOTH SAID, BUT JUST AS THEY WERE ABOUT TO ACCOMPANY THE BALLOT BOXES TO THE COUNTING CENTER ON THE MORNING OF MARCH 11, A TRUCKLOAD OF WAR VETS AND YOUTH MILITIA ARRIVED. IN MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH, ABOUT 20 YOUTHS CHASED JASI TO A POLICE STATION, WHERE HE HID FOR SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE YOUTHS OUTSIDE DEMANDED "HIS HEAD." HE NEVER SAW THE BALLOT BOX AGAIN AND EVENTUALLY ESCAPED TO HARARE. JASI SAID ALL OF THE 24 OTHER MDC POLLING AGENTS IN MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH WERE CHASED OFF AS WELL; ONE OF THEM IS STILL MISSING. MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH SAW AN INCREASE OF 8,500 VOTES FOR MUGABE AND A DROP OF 800 FOR TSVANGIRAI. SIPDIS ¶6. (C) IN MUZARABANI, KANKUNI WAS NOT SO LUCKY. WHEN HE WAS ABOUT TO ACCOMPANY THE BALLOT BOX FROM CHOBOMBO VILLAGE TO THE COUNTING CENTER IN CENTENARY, A GROUP OF WAR VETS INTERCEPTED HIM AND TOLD HIM TO GO TO THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00713 02 OF 04 191203Z POLICE STATION IN CENTENARY. ABOUT 30 OTHER POLLING AGENTS WERE SIMILARLY DIVERTED TO THE POLICE. SHORTLY AFTER THEY ARRIVED, ABOUT 300 YOUTH AND WAR VETS ATTACKED THEM WITH STONES AND AX HANDLES, KANKUNI SAID (MUCH OF THE SKIN ON KANKUNI'S FACE HAD BEEN SCRAPED AWAY BY STONES). THE POLICE REFUSED TO INTERVENE, AND ALL OF THE POLLING AGENTS FLED INTO THE BUSH. KANKUNI SPENT A NIGHT IN A LOCAL SHELTER BEFORE MAKING HIS WAY BACK TO HARARE. MUZURABANI SAW AN INCREASE OF 5,800 VOTES FOR MUGABE AND AN INCREASE OF 250 FOR TSVANGIRAI. ¶7. (C) THE DETENTION OR KIDNAPPING OF MANY OPPOSITION POLLING AGENTS AND THE REFUSAL TO ACCREDIT MOST DOMESTIC ELECTION OBSERVERS PREVENTED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF MANY RURAL AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS. AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL REPORTED ON MARCH 14 THAT A TOTAL OF 1,400 PEOPLE WERE ARRESTED OR DETAINED OVER THE POLLING WEEKEND; MANY WERE ELECTION OBSERVERS OR POLLING AGENTS. THE ZIMBABWE REPUBLIC POLICE CLAIMED THAT 570 WERE ARRESTED IN THE SAME PERIOD FOR VIOLATING THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (ALL BUT TWO OF THEM FROM THE MDC). LINDSAY CAMPBELL, A COMMERCIAL FARMER AND MDC ACTIVIST NEAR MARONDERA IN MASHONALAND EAST, TOLD POLOFF THAT TWO POLLING AGENTS AND FIVE OTHER ELECTION OFFICIALS WERE DETAINED OR KIDNAPPED IN HER AREA OVER THE POLLING WEEKEND; FOUR ARE STILL MISSING. ¶8. (U) THE MDC ALSO CLAIMS THAT THE GOVERNMENT LEFT THE VOTERS ROLL IN A DELIBERATE SHAMBLES TO FACILITATE ELECTORAL FRAUD. THE MDC COMMISSIONED AN INDEPENDENT AUDIT OF THE INTERIM VOTERS ROLL THAT MUDEDE PROVIDED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00713 02 OF 04 191203Z THEM IN JANUARY (THE MDC WAS NEVER PROVIDED THE FINAL ROLL). THE AUDIT FOUND THAT BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT ON THE ROLL HAD MOVED OUT OF THEIR CONSTITUENCY OR DIED. IN FACT, IN A RANDOM CHECK OF 500 VOTERS WHOSE DEATHS HAD BEEN REGISTERED SINCE 1980, 80 PERCENT WERE STILL ON THE VOTERS ROLL. TOPPER WHITEHEAD, AN ACTIVIST FOR THE MDC, SAID THAT THE STATE OF THE VOTERS ROLL LEFT ZANU-PF WITH "ENORMOUS SCOPE FOR STUFFING BALLOT BOXES AND MULTIPLE VOTING IN AREAS WHERE WE HAD NO POLLING AGENTS." ¶9. (C) THE MDC CLAIMS THAT MEMBERS OF THE POLICE AND CIO POSED AS MDC POLLING AGENTS OR OTHER ELECTION OFFICIALS IN MANY AREAS. WE HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS INDEED OCCURRED. OUR TEAM THAT WAS DETAINED BY THE CHINHOYI POLICE (REF B) REPORTED BEING QUESTIONED AGGRESSIVELY BY THREE MEN IN THE POLICE STATION WEARING ESC VESTS. WHEN ASKED WHY THE ESC REQUIRED THEIR IDENTIFICATION AND WHAT THE ESC'S ROLE WAS IN A POLICE MATTER, THE THREE INITIALLY ADMITTED TO BEING POLICE OFFICERS, BUT LATER DENIED IT. ALSO, WHEN ASKED WHO THEIR SUPERIORS WERE, THE THREE INDICATED THE COMMANDING OFFICER OF THE POLICE STATION. ¶10. (C) OTHER REPORTS OF ELECTORAL MALFEASANCE HAVE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4874 PAGE 01 HARARE 00713 03 OF 04 191204Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 774BD3 191204Z /38 O 191149Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1249 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE OAU COLLECTIVE ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 000713 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/12 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW MUGABE STOLE THE ELECTION; WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION UNDERWAY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00713 03 OF 04 191204Z BEEN PILING UP SINCE THE RESULTS WERE ANNOUNCED: -- IN BUBI-UMGUZA CONSTITUENCY IN MATABELELAND NORTH, THE BALLOT BOX FOR THE MOBILE 19 POLLING STATION CONTAINED 137 VOTES WHEN IT WENT MISSING; WHEN IT TURNED UP AGAIN, IT HAD MORE THAN 1,000 ADDITIONAL BALLOT PAPERS IN IT, ACCORDING TO A PRESS REPORT. (BUBI-UMGUZA VOTED OVERWHELMINGLY FOR MUGABE; SEE PARAGRAPH 3.) -- OPPOSITION POLLING AGENTS REPORTEDLY COUNTED ABOUT 12,000 VOTERS OVER TWO DAYS IN TSHOLOTSHO CONSTITUENCY. HOWEVER, THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL ANNOUNCED THAT 21,000 HAD CAST BALLOTS. (TSHOLOTSHO WENT TO MUGABE; SEE PARAGRAPH 3.) -- SEVERAL FULL BALLOT BOXES WERE REPORTEDLY FOUND AT A MORTUARY IN CHITUNGWIZA (AN AREA OF OVERWHELMING MDC STRENGTH) OVER THE MARCH 16 WEEKEND, ACCORDING TO A LOCAL EMBASSY EMPLOYEE. -- SOUTH AFRICAN OBSERVERS CAUGHT A GROUP OF BULAWAYO WOMEN HANDING OUT MONEY BEFORE THE ELECTION TO ANYONE PROMISING TO VOTE FOR MUGABE, ACCORDING TO THE "ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT." THE WOMEN WERE SEEN TAKING DOWN THE NAMES AND ID NUMBERS OF THE RECIPIENTS. SIMILAR OPERATIONS WERE UNCOVERED IN OTHER PARTS OF BULAWAYO. MUGABE RECEIVED AN ADDITIONAL 7,500 VOTES, A 25 PERCENT INCREASE OVER 2000, IN BULAWAYO. -- THE CONSTITUENCY REGISTRAR IN MUTARE CENTRAL THREW OUT THE COUNT OF 155 POSTAL BALLOTS AFTER 25 POSTAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00713 03 OF 04 191204Z VOTES DISAPPEARED. THE DECISION CAME ONLY AFTER INNOCENT GONESE, THE MDC POLLING AGENT, STRENUOUSLY OBJECTED TO INCLUDING THE POSTAL BALLOTS WHEN THE DISAPPEARANCE OF SOME COULD NOT BE EXPLAINED. -------------- WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION UNDERWAY -------------- ¶11. (C) WAR VETERANS, ZANU-PF MILITIA, AND FARM SQUATTERS ARE ENACTING WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION AGAINST COMMERCIAL FARMERS, THEIR WORKERS, POLLING AGENTS AND OTHER MDC SUPPORTERS. SINCE MARCH 13, AT LEAST FIVE OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS HAVE BEEN KILLED. FRANCES LOVEMORE, THE ACTING DIRECTOR OF THE AMANI TRUST, A WELL-RESPECTED HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION IN ZIMBABWE, REPORTED TO POLOFF THAT HER OFFICE WAS OVERWHELMED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VICTIMS OF TORTURE AND DISPLACEMENT. AT LEAST 84 FARM WORKERS AND 22 POLLING AGENTS SOUGHT REFUGE WITH AMANI TRUST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOVEMORE ALSO REPORTED A LARGE UPSWING IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE BEING DETAINED BY ZANU-PF MILITIA, WHO APPARENTLY HAVE REOPENED "RE-EDUCATION" CAMPS FOR WAYWARD MDC MEMBERS. LOVEMORE STATED THAT AMANI TRUST PLANS TO ASK THE INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE OF THE RED CROSS (ICRC) IN ZIMBABWE TO SET UP A REFUGEE CAMP; AMANI CAN NO LONGER COPE WITH THE NUMBER THAT HAVE BEEN DISPLACED. ¶12. (C) BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF SOME OF THE REPORTS OF RETRIBUTION THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED: CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00713 03 OF 04 191204Z -- JASI AND KANKUNI (SEE PARAGRAPH 5) REPORTED THAT ZANU-PF MEMBERS TRACKED THEM DOWN TO THEIR HOMES IN HARARE AND CAME LOOKING FOR THEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT ON MARCH 15; THEY BOTH ESCAPED BUT ARE AFRAID TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. JASI REPORTED THAT TWO OTHER MDC POLLING AGENTS WHO WERE ASSIGNED TO MASHONALAND CENTRAL, BUT WERE RESIDING IN THE HARARE HIGH-DENSITY SUBURBS OF MBARE AND DVIVARESKWA, WERE TRACKED DOWN AND STABBED TO DEATH ON MARCH 14. ALL OTHER MDC POLLING AGENTS WHO WORKED IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL ARE ALSO BEING HUNTED, JASI SAID. -- LOVEMORE REPORTED MARCH 19 THAT IN UZUMBA-MARAMBA- PFUNGWE DISTRICT IN MASHONALAND EAST, ZANU-PF MILITIA ARE ACTIVELY SEEKING TO PUNISH THE 3,000 PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR THE MDC. -- THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) REPORTED THAT FARMER TERRY FORD WAS BLUDGEONED TO DEATH BY ABOUT 20 WAR VETS AND SETTLERS EARLY ON MARCH 18 ON HIS FARM NEAR NORTON. THE CFU REPORTED THAT ANOTHER FARM IN THE AREA WAS LOOTED LAST WEEK. -- AN UNIDENTIFIED MAN WAS BEATEN TO DEATH NEAR KWEKWE LAST WEEK AFTER HE WAS TAKEN TO A ZANU-PF "RE-EDUCATION" CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4875 PAGE 01 HARARE 00713 04 OF 04 191204Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 774BD9 191204Z /38 O 191149Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1250 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE OAU COLLECTIVE ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 000713 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/12 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: HOW MUGABE STOLE THE ELECTION; WIDESPREAD RETRIBUTION UNDERWAY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00713 04 OF 04 191204Z CAMP, ACCORDING TO THE AMANI TRUST. -- A SECURITY GUARD WORKING FOR FARMER JON RUTHERFORD NEAR MARONDERA DIED MARCH 15 FROM INJURIES SUSTAINED IN A BEATING BY ZANU-PF YOUTHS. RUTHERFORD WAS ALSO SEVERELY BEATEN AND HOSPITALIZED FOR FOUR DAYS. -- THE CHIPESA FARM HOUSE, OWNED BY MDC ACTIVISTS IAIN AND KERRY KAY, WAS LOOTED BY ZANU-PF MILITANTS ON MARCH ¶15. SOME OF THE LOOTERS SPORTED AK-47S AND POLICE RESERVIST UNIFORMS, AND BEAT SEVERAL FARM WORKERS. THE HOUSE'S FURNISHINGS WERE TAKEN AND THE FARM'S DIESEL AND FERTILIZER WERE ALSO STOLEN. THE CHIPESA FARM WAS VISITED BY ASSISTANT SECRETARY LORNE CRANER IN JANUARY. -- FIFTEEN FARMERS HAVE BEEN FORCED OFF THEIR PROPERTY SINCE THE ELECTION ENDED, ACCORDING TO THE CFU. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE ELECTION WOULD HAVE TURNED ENTIRELY ON THE BALLOT-STUFFING TRICKS DESCRIBED ABOVE, BUT BY OUR CAUTIOUS ESTIMATION IT MIGHT HAVE ADDED UP TO MORE THAN 300,000 ADDITIONAL VOTES FOR MUGABE -- THREE QUARTERS OF THE 427,000 MARGIN OF VICTORY. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SLASHING OF URBAN POLLING STATIONS AND TWO YEARS OF INTENSE INTIMIDATION AND VIOLENCE, FACTORS THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY BUT EVEN MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN VOTE RIGGING, IT BECOMES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00713 04 OF 04 191204Z CLEAR MUGABE WOULD HAVE BEEN HARD PUT TO WIN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION. END COMMENT. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >